11511 Corlyn Dr · Spanish Lake, MO 63138

$190,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,838 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1964 10,079 sqft lot $103/sqft · 18% above area Est $210k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 11511 Corlyn Drive, a spacious four-bedroom home tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac. The main level includes four bedrooms, highlighted by a primary suite with a private full bathroom. The lower level is partially finished with plenty of unfinished space remaining for storage or future expansion. An attached two-car garage, fenced backyard provides privacy and room for outdoor enjoyment. Situated just a stone's throw from Christian Hospital, Hazelwood East High School, this home combines space, location and potential. Property is being in sold as-is condition, making it an ideal option for investors or buyers ready to add value.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Unfinished space
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• PRIMARY SUITE
• FENCED BACKYARD
• ATTACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• UNFINISHED SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-52/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 8.1% in Spanish Lake — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $190k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,953 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,664
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -9.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2015 Claudine Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,695 (-8%)	7mo	$190,000	$112	68
11550 Rock Hampton Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,982 (+8%)	5mo	$224,999	$114	64
1912 Shardell Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (+7%)	5mo	$238,000	$121	62
2328 Outlook Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-4%)	8mo	$179,900	$102	57
11292 Jerries Ln	0.66mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,881 (+2%)	0mo	$274,900	$146	56
2291 Redman Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-9%)	5mo	$197,000	$118	51
2327 Fair Acres Rd	0.46mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,654 (-10%)	11mo	$190,000	$115	48
9 Vizcuya Ct	0.74mi	4/1.5	1,800 (-2%)	12mo	$219,999	$122	46
1732 Muriel Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,771 (-4%)	8mo	$194,900	$110	46
2417 Fair Acres Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (-13%)	2mo	$175,500	$109	42
11401 Northway Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,589 (-14%)	6mo	$165,900	$104	40
1730 Parktree Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (-14%)	2mo	$225,000	$142	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-35,927
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-50,422
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63138

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,973/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,675

Max offer price $189,231

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $103	-5% $49	+0% $-4	+5% $-58	+10% $-112
Rent	-10% $-136	-5% $-70	+0% $-4	+5% $62	+10% $128
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $44	base $-4	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1911 Redman Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,495	$1.03	3d	1	0.49mi
11185 Oak Parkway Ln St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1412	$1,075	$0.76	2d	1	1.01mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	2d	1	1.17mi
1708 San Remo Ct St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1053	$1,300	$1.23	2d	9	1.17mi
10441 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1380	$1,380	$1.00	44d	1	1.38mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	44d	1	1.42mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1561	$2,100	$1.35	2d	1	1.42mi
1510 Trampe Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1581	$1,600	$1.01	2d	1	1.42mi
5364 Trailview Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	3.0	1992	$2,330	$1.17	22d	1	1.43mi
1310 Petite Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1407	$1,495	$1.06	24d	1	1.48mi
10606 Kilbourn Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	2100	$1,395	$0.66	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $190,000 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-05-05
   price $200,000 646-char remark

   Show marketing remark (646 chars)

   Welcome to 11511 Corlyn Drive, a spacious four-bedroom home tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac. The main level includes four bedrooms, highlighted by a primary suite with a private full bathroom. The lower level is partially finished with plenty of unfinished space remaining for storage or future expansion. An attached two-car garage, fenced backyard provides privacy and room for outdoor enjoyment. Situated just a stone's throw from Christian Hospital, Hazelwood East High School, this home combines space, location and potential. Property is being in sold as-is condition, making it an ideal option for investors or buyers ready to add value.

3. 2026-04-20
   status Active 646-char remark

   Show marketing remark (646 chars)

   Welcome to 11511 Corlyn Drive, a spacious four-bedroom home tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac. The main level includes four bedrooms, highlighted by a primary suite with a private full bathroom. The lower level is partially finished with plenty of unfinished space remaining for storage or future expansion. An attached two-car garage, fenced backyard provides privacy and room for outdoor enjoyment. Situated just a stone's throw from Christian Hospital, Hazelwood East High School, this home combines space, location and potential. Property is being in sold as-is condition, making it an ideal option for investors or buyers ready to add value.

4. 2026-04-12
   status Pending 646-char remark

   Show marketing remark (646 chars)

   Welcome to 11511 Corlyn Drive, a spacious four-bedroom home tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac. The main level includes four bedrooms, highlighted by a primary suite with a private full bathroom. The lower level is partially finished with plenty of unfinished space remaining for storage or future expansion. An attached two-car garage, fenced backyard provides privacy and room for outdoor enjoyment. Situated just a stone's throw from Christian Hospital, Hazelwood East High School, this home combines space, location and potential. Property is being in sold as-is condition, making it an ideal option for investors or buyers ready to add value.

5. 2026-04-07
   listed $215,000 Active 646-char remark

   Show marketing remark (646 chars)

   Welcome to 11511 Corlyn Drive, a spacious four-bedroom home tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac. The main level includes four bedrooms, highlighted by a primary suite with a private full bathroom. The lower level is partially finished with plenty of unfinished space remaining for storage or future expansion. An attached two-car garage, fenced backyard provides privacy and room for outdoor enjoyment. Situated just a stone's throw from Christian Hospital, Hazelwood East High School, this home combines space, location and potential. Property is being in sold as-is condition, making it an ideal option for investors or buyers ready to add value.

6. 1994-01-25
   soldstatus $100,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,973 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,973 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,973
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,603
• − Management: −$1,603
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,264
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$783
• After-tax cash flow: $731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Spanish Lake

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #25189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spanish Lake, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,233
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,233
• Household income: $56,096
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 925.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.09%
• Current HPI: 165.2146
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+98.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Listed $215,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $100,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,973 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.