10021 Adams Ln · Providence Village, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 110°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 22 days/yr
Wind risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 26.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 5 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +14.6/15.0
- Cash flow +7.2/30.0
- Schools +4.6/10.0
- Livability +3.4/5.0
- 1% rule +2.9/10.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Rent growth +2.0/5.0
- DSCR +1.4/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$350,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Beautiful open-concept home in the desirable Liberty at Providence community featuring 9-foot ceilings on the first level and a functional layout designed for modern living. The spacious kitchen showcases granite countertops, abundant cabinetry, a large center island with breakfast bar, and butler's pantry making it the perfect space for entertaining and everyday gatherings. A private home office with French doors provides the ideal work-from-home setup. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with dual sinks, soaking tub, and separate shower, creating a comfortable space to unwind. Enjoy outdoor living with two covered patios—one on each level—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying peaceful Texas evenings. The fenced backyard provides additional space for outdoor activities, while the rear-entry garage with alley access enhances curb appeal and convenience. Residents of Liberty at Providence enjoy fantastic amenities including a splash pad pavilion, playgrounds, scenic trails, and nearby Providence Lake for fishing and outdoor recreation. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this home offers the perfect balance of lifestyle and location. *PREFERRED LENDER OFFERING UP TO $6,000 IN CLOSING COSTS OR RATE BUY DOWN!* and no lender fee future refinancing may be available for qualified buyers of this home.
Key facts
- Open-concept home
- Two covered patios
- Butler's pantry
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-483 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (24.4% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (21.0% below list).
- Recommended offer: $265k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.8% in Providence Village — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 67/100 on livability (#567 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1885 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 51% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.79% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.64%
- Cash-on-cash
- -5.92%
- DSCR
- 0.74
- GRM
- 10.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $415,556
- List price
- $350,000
- Delta
- -15.78%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6028 Bowie Ct | 0.07mi | 4/3.5 | 3,120 (+0%) | 11mo | $413,000 | $132 | 83 |
| 5932 Hopkins Dr | 0.12mi | 4/3.5 | 2,902 (-7%) | 1mo | $389,900 | $134 | 78 |
| 6020 Hailey Ct | 0.13mi | 5/3.5 (+1) | 3,206 (+3%) | 10mo | $399,900 | $125 | 71 |
| 9104 Cape Cod Blvd | 0.39mi | 4/2.5 | 3,023 (-3%) | 10mo | $349,900 | $116 | 69 |
| 2132 Dewitt Ln | 0.11mi | 4/2.5 | 2,728 (-12%) | 9mo | $399,000 | $146 | 67 |
| 9321 Waterman Dr | 0.29mi | 5/3.5 (+1) | 2,908 (-6%) | 6mo | $410,000 | $141 | 62 |
| 9156 Benevolent Ct | 0.18mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 2,723 (-12%) | 10mo | $350,000 | $129 | 58 |
| 9233 Benevolent Ct | 0.24mi | 5/3.5 (+1) | 3,429 (+10%) | 10mo | $387,000 | $113 | 54 |
| 9009 Huxley Dr | 0.59mi | 5/2.5 (+1) | 2,933 (-6%) | 7mo | $369,900 | $126 | 52 |
| 1644 Hinckley Ave | 0.70mi | 5/2.5 (+1) | 2,977 (-4%) | 8mo | $368,000 | $124 | 48 |
| 1213 Angel Ln | 0.74mi | 4/3.5 | 2,980 (-4%) | 10mo | $539,990 | $181 | 46 |
| 9012 Nathaniel Dr | 0.51mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 2,728 (-12%) | 10mo | $365,000 | $134 | 43 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -30.2%
- Equity multiple
- 0.03×
- Total profit
- $-95,398
- Equity at exit
- $52,186
- IRR
- -54.5%
- Equity multiple
- -0.56×
- Total profit
- $-153,230
- Equity at exit
- $30,262
Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 76227
- Home prices YoY
- -19.0%
- Rents YoY
- -1.9%
- Active inventory
- 1885
- Price-to-rent
- 10.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,766 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,835
- Tax from tax record
- −$642 /mo · $7,705/yr
- Insurance
- −$146
- HOA
- −$45
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$581
- Net cashflow
- $-483
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $87,500
- Closing costs
- $10,500
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 39 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10013 Adams Ln Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2543 | $2,600 | $1.02 | 44d | 1 | 0.01mi |
| 10032 Adams Ln Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3010 | $2,900 | $0.96 | 5d | 1 | 0.05mi |
| 6009 Myers Ct Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2538 | $3,400 | $1.34 | 44d | 1 | 0.08mi |
| 5925 Hopkins Dr Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2983 | $3,000 | $1.01 | 44d | 1 | 0.12mi |
| 5913 Hopkins Dr Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3058 | $3,199 | $1.05 | 44d | 1 | 0.15mi |
| 8982 Stallings Dr Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2534 | $2,611 | $1.03 | 15d | 1 | 0.17mi |
| 6024 Pitcher Way Aubrey, TX | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3006 | $2,750 | $0.91 | 19d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 9401 Waterman Dr Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2256 | $2,410 | $1.07 | 44d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 10422 Thunderwood Dr Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2200 | $2,400 | $1.09 | 25d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 10422 Thunderwood Dr Unit Na Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2200 | $2,400 | $1.09 | 2d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 2916 Brady Starr Dr Aubrey, TX | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2940 | $2,700 | $0.92 | 21d | 1 | 0.49mi |
| 9308 Masse Ct Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2635 | $2,200 | $0.83 | 44d | 1 | 0.54mi |
| 9728 Gooseneck Trl Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2349 | $2,900 | $1.23 | 44d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 9916 Boston Harbor Dr Providence Village, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2678 | $2,575 | $0.96 | 44d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 9113 Hope Dr Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2805 | $2,450 | $0.87 | 25d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 9113 Hope Dr Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2805 | $2,495 | $0.89 | 7d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 9712 Quail Pointe Rd Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2349 | $2,800 | $1.19 | 44d | 1 | 0.66mi |
