75230 Red Twig Way · Yulee, FL 32097

$464,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,811 sqft · SingleFamily · 128 Days on market

Built 2022 8,825 sqft lot Est $388k · 20% over $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Tributary living! 3 BR plus an office that can be converted into 4th BR. Property offers an array of upgraded features and amenities. Enjoy your backyard oasis with a large lanai, birdcage, retractable awning, & paver patio, nestled against the preserve. Thoughtfully crafted closet systems in the master, pantry, & one guest BR. In the living room, you'll enjoy a remote-controlled shade, effortlessly customizing the sunlight streaming into the space. 3-car garage provides ample room for your vehicles, as well as workbench, shelving, and cabinets. The garage screen with a door allows you to enjoy the breeze while keeping insects at bay. Kitchen features quartz countertops, NEW SS appliances, spacious island, backsplash, reverse osmosis, & walk in pantry. Additional upgrades include plantation shutters, dual vanities in bathrooms, doors & hardware throughout, water softener, & gutters! Tributary offers a dog park, community pool, fitness center, pickle ball, & more.

Key facts

• Retractable awning
• Large lanai
• Paver patio

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• LARGE LANAI
• SCREENED ENCLOSURE
• RETRACTABLE AWNING
• PAVER PATIO
• CUSTOM CLOSET SYSTEMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $150 annual fee; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Three-car garage with garage door opener; Driveway parking; Three or more parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; PUD zoning; Resale property; Shingle roof
• Construction: Built with fiber cement and frame construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Screened patio; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Paved road access; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove; Some gas appliances; Water softener (owned)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Cable TV ready; Window treatments and plantation shutters; Vinyl windows with screens and blinds; Shutters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $464k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (44.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (44.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (44.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$80k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,687 (44.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.80%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $387,554
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
75315 Plumbago	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,811 (0%)	1mo	$387,500	$214	75
75190 Red Twig Way	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,011 (+11%)	4mo	$410,000	$204	71
75309 White Rabbit Ave	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,075 (+15%)	4mo	$431,000	$208	66
75449 Banyan Way	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,707 (-6%)	11mo	$390,000	$228	63
75719 Bayley Pl	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (-6%)	3mo	$398,000	$232	61
75767 Spoonbill Ln	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,006 (+11%)	2mo	$412,500	$206	61
75847 Walking Path Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,707 (-6%)	3mo	$413,240	$242	61
75537 Banyan Way	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (+9%)	7mo	$482,639	$245	58
75743 Bayley Pl	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (+9%)	3mo	$406,138	$206	57
75078 Glenspring Way	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (-3%)	6mo	$350,000	$198	52
75737 Walking Path Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,961 (+8%)	3mo	$487,730	$249	52
75043 Glenspring Way	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,051 (+13%)	10mo	$375,000	$183	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $178,149
• Equity at exit: $418,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.48×
• Total profit: $582,716
• Equity at exit: $902,421

Cash invested: $130,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,597 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,436
• Tax from tax record: −$580 /mo · $6,960/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-1,171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,079

Max offer price $257,687

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,125
• Closing costs: $13,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
75094 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2193	$2,495	$1.14	2d	1	0.57mi
75094 Glenspring Way Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	2055	$2,500	$1.22	23d	1	0.67mi
65013 Lagoon Forest Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,800	$1.25	10d	1	0.69mi
75008 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	23d	1	0.81mi
75045 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$2,310	$1.37	20d	1	0.84mi
75075 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,399	$1.29	4d	1	0.91mi
75346 Bridgewater Dr Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,300	$1.34	23d	1	0.99mi
70305 Winding River Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	3.0	2042	$2,500	$1.22	23d	1	1.10mi
65303 River Glen Pkwy Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2160	$2,400	$1.11	23d	1	1.18mi
65343 River Glen Pkwy Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$2,195	$1.28	23d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $464,500 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $464,500 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $464,500 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $464,500 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $464,500 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $464,500 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $464,500 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $464,500 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $464,500 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $464,500 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $464,500 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $464,500 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $464,500 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $464,500 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-03-28
    price $464,500
16. 2026-02-10
    listed $465,000 Active
17. 2023-10-24
    soldstatus $419,000
18. 2023-10-20
    soldstatus $419,000 Closed 1019-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1019 chars)

    Welcome to Tributary living! 3 BR plus an office that can be converted into 4th BR. Property offers an array of upgraded features and amenities. Enjoy your backyard oasis with a large lanai, birdcage, retractable awning, & paver patio, nestled against the preserve. Thoughtfully crafted closet systems in the master, pantry, & one guest BR. In the living room, you'll enjoy a remote-controlled shade, effortlessly customizing the sunlight streaming into the space. 3-car garage provides ample room for your vehicles, as well as workbench, shelving, and cabinets. The garage screen with a door allows you to enjoy the breeze while keeping insects at bay. Kitchen features quartz countertops, NEW SS appliances, spacious island, backsplash, reverse osmosis, & walk in pantry. Additional upgrades include plantation shutters, dual vanities in bathrooms, doors & hardware throughout, water softener, & gutters! Tributary offers a dog park, community pool, fitness center, pickle ball, & more.

