143 Fossil Lake Ct · Braidwood, IL 60481

$120,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Other public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1998

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just in time for summer, this adorable home offers a spacious addition and double loft, perfect for extra sleeping and storage space. Nestled in the charming Shadow Lakes community and tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this property offers a peaceful and private setting with no homes behind it. The private backyard is perfect place to start your day with a peaceful morning coffee or relaxing nights around the campfire making s'mores with family & friends. Enjoy all the wonderful amenities the community has to offer while relaxing in your own little getaway. Updated include: 2025 Deck & Fridge, 2024 HVAC, 2024 Ductwork, 2022 Roof & 2021 Flooring. Enjoy incredible fishing (

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-280/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Braidwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#251 in IL, #4,654 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Reed Custer CUSD 255U (rural): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #203 of 620 in IL (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $120k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $103,301 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.83%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-20,911
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-20,036
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60481

• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,033 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,922/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,063

Max offer price $115,873

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $11	+0% $-23	+5% $-57	+10% $-91
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-64	+0% $-23	+5% $17	+10% $58
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $7	base $-23	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    historical
19. 2020-09-22
    soldstatus $57,000
20. 1998-05-01
    soldstatus $22,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,323 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$401/yr (+$33/mo · 20.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,922
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$992
• − Management: −$992
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$2,322
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$557
• After-tax cash flow: $277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reed Custer CUSD 255U
• NCES district ID: 1733380
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $60,500
• Composite: 29.67/100
• National rank: #6461
• State rank: #203 of 620 in IL

Livability — Braidwood

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #251
• US rank: #4654

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Braidwood, IL
• City population: 5,332
• Population (ZIP): 11,277

Population outlook (Will County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 705,368 people
• By 2030: 708,154 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 702,692 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 680,249 · -3.6%
• By 2075: 611,990 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 516,215 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Will

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.1% · R 48.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.3 2016: D+5.7 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.12%
• Current HPI: 230.6346
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+153.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Coming Soon — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 1998-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,922 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.