17561 Zonobia Ave · Butterfield, TX 79938

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 32 Days on market

Built 2008 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.6/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on 5 beautiful acres at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this home offers peaceful country living just minutes from Hueco Tanks State Park. Beautiful mountain views and serenity are what you'll find here. This neighborhood has delivered water service (approx 2200 gallon tank included), an all-electric home setup, and a convenient tankless water heater. Horses are allowed. Financing is available with 5% down to qualified buyers.

Key facts

• Country living
• Water service
• 5 acres

Tags

• 5 ACRES
• QUIET DEAD-END ROAD
• COUNTRY LIVING
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• WATER SERVICE
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $577 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 32/100 on livability (#1,682 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Clint ISD (suburban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #792 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 1183 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.79%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $12,504
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $51,278
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79938

• Home prices YoY: -8.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 1183
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $482/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,047

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-21
   listed $140,000 Active 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Set on 5 beautiful acres at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this home offers peaceful country living just minutes from Hueco Tanks State Park. Beautiful mountain views and serenity are what you'll find here. This neighborhood has delivered water service (approx 2200 gallon tank included), an all-electric home setup, and a convenient tankless water heater. Horses are allowed. Financing is available with 5% down to qualified buyers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $482 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,062/yr (+$172/mo · 427.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$482
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $4,908
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,178
• After-tax cash flow: $5,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clint ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814430
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,490
• Composite: 15.03/100
• National rank: #9356
• State rank: #792 of 826 in TX

Livability — Butterfield

• Score: 32/100
• State rank: #1682
• US rank: #27819

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 99,621
• Household income: $77,272
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 900.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 83% Two or more races 42% White 10% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 76% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 62%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.39%
• Current HPI: 207.2031
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.06%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $140,000 GEPARMLS

Property tax history

+28.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $482 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.