303 E South Mountain Ave #170 · Phoenix, AZ 85042

$55,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 842 sqft · Manufactured · 40 Days on market

Built 1974 Average condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +1.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 2- Bedroom, 2 Full- Bath Home with a flexible living space! The home features a large, open layout with hardwood floors installed in 2018, replacing the original carpet. Plus, 3 mini split units were added in 2025, offering efficient and cost- effective Heating and cooling to each space . A versatile bonus space offers endless possibilities- convert it into a 3rd bedroom, a Large walk-in closet, or extra storage. outside you'll find a convenient storage shed. Plus enjoy access to a community pool and Rec center, adding even to this home in a peaceful setting.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Mini split units
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• MINI SPLIT UNITS
• BONUS SPACE
• STORAGE SHED
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported by owner
• Financial info: Tax information available (not included per instructions)
• HOA & community: Land lease community with monthly land lease fee; Land lease: $840 per month; Association maintains grounds; Community pool; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 2 covered parking spaces (carport)
• Security: Owned security system; Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Metal siding; Steel frame; Painted exterior; Foam and metal roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Gravel/stone front and back; Asphalt road access; Mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Mini split heating; Central air; Mini split cooling
• Interior features: Full bathroom in the primary bedroom; Laminate counters; Refrigerator included
• Laundry & utility: See remarks for cooling (mini split listed under heating & cooling)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $819 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Roosevelt Elementary District (4279) (urban): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #234 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maxine O Bush Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,076 of 1,109 statewide, top 97%, 262 students, 81% FRL); South Mountain High School (math 7% / reading 15%, grade F, #292 of 381 statewide, top 77%, 2,146 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 36% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.0%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.85%
• DSCR: 3.84
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,498
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8221 S 9th St	0.53mi	2/1.0	781 (-7%)	8mo	$210,000	$269	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $38,850
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $83,929
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85042

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Rents YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,518 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $819

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $857	-5% $838	+0% $819	+5% $800	+10% $781
Rent	-10% $699	-5% $759	+0% $819	+5% $879	+10% $939
Rate	-1.0pp $847	-0.5pp $833	base $819	+0.5pp $805	+1.0pp $791

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8350 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.5–2.5	1167	$1,795	$1.54	0d	8	0.15mi
8028 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	461	$1,099	$2.38	0d	1	0.29mi
11 E Dobbins Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.5–2.5	1167	$1,795	$1.54	0d	4	0.47mi
720 E Siesta Dr Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	633	$899	$1.42	0d	1	0.49mi
120 W Dobbins Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	938	$1,345	$1.43	0d	3	0.49mi
300 E Jessie Owens Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,445	$1.58	0d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,458
• − Management: −$1,458
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $9,524
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,286
• After-tax cash flow: $7,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 23 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with good flooring and a flexible layout. Upgrades to the HVAC system and interior paint would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — existing cabinets
• Minor bathroom fixtures — existing fixtures
• Minor HVAC system — 3 mini split units
• Minor exterior paint — painted siding

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal
• Rental replace mini split units — improves energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · existing cabinets	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · existing fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC system · 3 mini split units	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior paint · painted siding	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$2,000–12,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental replace mini split units — improves energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roosevelt Elementary District (4279)
• NCES district ID: 0407080
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $42,813
• Composite: 9.74/100
• National rank: #9829
• State rank: #234 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 45,903
• Household income: $88,717
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1624.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% Two or more races 29% White 25% Black 14% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.03%
• Current HPI: 318.0601
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.00%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $55,000 ARMLS