19. 2023-10-20
    soldstatus $419,000

    Show marketing remark (1019 chars)

    Welcome to Tributary living! 3 BR plus an office that can be converted into 4th BR. Property offers an array of upgraded features and amenities. Enjoy your backyard oasis with a large lanai, birdcage, retractable awning, & paver patio, nestled against the preserve. Thoughtfully crafted closet systems in the master, pantry, & one guest BR. In the living room, you'll enjoy a remote-controlled shade, effortlessly customizing the sunlight streaming into the space. 3-car garage provides ample room for your vehicles, as well as workbench, shelving, and cabinets. The garage screen with a door allows you to enjoy the breeze while keeping insects at bay. Kitchen features quartz countertops, NEW SS appliances, spacious island, backsplash, reverse osmosis, & walk in pantry. Additional upgrades include plantation shutters, dual vanities in bathrooms, doors & hardware throughout, water softener, & gutters! Tributary offers a dog park, community pool, fitness center, pickle ball, & more.

20. 2023-09-23
    status Pending 1019-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1019 chars)

    Welcome to Tributary living! 3 BR plus an office that can be converted into 4th BR. Property offers an array of upgraded features and amenities. Enjoy your backyard oasis with a large lanai, birdcage, retractable awning, & paver patio, nestled against the preserve. Thoughtfully crafted closet systems in the master, pantry, & one guest BR. In the living room, you'll enjoy a remote-controlled shade, effortlessly customizing the sunlight streaming into the space. 3-car garage provides ample room for your vehicles, as well as workbench, shelving, and cabinets. The garage screen with a door allows you to enjoy the breeze while keeping insects at bay. Kitchen features quartz countertops, NEW SS appliances, spacious island, backsplash, reverse osmosis, & walk in pantry. Additional upgrades include plantation shutters, dual vanities in bathrooms, doors & hardware throughout, water softener, & gutters! Tributary offers a dog park, community pool, fitness center, pickle ball, & more.

21. 2023-07-24
    listed $420,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1019 chars)

    Welcome to Tributary living! 3 BR plus an office that can be converted into 4th BR. Property offers an array of upgraded features and amenities. Enjoy your backyard oasis with a large lanai, birdcage, retractable awning, & paver patio, nestled against the preserve. Thoughtfully crafted closet systems in the master, pantry, & one guest BR. In the living room, you'll enjoy a remote-controlled shade, effortlessly customizing the sunlight streaming into the space. 3-car garage provides ample room for your vehicles, as well as workbench, shelving, and cabinets. The garage screen with a door allows you to enjoy the breeze while keeping insects at bay. Kitchen features quartz countertops, NEW SS appliances, spacious island, backsplash, reverse osmosis, & walk in pantry. Additional upgrades include plantation shutters, dual vanities in bathrooms, doors & hardware throughout, water softener, & gutters! Tributary offers a dog park, community pool, fitness center, pickle ball, & more.

22. 2023-07-24
    listed $420,000 Active 1019-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1019 chars)

    Welcome to Tributary living! 3 BR plus an office that can be converted into 4th BR. Property offers an array of upgraded features and amenities. Enjoy your backyard oasis with a large lanai, birdcage, retractable awning, & paver patio, nestled against the preserve. Thoughtfully crafted closet systems in the master, pantry, & one guest BR. In the living room, you'll enjoy a remote-controlled shade, effortlessly customizing the sunlight streaming into the space. 3-car garage provides ample room for your vehicles, as well as workbench, shelving, and cabinets. The garage screen with a door allows you to enjoy the breeze while keeping insects at bay. Kitchen features quartz countertops, NEW SS appliances, spacious island, backsplash, reverse osmosis, & walk in pantry. Additional upgrades include plantation shutters, dual vanities in bathrooms, doors & hardware throughout, water softener, & gutters! Tributary offers a dog park, community pool, fitness center, pickle ball, & more.

23. 2023-07-24
    listed $420,000

    Show marketing remark (1019 chars)

    Welcome to Tributary living! 3 BR plus an office that can be converted into 4th BR. Property offers an array of upgraded features and amenities. Enjoy your backyard oasis with a large lanai, birdcage, retractable awning, & paver patio, nestled against the preserve. Thoughtfully crafted closet systems in the master, pantry, & one guest BR. In the living room, you'll enjoy a remote-controlled shade, effortlessly customizing the sunlight streaming into the space. 3-car garage provides ample room for your vehicles, as well as workbench, shelving, and cabinets. The garage screen with a door allows you to enjoy the breeze while keeping insects at bay. Kitchen features quartz countertops, NEW SS appliances, spacious island, backsplash, reverse osmosis, & walk in pantry. Additional upgrades include plantation shutters, dual vanities in bathrooms, doors & hardware throughout, water softener, & gutters! Tributary offers a dog park, community pool, fitness center, pickle ball, & more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,960 · $580/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,960 · $580/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,019
• − Property taxes: −$6,960
• − Insurance: −$2,322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,493
• − Management: −$2,493
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$13,513
• Taxable loss: −$22,792
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,470
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Yulee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 26,700
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+10.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $464,500 AINCAR
• 2026-02-10 Listed $465,000 AINCAR
• 2023-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $419,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-20 Sold (MLS) $419,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2023-10-20 Sold (MLS) $419,000 AINCAR
• 2023-09-23 Pending — AINCAR
• 2023-07-24 Listed $420,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2023-07-24 Listed $420,000 AINCAR
• 2023-07-24 Listed $420,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+20.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,960 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.