| 2901 Bald Eagle Blvd Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2622 | $2,599 | $0.99 | 13d | 1 | 0.71mi |
| 9820 Elk Falls Ln Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2966 | $2,700 | $0.91 | 44d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 1820 Plymouth Dr Providence Village, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2218 | $2,475 | $1.12 | 3d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 9817 Cherrywood Way Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2965 | $3,000 | $1.01 | 19d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 8982 Delway Dr Aubrey, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2551 | $2,800 | $1.10 | 44d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 10517 Breezeway Dr Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2433 | $2,490 | $1.02 | 25d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 10113 Hanover Dr Providence Village, TX | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2100 | $1,995 | $0.95 | 19d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 10409 Deposit Dr , TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2133 | $3,800 | $1.78 | 44d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 7380 FM 424 Cross Roads, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2650 | $3,500 | $1.32 | 44d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 10101 Sunnyview Ln Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2545 | $2,500 | $0.98 | 44d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 10201 Sunnyview Ln Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2520 | $2,500 | $0.99 | 25d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 3009 Dutch Rd Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2210 | $2,495 | $1.13 | 44d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 10917 Blaze St Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2509 | $2,900 | $1.16 | 7d | 1 | 1.17mi |
| 11001 Blaze St Aubrey, TX | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2150 | $2,350 | $1.09 | 44d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 1026 Elm Dr Providence Village, TX | 5.0 | 3.5 | 2100 | $2,650 | $1.26 | 44d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 2440 Opaline Dr Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2410 | $2,400 | $1.00 | 44d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 2917 Grizzly Rd Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2449 | $2,600 | $1.06 | 44d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 2340 Evening Stone Dr Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2184 | $2,800 | $1.28 | 4d | 1 | 1.28mi |
| 11205 Blaze St Aubrey, TX | 5.0 | 3.5 | 3378 | $4,100 | $1.21 | 12d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 2328 Brightstone Dr Aubrey, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2216 | $3,800 | $1.71 | 1d | 1 | 1.44mi |
| 1425 Oakcrest Dr Providence Village, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2694 | $2,200 | $0.82 | 44d | 1 | 1.49mi |
| 10332 Fall Brook Dr Aubrey, TX | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3160 | $3,200 | $1.01 | 19d | 1 | 1.50mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $45 · $540/yr
- Likely covers
- landscaping
Listing history 20 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $350,000 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $350,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $350,000 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $350,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $350,000 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $350,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $350,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $350,000 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $350,000 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $350,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $350,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $350,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $350,000 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $350,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-05-05price $375,000 1376-char remark
Show marketing remark (1376 chars)
Beautiful open-concept home in the desirable Liberty at Providence community featuring 9-foot ceilings on the first level and a functional layout designed for modern living. The spacious kitchen showcases granite countertops, abundant cabinetry, a large center island with breakfast bar, and butler's pantry making it the perfect space for entertaining and everyday gatherings. A private home office with French doors provides the ideal work-from-home setup. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with dual sinks, soaking tub, and separate shower, creating a comfortable space to unwind. Enjoy outdoor living with two covered patios—one on each level—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying peaceful Texas evenings. The fenced backyard provides additional space for outdoor activities, while the rear-entry garage with alley access enhances curb appeal and convenience. Residents of Liberty at Providence enjoy fantastic amenities including a splash pad pavilion, playgrounds, scenic trails, and nearby Providence Lake for fishing and outdoor recreation. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this home offers the perfect balance of lifestyle and location. *PREFERRED LENDER OFFERING UP TO $6,000 IN CLOSING COSTS OR RATE BUY DOWN!* and no lender fee future refinancing may be available for qualified buyers of this home.
-
2026-04-21price $385,000 1376-char remark
Show marketing remark (1376 chars)
Beautiful open-concept home in the desirable Liberty at Providence community featuring 9-foot ceilings on the first level and a functional layout designed for modern living. The spacious kitchen showcases granite countertops, abundant cabinetry, a large center island with breakfast bar, and butler's pantry making it the perfect space for entertaining and everyday gatherings. A private home office with French doors provides the ideal work-from-home setup. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with dual sinks, soaking tub, and separate shower, creating a comfortable space to unwind. Enjoy outdoor living with two covered patios—one on each level—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying peaceful Texas evenings. The fenced backyard provides additional space for outdoor activities, while the rear-entry garage with alley access enhances curb appeal and convenience. Residents of Liberty at Providence enjoy fantastic amenities including a splash pad pavilion, playgrounds, scenic trails, and nearby Providence Lake for fishing and outdoor recreation. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this home offers the perfect balance of lifestyle and location. *PREFERRED LENDER OFFERING UP TO $6,000 IN CLOSING COSTS OR RATE BUY DOWN!* and no lender fee future refinancing may be available for qualified buyers of this home.
