303 E South Mountain Ave #170 · Phoenix, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (shaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 111°F)
- 6 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Condition / age +2.8/5.0
- Appreciation +2.5/10.0
- Rent growth +1.5/5.0
- Schools +0.9/10.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -6.1
$55,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Welcome to this 2- Bedroom, 2 Full- Bath Home with a flexible living space! The home features a large, open layout with hardwood floors installed in 2018, replacing the original carpet. Plus, 3 mini split units were added in 2025, offering efficient and cost- effective Heating and cooling to each space . A versatile bonus space offers endless possibilities- convert it into a 3rd bedroom, a Large walk-in closet, or extra storage. outside you'll find a convenient storage shed. Plus enjoy access to a community pool and Rec center, adding even to this home in a peaceful setting.
Key facts
- Community pool
- Mini split units
- Open layout
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated average.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
- Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
- Roosevelt Elementary District (4279) (urban): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #234 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Zoned schools: Maxine O Bush Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,076 of 1,109 statewide, top 97%, 262 students, 81% FRL); South Mountain High School (math 7% / reading 15%, grade F, #292 of 381 statewide, top 77%, 2,146 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 36% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.0%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.02% ✓
- Cap rate
- 17.16%
- Cash-on-cash
- 38.82%
- DSCR
- 2.73
- GRM
- 4.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $90,000
- List price
- $55,000
- Delta
- -38.89%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 5 within 2.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 303 E South Mountain Ave #90 | 0.09mi | 2/1.0 | 750 (-11%) | 0mo | $39,999 | $53 | 74 |
| 821 W Buist Ave | 1.19mi | 2/2.0 | 840 (-0%) | 4mo | $90,000 | $107 | 61 |
| 8218 S 7th St #168 | 0.23mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 960 (+14%) | 1mo | $78,000 | $81 | 60 |
| 128 W Winston Dr | 0.31mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 936 (+11%) | 9mo | $325,000 | $347 | 50 |
| 123 W South Mountain Ave | 0.30mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,036 (+23%) | 6mo | $338,000 | $326 | 49 |
| 221 W Winston Dr | 0.45mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 936 (+11%) | 5mo | $297,000 | $317 | 48 |
| 18 E Valencia Dr | 0.49mi | 2/1.0 | 1,027 (+22%) | 7mo | $212,000 | $206 | 42 |
| 1123 W Summerside Rd | 1.44mi | 2/2.0 | 960 (+14%) | 9mo | $90,000 | $94 | 34 |
| 803 W Lydia Ln | 1.38mi | 2/1.0 | 964 (+14%) | 4mo | $210,500 | $218 | 34 |
| 812 W Saint Charles Ave | 1.34mi | 2/1.0 | 964 (+14%) | 6mo | $310,000 | $322 | 31 |
| 6401 S 4th Ave | 1.35mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 947 (+12%) | 8mo | $285,000 | $301 | 28 |
| 9436 S 12 th Ave | 1.35mi | 3/3.0 (+1) | 1,000 (+19%) | 6mo | $250,000 | $250 | 26 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 31.6%
- Equity multiple
- 2.27×
- Total profit
- $19,573
- Equity at exit
- $8,201
- IRR
- 37.0%
- Equity multiple
- 3.95×
- Total profit
- $45,375
- Equity at exit
- $4,755
Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 3 active · 2 under contract
- Months of supply
- 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $49,900 ($56/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 33 d
- This list price
- 100% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +91.9% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 85042
- Home prices YoY
- -27.7%
- Rents YoY
- -4.0%
- Active inventory
- 393
- Price-to-rent
- 4.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,112 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$288
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$69 /mo · $825/yr
- Insurance
- −$23
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$233
- Net cashflow
- $498
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $536 | -5% $517 | +0% $498 | +5% $479 | +10% $460 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $410 | -5% $454 | +0% $498 | +5% $542 | +10% $586 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $526 | -0.5pp $512 | base $498 | +0.5pp $484 | +1.0pp $469 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $13,750
- Closing costs
- $1,650
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 22 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8350 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ | 2.0–4.0 | 1.5–2.5 | 1167 | $1,895 | $1.62 | 0d | 3 | 0.15mi |
| 8028 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 602 | $1,300 | $2.16 | 0d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 8818 S Central Ave Apt 333 Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $1,159 | $1.45 | 0d | 1 | 0.36mi |
| 8818 S Central Ave Apt 325 Phoenix, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 600 | $1,015 | $1.69 | 0d | 1 | 0.36mi |
| 11 E Dobbins Rd Phoenix, AZ | 2.0–4.0 | 1.5–2.5 | 1167 | $1,895 | $1.62 | 0d | 3 | 0.47mi |
| 8849 S 7th St Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 892 | $1,499 | $1.68 | 0d | 5 | 0.48mi |
| 8849 S 7th St Phoenix, AZ | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 738 | $1,800 | $2.44 | 1d | 8 | 0.48mi |
| 8849 S 7th St Phoenix, AZ | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 738 | $1,699 | $2.30 | 51d | 4 | 0.48mi |
| 8849 S 7th St Unit 213 Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 895 | $1,699 | $1.90 | 45d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 720 E Siesta Dr Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 633 | $899 | $1.42 | 138d | 1 | 0.49mi |
| 120 W Dobbins Rd Phoenix, AZ | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 938 | $1,199 | $1.28 | 0d | 6 | 0.49mi |
| 730 E Siesta Dr Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 633 | $950 | $1.50 | 3d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 730 E Siesta Dr Phoenix, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 633 | $950 | $1.50 | 0d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 811 E Siesta Dr Phoenix, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 633 | $899 | $1.42 | 63d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 814 E Siesta Dr Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 650 | $1,195 | $1.84 | 0d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 813 E Siesta Dr Apt D Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 717 | $1,395 | $1.95 | 48d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 827 E Hazel Dr Apt 3 Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 675 | $1,045 | $1.55 | 74d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 300 E Jessie Owens Pkwy Phoenix, AZ | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 916 | $1,445 | $1.58 | 0d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 908 E Piedmont Rd Phoenix, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $1,425 | $2.04 | 74d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 501 W Fremont Rd Phoenix, AZ | 3.0 | 1.0 | 990 | $1,648 | $1.66 | 31d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 916 W Piedmont Rd Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 810 | $1,445 | $1.78 | 48d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 7500 S 16th St Phoenix, AZ | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.5 | 1009 | $1,864 | $1.85 | 0d | 2 | 1.38mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Building area reported by owner
