16318 County Road 33 · St. Joseph, TN 35645

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1948 Good condition 0.79 ac lot $111/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home featuring a carport and a spacious great room that opens to the kitchen, creating a functional and inviting layout. Situated on a flat lot in the Killen area with pleasant surroundings. Exterior features include vinyl siding and updated windows, along with nice interior trim details. A great opportunity in a desirable location—schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Updated windows
• Flat lot
• Desirable location

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• FLAT LOT
• VINYL SIDING
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• INTERIOR TRIM DETAILS
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lauderdale County (rural): math 19% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #53 of 129 in AL (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Solid renter incomes; 164 units permitted in Lauderdale County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 12% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $83k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,500
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -53.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-8,046
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,335
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35645

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $902 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $226/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $740

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 134 DOM
18. 2026-04-10
    price $99,900 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home featuring a carport and a spacious great room that opens to the kitchen, creating a functional and inviting layout. Situated on a flat lot in the Killen area with pleasant surroundings. Exterior features include vinyl siding and updated windows, along with nice interior trim details. A great opportunity in a desirable location—schedule your showing today.

19. 2026-03-25
    price $112,500 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home featuring a carport and a spacious great room that opens to the kitchen, creating a functional and inviting layout. Situated on a flat lot in the Killen area with pleasant surroundings. Exterior features include vinyl siding and updated windows, along with nice interior trim details. A great opportunity in a desirable location—schedule your showing today.

20. 2026-02-26
    price $117,500 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home featuring a carport and a spacious great room that opens to the kitchen, creating a functional and inviting layout. Situated on a flat lot in the Killen area with pleasant surroundings. Exterior features include vinyl siding and updated windows, along with nice interior trim details. A great opportunity in a desirable location—schedule your showing today.

21. 2026-01-28
    price $123,500 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home featuring a carport and a spacious great room that opens to the kitchen, creating a functional and inviting layout. Situated on a flat lot in the Killen area with pleasant surroundings. Exterior features include vinyl siding and updated windows, along with nice interior trim details. A great opportunity in a desirable location—schedule your showing today.

22. 2026-01-15
    listed $129,900 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home featuring a carport and a spacious great room that opens to the kitchen, creating a functional and inviting layout. Situated on a flat lot in the Killen area with pleasant surroundings. Exterior features include vinyl siding and updated windows, along with nice interior trim details. A great opportunity in a desirable location—schedule your showing today.

23. 2025-11-18
    price $129,900
24. 2025-10-15
    listed $134,900 Active
25. 2020-09-23
    soldstatus $83,000
26. 2020-06-03
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $226 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $709 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$484/yr (+$40/mo · 214.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$226
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$866
• − Management: −$866
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$130
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$31
• After-tax cash flow: $1,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is in good condition with updated features and a functional layout. It offers a great opportunity in a desirable location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves property's visual appeal and marketability
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and adds value
• Resale Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathroom and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves property's visual appeal and marketability ↑
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Resale Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathroom and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lauderdale County
• NCES district ID: 0102010
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,501
• Composite: 27.93/100
• National rank: #6863
• State rank: #53 of 129 in AL

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Lauderdale County
• Metro: Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL
• Population (ZIP): 13,960
• Household income: $87,958
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 83.0

Population outlook (Lauderdale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,386 people
• By 2030: 93,634 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 93,114 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 91,586 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 88,667 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 81,098 · -13.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lauderdale

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.5) · D 23.8% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -51.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.5 2020: R+44.7 2016: R+46.0 2012: R+30.9 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.61%
• Current HPI: 193.3443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+11.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $99,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $112,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $117,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $123,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $129,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $129,900 SAARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $134,900 SAARMLS
• 2020-09-23 Sold (MLS) $83,000 SAARMLS
• 2020-06-03 Listed $89,900 SAARMLS

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $226 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.