3827 P Dr · Meridian, MS 39305

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,517 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1960 Est $83k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

228-627-0249 painted house white interior 03-1-26 Contact me for more details

Key facts

• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#141 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Meridian Public Schools (town): math 13% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #109 of 130 in MS (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 18 units permitted in Lauderdale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lauderdale County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.48%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,435
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3623 24th Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,456 (-4%)	11mo	$79,900	$55	68
3221 46th St	0.61mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,477 (-3%)	3mo	$99,900	$68	57
3809 35th St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,384 (-9%)	21mo	$39,500	$29	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $14,958
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $49,001
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39305

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $990/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $678

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $484	-5% $461	+0% $438	+5% $416	+10% $393
Rent	-10% $341	-5% $390	+0% $438	+5% $487	+10% $536
Rate	-1.0pp $479	-0.5pp $459	base $438	+0.5pp $418	+1.0pp $396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3315 N Hills St Meridian, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	45d	8	0.66mi
4609 Broadmoor Dr Meridian, MS	2.0	1.0	1050	$995	$0.95	45d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $80,000 Active
17. 2026-02-11
    historical
18. 2026-01-17
    price $105,000
19. 2025-11-30
    price $110,000
20. 2025-11-23
    price $119,000
21. 2025-11-16
    price $135,000
22. 2025-10-20
    price $138,000
23. 2025-08-16
    listed $140,000 Active
24. 2025-01-14
    price $98,000
25. 2024-12-03
    price $107,900
26. 2024-10-24
    listed $127,900 Active
27. 2023-06-16
    historical
28. 2020-04-30
    listed $30,000
29. 2008-04-11
    soldstatus
30. 2004-10-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $990 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $990 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$990
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,183
• − Management: −$1,183
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $4,225
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,014
• After-tax cash flow: $4,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meridian Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2802910
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,236
• Composite: 11.87/100
• National rank: #9673
• State rank: #109 of 130 in MS

Livability — Meridian

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #14839

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meridian, MS
• County: Lauderdale County · 42,445 people
• City population: 42,445
• Metro: Meridian, MS
• Population (ZIP): 21,638
• Household income: $67,712
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 791.0

Population outlook (Lauderdale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,158 people
• By 2030: 72,770 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 67,309 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 61,797 · -17.8%
• By 2075: 49,790 · -33.8%
• By 2100: 39,797 · -47.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 36% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lauderdale

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.0% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.3pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+16.0 2016: R+23.0 2012: R+15.5 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.15%
• Current HPI: 123.1214
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Meridian, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+166.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $80,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-02-11 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $105,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-30 Price Changed $110,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-23 Price Changed $119,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $135,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $138,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-16 Listed $140,000 MLSU
• 2025-01-14 Price Changed $98,000 EMR
• 2024-12-03 Price Changed $107,900 EMR
• 2024-10-24 Listed $127,900 EMR
• 2023-06-16 Delisted — EMR
• 2020-04-30 Listed $30,000 EMR
• 2008-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $990 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.