303 E South Mountain Ave #170 · Phoenix, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (shaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 111°F)
- 6 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Condition / age +2.8/5.0
- Appreciation +2.5/10.0
- Rent growth +1.5/5.0
- Schools +0.9/10.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -6.1
$55,000
303 E South Mountain Ave #170 · Phoenix, AZ 85042
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 842 sqft · Manufactured
· 134 Days on market
Manufactured home
Built 1974
$65/sqft
· 39% below area
Est $90k · 39% under
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Welcome to this 2- Bedroom, 2 Full- Bath Home with a flexible living space! The home features a large, open layout with hardwood floors installed in 2018, replacing the original carpet. Plus, 3 mini split units were added in 2025, offering efficient and cost- effective Heating and cooling to each space . A versatile bonus space offers endless possibilities- convert it into a 3rd bedroom, a Large walk-in closet, or extra storage. outside you'll find a convenient storage shed. Plus enjoy access to a community pool and Rec center, adding even to this home in a peaceful setting.
Key facts
- Community pool
- Mini split units
- Open layout
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated average.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
- Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 3.2% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
- Roosevelt Elementary District (4279) (urban): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #234 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Zoned schools: Maxine O Bush Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,076 of 1,109 statewide, top 97%, 262 students, 81% FRL); South Mountain High School (math 7% / reading 15%, grade F, #292 of 381 statewide, top 77%, 2,146 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 36% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.0%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$48,400
(12.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.06% ✓
- Cap rate
- 17.54%
- Cash-on-cash
- 40.18%
- DSCR
- 2.79
- GRM
- 4.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $90,000
- List price
- $55,000
- Delta
- -38.89%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 6 within 2.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 821 W Buist Ave | 1.19mi | 2/2.0 | 840 (-0%) | 3mo | $90,000 | $107 | 62 |
| 128 W Winston Dr | 0.31mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 936 (+11%) | 8mo | $325,000 | $347 | 51 |
| 123 W South Mountain Ave | 0.30mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,036 (+23%) | 5mo | $338,000 | $326 | 50 |
| 8221 S 9th St | 0.53mi | 2/1.0 | 781 (-7%) | 11mo | $210,000 | $269 | 50 |
| 221 W Winston Dr | 0.45mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 936 (+11%) | 3mo | $297,000 | $317 | 49 |
| 18 E Valencia Dr | 0.49mi | 2/1.0 | 1,027 (+22%) | 5mo | $212,000 | $206 | 44 |
| 1050 W Buist Ave | 1.33mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 760 (-10%) | 8mo | $90,000 | $118 | 37 |
| 1123 W Summerside Rd | 1.44mi | 2/2.0 | 960 (+14%) | 8mo | $90,000 | $94 | 35 |
| 803 W Lydia Ln | 1.38mi | 2/1.0 | 964 (+14%) | 2mo | $210,500 | $218 | 35 |
| 812 W Saint Charles Ave | 1.34mi | 2/1.0 | 964 (+14%) | 5mo | $310,000 | $322 | 33 |
| 6401 S 4th Ave | 1.35mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 947 (+12%) | 7mo | $285,000 | $301 | 30 |
| 9436 S 12 th Ave | 1.35mi | 3/3.0 (+1) | 1,000 (+19%) | 4mo | $250,000 | $250 | 28 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- 33.1%
- Equity multiple
- 2.34×
- Total profit
- $20,621
- Equity at exit
- $8,201
10-year hold
- IRR
- 38.5%
- Equity multiple
- 4.08×
- Total profit
- $47,470
- Equity at exit
- $4,755
Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 4 active · 1 under contract
- Median asking
- $49,950 ($58/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 21 d
- This list price
- 75% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +84.8% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 85042
- Home prices YoY
- -27.7%
- Rents YoY
- -4.0%
- Active inventory
- 356
- Price-to-rent
- 4.0×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $1,134 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$288
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$69 /mo · $825/yr
- Insurance
- −$23
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$238
- Net cashflow
- $516
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$481
Max offer price
$55,000
Occupancy floor
50%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $554 | -5% $535 | +0% $516 | +5% $497 | +10% $478 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $426 | -5% $471 | +0% $516 | +5% $560 | +10% $605 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $543 | -0.5pp $530 | base $516 | +0.5pp $501 | +1.0pp $487 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $13,750
- Closing costs
- $1,650
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 17 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8350 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ | 2.0–4.0 | 1.5–2.5 | 1167 | $1,845 | $1.58 | 0d | 4 | 0.15mi |
| 8028 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 602 | $1,300 | $2.16 | 0d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 8849 S 7th St Phoenix, AZ | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 738 | $1,699 | $2.30 | 6d | 4 | 0.48mi |
| 8849 S 7th St Phoenix, AZ | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 738 | $1,699 | $2.30 | 0d | 7 | 0.48mi |
| 8849 S 7th St Unit 213 Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 895 | $1,699 | $1.90 | 0d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 720 E Siesta Dr Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 633 | $899 | $1.42 | 93d | 1 | 0.49mi |
| 120 W Dobbins Rd Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 876 | $1,187 | $1.36 | 0d | 5 | 0.49mi |
| 730 E Siesta Dr Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 633 | $950 | $1.50 | 0d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 811 E Siesta Dr Phoenix, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 633 | $899 | $1.42 | 17d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 813 E Siesta Dr Apt D Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 717 | $1,395 | $1.95 | 3d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 827 E Hazel Dr Apt 3 Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 675 | $1,045 | $1.55 | 28d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 300 E Jessie Owens Pkwy Phoenix, AZ | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 916 | $1,445 | $1.58 | 0d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 908 E Piedmont Rd Phoenix, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $1,425 | $2.04 | 28d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 501 W Fremont Rd Phoenix, AZ | 3.0 | 1.0 | 990 | $1,648 | $1.66 | 0d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 7007 S 8th St Phoenix, AZ | 3.0 | 1.0 | 975 | $1,395 | $1.43 | 0d | 1 | 1.00mi |
