47 Sutley Ct · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$229,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1957 0.32 ac lot Est $215k · 7% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold before print.

Key facts

• New front window
• New doors
• Quiet cul-de-sac

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• REDESIGNED KITCHEN
• NEW ROOF
• NEW A/C
• NEW FRONT WINDOW
• NEW DOORS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Deck; Concrete driveway; Fully fenced yard; Located on a cul-de-sac; Rectangular lot (58 x 240)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (in basement); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-125/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mullen Elementary School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 303 students, 54% FRL); Fletcher Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%); Tonawanda Middle/High School (math 49% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,023 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 1,011 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 34% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $230k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $189,810 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $214,704
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
53 Winkler Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,060 (+5%)	2mo	$210,000	$198	79
30 Bannard Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (+2%)	2mo	$220,000	$213	74
20 Nicholas Dr N	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,108 (+10%)	5mo	$160,000	$144	67
23 Winkler Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,060 (+5%)	17mo	$215,000	$203	64
205 Bannard Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	999 (-1%)	8mo	$186,500	$187	63
18 Joseph Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,096 (+9%)	3mo	$295,000	$269	62
128 Bannard Ave	0.46mi	2/1.5 (-1)	972 (-4%)	6mo	$168,500	$173	60
346 Maldiner Ave	0.69mi	3/1.5	999 (-1%)	9mo	$280,000	$280	56
236 Newell Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	999 (-1%)	16mo	$237,000	$237	55
29 Bonnett Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+6%)	13mo	$262,000	$246	50
157 Newell Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,131 (+12%)	8mo	$269,900	$239	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-30,504
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $5,450
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,898 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,502/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,911

Max offer price $228,064

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $120	-5% $55	+0% $-10	+5% $-75	+10% $-141
Rent	-10% $-160	-5% $-85	+0% $-10	+5% $65	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $48	base $-10	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	13d	1	0.24mi
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	5d	1	0.65mi
285 Crestmount Ave Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,905	$2.63	3d	9	0.86mi
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	19d	1	1.12mi
148 Colonial Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,900	$2.34	25d	1	1.40mi
184 Sweeney St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	3d	1	1.41mi
36-46 Crowell Ct Unit 40 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $229,900 Active
3. 2011-03-23
   soldstatus $84,000
4. 2011-03-21
   soldstatus $84,000
5. 2010-10-28
   listed $82,500
6. 2010-07-02
   soldstatus $42,000
7. 2010-06-30
   soldstatus $42,000 18-char remark

   Show marketing remark (18 chars)

   Sold before print.

8. 2010-05-13
   listed $49,900 18-char remark

   Show marketing remark (18 chars)

   Sold before print.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,502 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,194 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: +$692/yr (+$58/mo · 27.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$2,502
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,822
• − Management: −$1,822
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$4,084
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$980
• After-tax cash flow: $856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+360.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $229,900 WNYREIS
• 2011-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-21 Sold (MLS) $84,000 WNYREIS
• 2010-10-28 Listed $82,500 WNYREIS
• 2010-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-30 Sold (MLS) $42,000 WNYREIS
• 2010-05-13 Listed $49,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,502 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.