5 Arrowhead Dr · Waterloo, NY 13165

$86,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 21 Days on market

Built 1994 Average condition Est $90k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-loved by one owner, this spacious single-wide manufactured home is set in the beautiful and welcoming Indian Hills community, established in 1993. Enjoy a peaceful setting with a nicely manicured yard, mature trees and shrubbery, a newer shed, concrete walkways, a concrete picnic area, and a double-wide blacktop driveway leading right to the door. Inside, the large owner’s suite offers a generous closet, full bath with garden tub, separate shower, private toilet area, large vanity, and plenty of cabinet space. The additional bedroom is a comfortable size with closet space. You’ll love the bright living room with carpeting, ceiling fan, and fresh white paint, plus the eat-in

Key facts

• Newer shed
• Manicured yard
• Mature trees

Tags

• MANICURED YARD
• MATURE TREES
• NEWER SHED
• CONCRETE WALKWAYS
• CONCRETE PICNIC AREA
• DOUBLE-WIDE BLACKTOP DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease of $395

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Driveway; No garage
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: Single-story; Single wide mobile home; Existing/resale condition; Entry faces city street
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Pillar/post/pier and slab foundation; Built by Redman
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen with breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Den; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.8% in Waterloo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,240 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Waterloo Central School District (town): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #525 of 590 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Seneca County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $595 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Seneca County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $84,710 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.89%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,760
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Indian Hills Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,064 (+1%)	2mo	$90,000	$85	89

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $15,333
• Equity at exit: $12,823

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $51,096
• Equity at exit: $7,436

Cash invested: $24,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13165

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,334 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$108 /mo · $1,290/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $752

Max offer price $86,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,500
• Closing costs: $2,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $86,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $86,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $86,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $86,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $86,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $86,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $94,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-28
    listed $94,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,817
• − Property taxes: −$1,290
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,280
• − Management: −$1,280
• − Depreciation: −$2,502
• Taxable income: $4,404
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,057
• After-tax cash flow: $4,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

A well-maintained single-wide manufactured home with good exterior and landscaping, but some minor repairs and touch-ups are needed to maximize its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Some areas of the yard could benefit from trimming
• Minor Paint — Some areas of the siding and trim could benefit from touch-up

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping increases curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Some areas of the yard could benefit from trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint · Some areas of the siding and trim could benefit from touch-up	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping increases curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterloo Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600014
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,726
• Composite: 34.16/100
• National rank: #5278
• State rank: #525 of 590 in NY

Livability — Waterloo

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waterloo, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,429

Population outlook (Seneca County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,457 people
• By 2030: 32,540 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 30,680 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 28,875 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 24,757 · -26.0%
• By 2100: 19,591 · -41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Seneca

• 2024 margin: R (+11.8) · D 44.1% · R 55.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -11.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.8 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+12.1 2012: D+9.2 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.17%
• Current HPI: 257.272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $94,000 UNYREIS