52 Hawkins St · Derby, CT 06418

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 739 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1900 2,962 sqft lot Est $175k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One Level Living In This Affordable 3 Bedroom Ranch-Currentlrented For $1000 Per Month. Nice Buy!

Key facts

• Private back yard
• 2,962 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• PRIVATE BACK YARD
• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty offered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway parking; Six total parking spaces; Two-car garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer (in street); Oil fuel tank located in basement
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved driveway

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating (oil-fired); Window unit cooling; 30-gallon hot water tank
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Full basement

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $140,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$175,143) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.0% in Derby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#64 in CT, #4,574 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools D.
• Derby School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #127 of 153 in CT (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.38%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,143
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 Oak St	0.12mi	2/1.0	843 (+14%)	8mo	$200,000	$237	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,040
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $27,112
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06418

• Home prices YoY: -19.5%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,708 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,613/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,279

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
180 Olivia St Unit 2B Derby, CT	1.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	2d	1	0.08mi
27 8th St Unit first floor Derby, CT	2.0	1.0	750	$2,150	$2.87	19d	1	0.16mi
58 Minerva St Derby, CT	1.0	1.0	579	$1,500	$2.59	21d	1	0.20mi
137 Minerva St Unit 135 Derby, CT	1.0	1.0	462	$1,400	$3.03	2d	1	0.23mi
74 4th St Unit 16 B Derby, CT	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	43d	1	0.25mi
59 Elizabeth St Unit 59A Derby, CT	1.0	1.0	579	$1,500	$2.59	23d	1	0.32mi
281 Canal St E Shelton, CT	2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$3,200	$3.42	2d	1	0.35mi
45 Minerva St Unit 45-104 Derby, CT	1.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	23d	1	0.36mi
45 Minerva St Derby, CT	1.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	21d	1	0.36mi
185 Canal St Shelton, CT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	987	$6,276	$6.36	10d	1	0.40mi
565 Howe Ave Unit 1 F Shelton, CT	1.0	1.0	700	$1,495	$2.14	2d	1	0.42mi
31 Atwater Ave Unit W Derby, CT	1.0	1.0	750	$1,750	$2.33	19d	1	0.44mi
502 Howe Ave Unit 113 Shelton, CT	1.0	1.0	670	$1,700	$2.54	3d	1	0.50mi
502 Howe Ave Unit 112 Shelton, CT	1.0	1.0	673	$1,775	$2.64	3d	1	0.50mi
500 Howe Ave Unit 301 Shelton, CT	1.0	1.0	590	$1,550	$2.63	23d	1	0.51mi
45 Derby Ave Derby, CT	2.0	1.0	700	$1,700	$2.43	43d	2	0.82mi
50 Derby Ave Derby, CT	2.0	1.0	700	$1,600	$2.29	23d	1	0.84mi
26 Cedric Ave Derby, CT	2.0	1.0	617	$1,300	$2.11	11d	1	0.92mi
219 Howe Ave Unit 3L Shelton, CT	2.0	1.0	700	$1,650	$2.36	43d	1	0.93mi
209 Howe Ave Shelton, CT	1.0	1.0	650	$1,500	$2.31	43d	1	0.94mi
199 Howe Ave Unit 203 Shelton, CT	2.0	1.0	725	$1,650	$2.28	14d	1	0.95mi
174 Coram Ave Unit 2B Shelton, CT	2.0	1.0	700	$1,950	$2.79	23d	1	0.98mi
87 Kneen St Unit 3rd floor Shelton, CT	2.0	1.0	725	$1,350	$1.86	11d	1	1.09mi
15 W Main St Ansonia, CT	1.0	1.0	550	$1,500	$2.73	11d	2	1.37mi
202 Main St Unit 206-6 Ansonia, CT	1.0	1.0	600	$1,500	$2.50	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   remarks 114-char remark
5. 2026-06-14
   listed $140,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,613 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,804 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$192/yr (+$16/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,613
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,640
• − Management: −$1,640
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,989
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$477
• After-tax cash flow: $3,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Derby School District
• NCES district ID: 0901110
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,988
• Composite: 25.61/100
• National rank: #7410
• State rank: #127 of 153 in CT

Livability — Derby

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #4574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Derby, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 12,205
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 12,205
• Household income: $78,542
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 711.0

Population outlook (Naugatuck Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 496,846

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Russian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Naugatuck Valley

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.4) · D 45.6% · R 53.0% · Other 1.4%
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.06%
• Current HPI: 202.3832
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+75.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $140,000 Smart MLS
• 2005-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-03 Sold (MLS) $80,000 Smart MLS
• 2003-10-02 Listed $89,000 Smart MLS
• 1994-03-22 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 1993-09-22 Listed $88,888 Smart MLS
• 1987-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,613 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.