103 Avenue I · El Campo, TX 77437

$63,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1940 $62/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 58% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This little cottage saw a lot of love back in it's day, but alas, time takes a toll on all of us. This home is being sold "as is." You could do a complete renovation or remove the house and build anew on this great approx 0.227 city lot. There is also a 0.4017 acre lot behind the house that is also available for sale. See HAR MLS #53641273 (CAD: R025302 & R025301) All measurements are approximate - buyer will need to verify.

Key facts

• Complete renovation
• Acre lot
• Built 1940

Tags

• COMPLETE RENOVATION
• ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $63k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $63k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.7% vs local median 3.2% in El Campo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#204 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime D-.
• El Campo ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #387 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Wharton County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $436 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.62%
• DSCR: 3.30
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,904
• List price: $63,000
• Delta: -56.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
808 Heights St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,148 (+12%)	1mo	$179,000	$156	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $11,265
• Equity at exit: $9,394

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $38,329
• Equity at exit: $5,447

Cash invested: $17,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77437

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,567 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,474/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,147

Max offer price $63,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $368	-5% $350	+0% $332	+5% $314	+10% $297
Rent	-10% $208	-5% $270	+0% $332	+5% $394	+10% $456
Rate	-1.0pp $364	-0.5pp $348	base $332	+0.5pp $316	+1.0pp $299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,750
• Closing costs: $1,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $63,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $63,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $63,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $63,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $63,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $63,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $63,000 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $63,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $63,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $63,000 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $63,000 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $63,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $63,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $63,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $63,000 Active 120 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $63,000 Active 119 DOM
17. 2026-01-31
    listed $63,000 Active 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    This little cottage saw a lot of love back in it's day, but alas, time takes a toll on all of us. This home is being sold "as is." You could do a complete renovation or remove the house and build anew on this great approx 0.227 city lot. There is also a 0.4017 acre lot behind the house that is also available for sale. See HAR MLS #53641273 (CAD: R025302 & R025301) All measurements are approximate - buyer will need to verify.

18. 2023-09-14
    historical
19. 2022-10-27
    price $99,500
20. 2022-06-01
    price $120,000
21. 2022-05-23
    price $135,000
22. 2022-04-08
    listed $150,000 Active
23. 2021-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,474 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,474 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,529
• − Property taxes: −$1,474
• − Insurance: −$5,434
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − Depreciation: −$1,833
• Taxable income: $3,530
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$847
• After-tax cash flow: $3,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Campo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818280
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,351
• Composite: 34.82/100
• National rank: #5102
• State rank: #387 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Campo

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #204
• US rank: #5196

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Campo, TX
• City population: 18,886
• Population (ZIP): 18,886

Population outlook (Wharton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,448 people
• By 2030: 42,726 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 43,042 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 43,368 · +2.2%
• By 2075: 44,962 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 44,510 · +4.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 44% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Wharton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.8% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.7pp toward R · 2008: -31.2pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+43.1 2016: R+40.2 2012: R+39.1 2008: R+31.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.78%
• Current HPI: 181.5905
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-58.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Listed $63,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-10-27 Price Changed $99,500 HARMLS
• 2022-06-01 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-23 Price Changed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-08 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,474 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.