1314 Gardien St · Gonzales, TX 78629

$97,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1960 9,378 sqft lot $94/sqft · 41% below area Est $164k · 41% under ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This corner lot property offers incredible potential in a neighborhood where updated homes are highly desirable. Featuring back alley access and additional parking possibilities, the lot provides functionality and future flexibility. The 2 bed/1 bath home is in need of significant repairs from top to bottom. For the right buyer, this is a chance to design and renovate according to your own style and needs. If you’re looking for your next project in a sought-after neighborhood, this is one worth exploring.

Key facts

• Back alley access
• Corner lot
• 9,378 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BACK ALLEY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.2% in Gonzales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#720 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Gonzales ISD (town): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #540 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11 units permitted in Gonzales County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gonzales County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,270 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.36%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,508
• List price: $97,000
• Delta: -40.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
319 Smith St	0.45mi	2/1.0	1,098 (+6%)	1mo	$150,000	$137	67
1226 Saint Matthew St	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,086 (+5%)	12mo	$134,000	$123	65
610 N Fair St	0.67mi	2/1.0	924 (-10%)	4mo	$215,000	$233	48
826 Mitchell St	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,140 (+10%)	23mo	$189,000	$166	45
623 Hopkins St	0.64mi	2/2.0	934 (-10%)	11mo	$113,000	$121	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $4,996
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $31,063
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78629

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,361/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $839

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $380	-5% $352	+0% $325	+5% $298	+10% $270
Rent	-10% $226	-5% $276	+0% $325	+5% $374	+10% $424
Rate	-1.0pp $374	-0.5pp $350	base $325	+0.5pp $300	+1.0pp $274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
708 Saint Matthew St Gonzales, TX	2.0	1.0	1055	$1,250	$1.18	45d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   price $97,000 516-char remark

   Show marketing remark (516 chars)

   This corner lot property offers incredible potential in a neighborhood where updated homes are highly desirable. Featuring back alley access and additional parking possibilities, the lot provides functionality and future flexibility. The 2 bed/1 bath home is in need of significant repairs from top to bottom. For the right buyer, this is a chance to design and renovate according to your own style and needs. If you’re looking for your next project in a sought-after neighborhood, this is one worth exploring.

2. 2026-02-16
   listed $107,000 Active 516-char remark

   Show marketing remark (516 chars)

   This corner lot property offers incredible potential in a neighborhood where updated homes are highly desirable. Featuring back alley access and additional parking possibilities, the lot provides functionality and future flexibility. The 2 bed/1 bath home is in need of significant repairs from top to bottom. For the right buyer, this is a chance to design and renovate according to your own style and needs. If you’re looking for your next project in a sought-after neighborhood, this is one worth exploring.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,361 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,775 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$414/yr (+$35/mo · 30.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$1,361
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $2,499
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$600
• After-tax cash flow: $3,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gonzales ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821060
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,230
• Composite: 28.97/100
• National rank: #6626
• State rank: #540 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gonzales

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #720
• US rank: #13452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gonzales, TX
• City population: 12,380
• Population (ZIP): 12,380

Population outlook (Gonzales County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,246 people
• By 2030: 23,060 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 24,661 · +10.9%
• By 2050: 26,046 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 29,289 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 30,112 · +35.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 20% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Gonzales

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.8) · D 22.3% · R 77.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.4pp · 2024: -54.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.8 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+30.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.37%
• Current HPI: 178.7752
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $97,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $107,000 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,361 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.