- Financial info
- Tax information available (not included per instructions)
- HOA & community
- Land lease community with monthly land lease feeLand lease: $840 per monthAssociation maintains groundsCommunity poolGated community
Exterior
- Parking
- Detached carport2 covered parking spaces (carport)
- Security
- Owned security systemGated community
- Utilities
- City waterPublic sewer
- Home design
- Manufactured/mobile homeLeasehold ownership
- Construction
- Metal sidingSteel framePainted exteriorFoam and metal roof
- Exterior features
- Shed(s)Gravel/stone front and backAsphalt road accessMountain views
Interior
- Kitchen
- Laminate countertopsRefrigerator
- Bedrooms
- 2 possible bedrooms
- Flooring
- Wood flooring
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Mini split heatingCentral airMini split cooling
- Interior features
- Full bathroom in the primary bedroomLaminate countersRefrigerator included
- Laundry & utility
- See remarks for cooling (mini split listed under heating & cooling)
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-10-22days on market $55,000 Active 163 DOM
-
2026-10-21days on market $55,000 Active 162 DOM
-
2026-10-20days on market $55,000 Active 161 DOM
-
2026-10-19days on market $55,000 Active 160 DOM
-
2026-10-18days on market $55,000 Active 159 DOM
-
2026-10-17days on market $55,000 Active 158 DOM
-
2026-10-16days on market $55,000 Active 157 DOM
-
2026-10-15days on market $55,000 Active 156 DOM
-
2026-10-14days on market $55,000 Active 155 DOM
-
2026-10-13days on market $55,000 Active 154 DOM
-
2026-10-12days on market $55,000 Active 153 DOM
-
2026-10-11days on market $55,000 Active 152 DOM
-
2026-10-10days on market $55,000 Active 151 DOM
-
2026-10-09days on market $55,000 Active 150 DOM
-
2026-10-08days on market $55,000 Active 149 DOM
-
2026-10-07days on market $55,000 Active 148 DOM
-
2026-10-06days on market $55,000 Active 147 DOM
-
2026-10-05days on market $55,000 Active 146 DOM
-
2026-10-04days on market $55,000 Active 145 DOM
-
2026-10-03days on market $55,000 Active 144 DOM
-
2026-10-02days on market $55,000 Active 143 DOM
-
2026-10-01days on market $55,000 Active 142 DOM
-
2026-09-30days on market $55,000 Active 141 DOM
-
2026-09-29days on market $55,000 Active 140 DOM
-
2026-09-28days on market $55,000 Active 139 DOM
-
2026-09-27days on market $55,000 Active 138 DOM
-
2026-09-26days on market $55,000 Active 137 DOM
-
2026-09-25days on market $55,000 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-09-24days on market $55,000 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-09-23days on market $55,000 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $55,000 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $55,000 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $55,000 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $55,000 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $55,000 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $55,000 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $55,000 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $55,000 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $55,000 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $55,000 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $55,000 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $55,000 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $55,000 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $55,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $55,000 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $55,000 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $55,000 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $55,000 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $55,000 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $55,000 Active 107 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $13,340
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,081
- − Property taxes
- −$825
- − Insurance
- −$275
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,067
- − Management
- −$1,067
- − Depreciation
- −$1,600
- Taxable income
- $5,425
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,302
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,676/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 23 photos
This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with good flooring and a flexible layout. Upgrades to the HVAC system and interior paint would significantly increase its value.
Repairs flagged
- Minor kitchen cabinets — existing cabinets
- Minor bathroom fixtures — existing fixtures
- Minor HVAC system — 3 mini split units
- Minor exterior paint — painted siding
Value-add opportunities
- Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal ↑
- Rental replace mini split units — improves energy efficiency ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Roosevelt Elementary District (4279)
- NCES district ID
- 0407080
- Math proficiency
- 8% ▼ -13.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 14% ▼ -8.00%
- Median HH income
- $42,813
- Composite
- 9.74/100
- National rank
- #9829
- State rank
- #234 of 249 in AZ
Livability — Phoenix
- Score
- 75/100
- State rank
- #16
- US rank
- #3924
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Phoenix, AZ
- County
- Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
- City population
- 1,500,198
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 45,903
- Household income
- $88,717
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 9% of renters
Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 4,979,203 people
- By 2030
- 5,378,229 · +8.0%
- By 2040
- 6,156,598 · +23.6%
- By 2050
- 6,872,376 · +38.0%
- By 2075
- 8,401,270 · +68.7%
- By 2100
- 9,247,439 · +85.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 50% Two or more races 29% White 25% Black 14% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 45%
- Languages at home
- 65% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -122.03%
- Current HPI
- 318.0601
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -4.00%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-04-22 Listed $55,000 ARMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…