7131 Durango Creek Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,327 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2010 5,501 sqft lot Est $230k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Durango Creek One Story! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths. Master with high ceiling, garden tub, tile shower, large walk-in closet & his and her sinks! Open kitchen with breakfast bar, gas stovetop and great counterspace. Living area with gas fireplace! Tile compliment the foyer, kitchen and bath areas. Covered back porch, gutters and fenced backyard. 2 car attached garage. Great location and schools!

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Open-concept layout
• Garden tub

Tags

• UPDATED ONE-STORY HOME
• BRAND NEW VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GAS FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• GARDEN TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with RealManage; Annual association fee of $498 (covers common areas)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage with automatic door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Built in 2010; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Porch; Fully fenced private yard; Back yard fencing; Subdivision location; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Disposal; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (12 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Double vanity; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Gas log and wood-burning fireplace (1 total)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $239k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bear Branch El (math 48% / reading 51%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 579 students, 28% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,415 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.31%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,571
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7222 Casita Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,374 (+4%)	11mo	$274,000	$199	80
7002 Durango Creek Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	5mo	$235,000	$188	78
7306 Winter Song Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,333 (+0%)	14mo	$209,900	$157	76
33515 Forest West St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+15%)	0mo	$235,000	$155	69
7023 Casita Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+12%)	8mo	$270,000	$182	67
7107 Cool Springs Ct	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,333 (+0%)	22mo	$225,000	$169	66
33156 Wedgewood Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+1%)	13mo	$199,900	$149	65
711 Hinsdale	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+7%)	15mo	$245,900	$173	64
6710 Durango Creek Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,268 (-4%)	7mo	$245,000	$193	63
7318 Casita Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,490 (+12%)	16mo	$265,000	$178	60
6835 Durango Creek Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,495 (+13%)	8mo	$254,900	$171	57
6626 Dillon Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+12%)	9mo	$255,000	$171	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $145,807
• Equity at exit: $215,310

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.97×
• Total profit: $399,496
• Equity at exit: $464,324

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,603 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$309 /mo · $3,711/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,157

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33200 Forest West St Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1307	$4,065	$3.11	1d	22	0.34mi
33124 Magnolia Cir Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,875	$1.67	44d	1	0.64mi
39300 Cimarron Way Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1172	$1,353	$1.15	11d	1	1.05mi
33154 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1812	$2,195	$1.21	5d	7	1.11mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,383	$1.73	11d	1	1.20mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,340	$1.70	3d	1	1.25mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 10366 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,372	$1.72	10d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $239,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,711 · $309/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,374 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$662/yr (+$55/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,711
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,498
• − Management: −$2,498
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable income: $483
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$116
• After-tax cash flow: $4,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+41.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2016-07-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-07-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-05-29 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2010-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,711 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.