| 916 W Piedmont Rd Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 810 | $1,445 | $1.78 | 3d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 7500 S 16th St Phoenix, AZ | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.5 | 1009 | $1,864 | $1.85 | 0d | 6 | 1.38mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Building area reported by owner
- Financial info
- Tax information available (not included per instructions)
- HOA & community
- Land lease community with monthly land lease feeLand lease: $840 per monthAssociation maintains groundsCommunity poolGated community
Exterior
- Parking
- Detached carport2 covered parking spaces (carport)
- Security
- Owned security systemGated community
- Utilities
- City waterPublic sewer
- Home design
- Manufactured/mobile homeLeasehold ownership
- Construction
- Metal sidingSteel framePainted exteriorFoam and metal roof
- Exterior features
- Shed(s)Gravel/stone front and backAsphalt road accessMountain views
Interior
- Kitchen
- Laminate countertopsRefrigerator
- Bedrooms
- 2 possible bedrooms
- Flooring
- Wood flooring
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Mini split heatingCentral airMini split cooling
- Interior features
- Full bathroom in the primary bedroomLaminate countersRefrigerator included
- Laundry & utility
- See remarks for cooling (mini split listed under heating & cooling)
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-23days on market $55,000 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $55,000 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $55,000 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $55,000 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $55,000 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $55,000 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $55,000 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $55,000 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $55,000 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $55,000 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $55,000 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $55,000 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $55,000 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $55,000 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $55,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $55,000 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $55,000 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $55,000 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $55,000 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $55,000 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $55,000 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $55,000 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $55,000 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $55,000 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $55,000 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $55,000 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $55,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $55,000 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $55,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $55,000 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $55,000 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $55,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $55,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $55,000 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $55,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $55,000 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $55,000 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $55,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $55,000 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $55,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $55,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $55,000 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $55,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $55,000 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $55,000 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $55,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $55,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $55,000 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $55,000 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $55,000 Active 72 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $13,605
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,081
- − Property taxes
- −$825
- − Insurance
- −$275
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,088
- − Management
- −$1,088
- − Depreciation
- −$1,600
- Taxable income
- $5,648
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,355
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,832/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 23 photos
55/100
Moderate rehab
Est. rehab $21,050–$37,890 screening
This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with good flooring and a flexible layout. Upgrades to the HVAC system and interior paint would significantly increase its value.
Repairs flagged
- Minor kitchen cabinets — existing cabinets
- Minor bathroom fixtures — existing fixtures
- Minor HVAC system — 3 mini split units
- Minor exterior paint — painted siding
Value-add opportunities
- Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal ↑
- Rental replace mini split units — improves energy efficiency ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 9/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Maxine O Bush Elementary School
F
AZ #1,076/1,109
Nat'l #40,398/41,679
High
South Mountain High School
F
AZ #292/381
Nat'l #15,923/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Roosevelt Elementary District (4279)
- NCES district ID
- 0407080
- Math proficiency
- 8% ▼ -13.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 14% ▼ -8.00%
- Median HH income
- $42,813
- Composite
- 9.74/100
- National rank
- #9829
- State rank
- #234 of 249 in AZ
B
Composite livability gradescore 75/100
Livability — Phoenix
- Score
- 75/100
- State rank
- #16
- US rank
- #3924
Category grades
Amenities A+
Commute A+
Cost of living B-
Crime F
Employment B-
Housing A+
Health & safety C-
User ratings F
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Phoenix, AZ
- County
- Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
- City population
- 1,500,198
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 45,903
- Household income
- $88,717
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 9% of renters
Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 4,979,203 people
- By 2030
- 5,378,229 · +8.0%
- By 2040
- 6,156,598 · +23.6%
- By 2050
- 6,872,376 · +38.0%
- By 2075
- 8,401,270 · +68.7%
- By 2100
- 9,247,439 · +85.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 50% Two or more races 29% White 25% Black 14% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 45%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 65% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -122.03%
- Current HPI
- 318.0601
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -4.00%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-04-22 Listed $55,000 ARMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…