4113 Goliad Dr · Canyon Creek, TX 76048

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2008 1.27 ac lot $179/sqft · 12% below area Est $278k · 12% under $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well Loved Home on over 1 Acre of land with Workshop and RV Hookups. Corner lot, fruit trees, firepit on open patio, front and back covered porches, storm door, split bedrooms, open concept, detached 2 stall carport. Island kitchen with breakfast bar, butler pantry, microwave, dishwasher and electric range. Large master suite with garden tub, separate shower, 2 walk in closets and two sinks. Utility Room large enough for full sized washer, dryer, freezer or 2nd fridge. Workshop with electricity, walk though door and double doors for large items. RV hook up with two 50 amp connections, number 4 wire. Inside Ac unit replaced in 2017. Most of the furniture can be purchased with the house.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Covered porch
• Large patio

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SPACIOUS LOT
• LARGE PATIO
• FIRE PIT
• COVERED PORCH
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Will not subdivide; Public records used for lot size
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Indian Harbor); Annual association fee (includes grounds maintenance, management fees, security); Community amenities: boat ramp, clubhouse, community dock, community pool, lake, marina, playground

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 2 covered/carport spaces; RV access/parking
• Security: Gated community; Perimeter fencing; Community security included with association
• Utilities: Co-op electric; MUD water; Septic; Private road; Municipal Utility District
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property; Deed restrictions
• Construction: Built in 2008; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Covered porch(es); Fire pit; Wood fencing; Large backyard with grass; Few trees; Corner lot; Acreage (approx. 1.27 acres); Workshop with electric; Easements for utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Butler's pantry; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (16 x 13); Two additional bedrooms on main level (11 x 12 and 8 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s); Window coverings; Ventilation
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room / separate utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-881/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Canyon Creek — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,102 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Emma Roberson Early Learning Academy (303 students, 86% FRL); Granbury Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 846 students, 68% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 43% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 930 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,154 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,538
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -11.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
912 Pawnee Trl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	7mo	$119,000	$89	83
822 Pawnee Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	13mo	$150,000	$112	81
907 Mojave Trl	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+10%)	4mo	$230,000	$152	75
1102 Pawnee Trl	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	10mo	$150,000	$112	64
4123 Seminole Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	6mo	$100,000	$69	52
4101 Brazos Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-14%)	12mo	$138,990	$118	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-48,041
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-62,336
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 930
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,942 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,236/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,034

Max offer price $232,036

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $65	-5% $-4	+0% $-73	+5% $-143	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-227	-5% $-150	+0% $-73	+5% $3	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $-11	base $-73	+0.5pp $-137	+1.0pp $-201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4014 Mountain Vista Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,495	$0.95	45d	1	0.49mi
3607 Sioux Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	1860	$2,100	$1.13	9d	1	0.98mi
4710 Llano St Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	45d	1	1.30mi
1418 Cheyenne Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1826	$2,400	$1.31	45d	1	1.32mi
2414 Forest Hill Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,150	$1.44	5d	1	1.40mi
2213 Beverly Dr Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1850	$2,300	$1.24	26d	1	1.42mi
2700 Steepleridge Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,895	$1.32	9d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $245,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $255,000 919-char remark
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $265,000 Active 919-char remark
17. 2023-04-17
    soldstatus
18. 2023-04-14
    soldstatus Closed 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Well Loved Home on over 1 Acre of land with Workshop and RV Hookups. Corner lot, fruit trees, firepit on open patio, front and back covered porches, storm door, split bedrooms, open concept, detached 2 stall carport. Island kitchen with breakfast bar, butler pantry, microwave, dishwasher and electric range. Large master suite with garden tub, separate shower, 2 walk in closets and two sinks. Utility Room large enough for full sized washer, dryer, freezer or 2nd fridge. Workshop with electricity, walk though door and double doors for large items. RV hook up with two 50 amp connections, number 4 wire. Inside Ac unit replaced in 2017. Most of the furniture can be purchased with the house.

19. 2023-03-17
    status Pending 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Well Loved Home on over 1 Acre of land with Workshop and RV Hookups. Corner lot, fruit trees, firepit on open patio, front and back covered porches, storm door, split bedrooms, open concept, detached 2 stall carport. Island kitchen with breakfast bar, butler pantry, microwave, dishwasher and electric range. Large master suite with garden tub, separate shower, 2 walk in closets and two sinks. Utility Room large enough for full sized washer, dryer, freezer or 2nd fridge. Workshop with electricity, walk though door and double doors for large items. RV hook up with two 50 amp connections, number 4 wire. Inside Ac unit replaced in 2017. Most of the furniture can be purchased with the house.

20. 2023-03-10
    historical Active Option Contract 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Well Loved Home on over 1 Acre of land with Workshop and RV Hookups. Corner lot, fruit trees, firepit on open patio, front and back covered porches, storm door, split bedrooms, open concept, detached 2 stall carport. Island kitchen with breakfast bar, butler pantry, microwave, dishwasher and electric range. Large master suite with garden tub, separate shower, 2 walk in closets and two sinks. Utility Room large enough for full sized washer, dryer, freezer or 2nd fridge. Workshop with electricity, walk though door and double doors for large items. RV hook up with two 50 amp connections, number 4 wire. Inside Ac unit replaced in 2017. Most of the furniture can be purchased with the house.

21. 2023-03-02
    listed $174,900 Active 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Well Loved Home on over 1 Acre of land with Workshop and RV Hookups. Corner lot, fruit trees, firepit on open patio, front and back covered porches, storm door, split bedrooms, open concept, detached 2 stall carport. Island kitchen with breakfast bar, butler pantry, microwave, dishwasher and electric range. Large master suite with garden tub, separate shower, 2 walk in closets and two sinks. Utility Room large enough for full sized washer, dryer, freezer or 2nd fridge. Workshop with electricity, walk though door and double doors for large items. RV hook up with two 50 amp connections, number 4 wire. Inside Ac unit replaced in 2017. Most of the furniture can be purchased with the house.

22. 2014-01-24
    historical
23. 2013-09-25
    listed $79,500 Active
24. 2012-04-20
    soldstatus Closed
25. 2012-04-20
    soldstatus
26. 2012-04-09
    status Pending
27. 2012-02-10
    price $22,500
28. 2011-12-07
    price $24,500
29. 2011-11-18
    price $25,500
30. 2011-08-22
    price $28,500
31. 2011-07-21
    price $31,000
32. 2011-07-08
    price $32,500
33. 2011-07-01
    listed $34,900 Active
34. 1998-11-10
    soldstatus
35. 1994-06-01
    soldstatus
36. 1993-09-10
    soldstatus
37. 1991-08-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,236 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,484 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,248/yr (+$187/mo · 100.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,236
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,864
• − Management: −$1,864
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$5,149
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,236
• After-tax cash flow: $355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Creek

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1102
• US rank: #19485

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+602.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $245,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $255,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-14 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-03-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-03-10 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-03-02 Listed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2014-01-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2013-09-25 Listed $79,500 NTREIS
• 2012-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-04-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2012-04-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2012-02-10 Price Changed $22,500 NTREIS
• 2011-12-07 Price Changed $24,500 NTREIS
• 2011-11-18 Price Changed $25,500 NTREIS
• 2011-08-22 Price Changed $28,500 NTREIS
• 2011-07-21 Price Changed $31,000 NTREIS
• 2011-07-08 Price Changed $32,500 NTREIS
• 2011-07-01 Listed $34,900 NTREIS
• 1998-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,236 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.