-
2026-03-09$400,000 Active 1376-char remark
Show marketing remark (1376 chars)
Beautiful open-concept home in the desirable Liberty at Providence community featuring 9-foot ceilings on the first level and a functional layout designed for modern living. The spacious kitchen showcases granite countertops, abundant cabinetry, a large center island with breakfast bar, and butler's pantry making it the perfect space for entertaining and everyday gatherings. A private home office with French doors provides the ideal work-from-home setup. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with dual sinks, soaking tub, and separate shower, creating a comfortable space to unwind. Enjoy outdoor living with two covered patios—one on each level—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying peaceful Texas evenings. The fenced backyard provides additional space for outdoor activities, while the rear-entry garage with alley access enhances curb appeal and convenience. Residents of Liberty at Providence enjoy fantastic amenities including a splash pad pavilion, playgrounds, scenic trails, and nearby Providence Lake for fishing and outdoor recreation. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this home offers the perfect balance of lifestyle and location. *PREFERRED LENDER OFFERING UP TO $6,000 IN CLOSING COSTS OR RATE BUY DOWN!* and no lender fee future refinancing may be available for qualified buyers of this home.
-
2021-02-19soldstatus Sold 519-char remark
Show marketing remark (519 chars)
MLS# 14413957 - Built by History Maker Homes - Ready Now! ~ 9 foot ceilings throughout first floor. Luxury vinyl tile flooring in entry, family room, kitchen, and nook. 42 inch white kitchen cabinets with crown molding. Granite counter tops with ceramic tile backsplash and large kitchen island. Stainless Steel whirlpool appliances including microwave. Study with french doors. Master suite includes dual vanities, separate ciramic tile shower and garden tub with a window. Covered patio, with full sod and irrigation,
-
2020-08-28status Pending 519-char remark
Show marketing remark (519 chars)
MLS# 14413957 - Built by History Maker Homes - Ready Now! ~ 9 foot ceilings throughout first floor. Luxury vinyl tile flooring in entry, family room, kitchen, and nook. 42 inch white kitchen cabinets with crown molding. Granite counter tops with ceramic tile backsplash and large kitchen island. Stainless Steel whirlpool appliances including microwave. Study with french doors. Master suite includes dual vanities, separate ciramic tile shower and garden tub with a window. Covered patio, with full sod and irrigation,
-
2020-08-14$307,106 Active 519-char remark
Show marketing remark (519 chars)
MLS# 14413957 - Built by History Maker Homes - Ready Now! ~ 9 foot ceilings throughout first floor. Luxury vinyl tile flooring in entry, family room, kitchen, and nook. 42 inch white kitchen cabinets with crown molding. Granite counter tops with ceramic tile backsplash and large kitchen island. Stainless Steel whirlpool appliances including microwave. Study with french doors. Master suite includes dual vanities, separate ciramic tile shower and garden tub with a window. Covered patio, with full sod and irrigation,
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $7,705 · $642/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $7,705 · $642/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $33,193
- − Mortgage interest
- −$19,605
- − Property taxes
- −$7,705
- − Insurance
- −$1,750
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,655
- − Management
- −$2,655
- − HOA
- −$540
- − Depreciation
- −$10,182
- Taxable loss
- −$11,900
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,856
- After-tax cash flow
- $-2,942/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Aubrey ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4808910
- Math proficiency
- 50% ▼ -9.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 52% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $77,154
- Composite
- 46.21/100
- National rank
- #2492
- State rank
- #119 of 826 in TX
Livability — Providence Village
- Score
- 67/100
- State rank
- #567
- US rank
- #10856
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Providence Village, TX
- County
- Denton County · 901,654 people
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 62,127
- Household income
- $111,402
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 959.0
Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,053,010 people
- By 2030
- 1,192,269 · +13.2%
- By 2040
- 1,472,920 · +39.9%
- By 2050
- 1,746,506 · +65.9%
- By 2075
- 2,358,497 · +124.0%
- By 2100
- 2,779,183 · +163.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 11% · Canada, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Denton
- 2024 margin
- R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -59.76%
- Current HPI
- 254.2895
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -1.88%
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
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| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
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| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
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| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
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| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
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Price history
+22.1% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-05 Price Changed $375,000 NTREIS
- 2026-04-21 Price Changed $385,000 NTREIS
- 2026-03-09 Listed $400,000 NTREIS
- 2021-02-19 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
- 2020-08-28 Pending — NTREIS
- 2020-08-14 Listed $307,106 NTREIS
Property tax history
+51.8%/yrLatest (2025): $7,705 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…