202 S Ervin St · Pittsburg, IL 62974

$145,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 63 Days on market

Built 1940 0.86 ac lot $81/sqft · 38% below area Est $233k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bungalow-style home offering approximately 1,800 square feet of living space, located in town on an almost one-acre lot. Recent updates include a new roof on both the house and the detached two-car garage, fresh paint and newer carpet on the main level. The home features a roomy Eat-in Kitchen with ample cabinet space and separate Dining Room. The Laundry is conveniently located in the hallway near the full Bath. The Living Room, Primary Bedroom with 1/2 Bath and the Second Bedroom round out the main level. Upstairs includes two Bedrooms, a Common area suitable for a home office or additional living space, and a half bath. Furnace and H2O 2024

Key facts

• Separate dining room
• Eat-in kitchen
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• LAUNDRY CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,047 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Marion CUSD 2 (urban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #317 of 620 in IL (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,434 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.81%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,849
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -37.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11683 Macie Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,940 (+8%)	11mo	$350,000	$180	67
400 E Perry St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (-12%)	22mo	$160,000	$101	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $20,424
• Equity at exit: $59,653

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $67,820
• Equity at exit: $87,834

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62974

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $873/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,131

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $170	+0% $129	+5% $88	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $78	+0% $129	+5% $180	+10% $231
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $166	base $129	+0.5pp $91	+1.0pp $53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 687-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $145,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $145,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 43 DOM
19. 2026-04-17
    listed $145,000 Active 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Bungalow-style home offering approximately 1,800 square feet of living space, located in town on an almost one-acre lot. Recent updates include a new roof on both the house and the detached two-car garage, fresh paint and newer carpet on the main level. The home features a roomy Eat-in Kitchen with ample cabinet space and separate Dining Room. The Laundry is conveniently located in the hallway near the full Bath. The Living Room, Primary Bedroom with 1/2 Bath and the Second Bedroom round out the main level. Upstairs includes two Bedrooms, a Common area suitable for a home office or additional living space, and a half bath. Furnace and H2O 2024

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,082 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,209/yr (+$101/mo · 138.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$873
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,243
• − Management: −$1,243
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$891
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$214
• After-tax cash flow: $1,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion CUSD 2
• NCES district ID: 1724600
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,221
• Composite: 22.07/100
• National rank: #8189
• State rank: #317 of 620 in IL

Livability — Pittsburg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1047
• US rank: #20047

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pittsburg, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,648

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Current HPI: 147.1708
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $145,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $873 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.