1543 Black Birch Way · Pocono Springs, PA 18466

$199,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1990 0.46 ac lot $87/sqft · 30% below area Est $285k · 30% under $149/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRING YOUR IMAGINATION AND TOOLS. Large home on double lot with detached 2 car garage. Plenty of room for your family plus separate entrance and living space for extended family. Unfinished Basement. House needs clean out and work, but it has good bones. Power is off. Bring a flashlight.

Key facts

• Separate living area
• Double lot
• 0.46 acre lot

Tags

• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACE
• SEPARATE LIVING AREA
• DOUBLE LOT
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.46 acres; Road surface: paved/asphalt
• Financial info: Property currently used as an investment
• HOA & community: Has homeowners association; Annual association fee collected (trash included); Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, playground, dog park, picnic area, basketball court

Exterior

• Parking: 10 total parking spaces (includes 2-car garage and 8 open spaces); Asphalt/paved on-site parking; Garage faces front; Off-street parking
• Security: Community has gated entry and security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; Used as an investment property; Located in A Pocono Country Place subdivision
• Construction: Structure: House; Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Covered deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Flooring not specified
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Wall-unit cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Soaking tub; Cathedral ceilings; High ceilings; Walk-in closets; In-law floorplan; Open floorplan; Unfurnished; Wood-burning fireplace in living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.0% in Pocono Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#560 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 355 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.81%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,162
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -29.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1533 Black Birch Way	0.08mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,117 (-8%)	4mo	$298,000	$141	73
1584 Black Birch Way	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,352 (+2%)	9mo	$222,000	$94	68
1650 Sunny Side Dr	0.20mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,132 (-8%)	14mo	$260,000	$122	60
1254 Winding Way	0.70mi	3/3.0	2,360 (+2%)	5mo	$310,000	$131	59
2515 Waterfront Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,370 (+3%)	2mo	$634,000	$268	58
1673 Marina Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	2,053 (-11%)	6mo	$395,918	$193	57
1403 Waterfront Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,981 (-14%)	13mo	$280,000	$141	52
1135 Glendale Ter	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,018 (-12%)	23mo	$300,000	$149	48
9010 Idlewild Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,000 (-13%)	13mo	$300,000	$150	33
9217 Westwood Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,080 (-10%)	21mo	$325,000	$156	31
2551 Waterfront Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,604 (+13%)	17mo	$525,000	$202	31
2043 Skyview Ter	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,080 (-10%)	24mo	$292,500	$141	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $28,815
• Equity at exit: $82,732

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $95,545
• Equity at exit: $122,197

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18466

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,207 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,422/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$149
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,982

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1002 Knollwood Dr Tobyhanna, PA	4.0	1.5	2088	$2,300	$1.10	13d	1	0.43mi
9149 Brandywine Dr Tobyhanna, PA	4.0	3.0	1870	$2,100	$1.12	20d	1	0.68mi
9294 Bluebird Ct Tobyhanna, PA	3.0	2.5	2107	$2,150	$1.02	13d	1	0.88mi
9593 Dawn Ln Tobyhanna, PA	4.0	2.5	1888	$2,300	$1.22	43d	1	0.93mi
1354 Winding Way Coolbaugh Township, PA	4.0	3.0	1870	$2,100	$1.12	20d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $149 · $1,788/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-20
   listed $199,900 Active 962-char remark
2. 2023-09-06
   soldstatus $165,000
3. 2023-08-31
   soldstatus $165,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (288 chars)

   BRING YOUR IMAGINATION AND TOOLS. Large home on double lot with detached 2 car garage. Plenty of room for your family plus separate entrance and living space for extended family. Unfinished Basement. House needs clean out and work, but it has good bones. Power is off. Bring a flashlight.

4. 2023-07-26
   listed $174,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (288 chars)

   BRING YOUR IMAGINATION AND TOOLS. Large home on double lot with detached 2 car garage. Plenty of room for your family plus separate entrance and living space for extended family. Unfinished Basement. House needs clean out and work, but it has good bones. Power is off. Bring a flashlight.

5. 2020-07-17
   soldstatus $70,100
6. 2020-06-01
   listed $69,000
7. 2017-05-30
   listed $94,900
8. 2017-03-07
   listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,422 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,422 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,422
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,119
• − Management: −$2,119
• − HOA: −$1,788
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$978
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$235
• After-tax cash flow: $2,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pocono Springs

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #560
• US rank: #5263

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,997

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 24% Two or more races 17% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.36%
• Current HPI: 202.4134
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+100.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-20 Listed $199,900 PMAR
• 2023-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-31 Sold (MLS) $165,000 PMAR
• 2023-07-26 Listed $174,900 PMAR
• 2020-07-17 Sold (MLS) $70,100 PMAR
• 2020-06-01 Listed $69,000 PMAR
• 2017-05-30 Listed $94,900 PMAR
• 2017-03-07 Listed $99,900 PMAR

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,422 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.