28 Linwood Ave · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$209,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1947 5,244 sqft lot Est $234k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained property in a highly desirable neighborhood! This charming home features 3 spacious bedrooms plus a versatile bonus room, offering flexible space for a home office, playroom, or guest area. Gleaming hardwood floors add warmth and character throughout much of the home. The spacious living room and eat-in kitchen provide plenty of room for everyday living and entertaining. Major updates have already been completed, including the furnace, central air conditioning, hot water tank, electrical system, and windows, giving you added peace of mind. Relax in the rear sunroom overlooking the large backyard, perfect for outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simpl

Key facts

• Rear sunroom
• Eat-in kitchen
• Major updates

Tags

• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• GLEAMING HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• MAJOR UPDATES
• REAR SUNROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; One garage space
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Poured foundation; Vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 40 x 131)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Oven
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Main-level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level; Convertible bedroom; Sunroom / Florida room; Bonus room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-609/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mullen Elementary School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 303 students, 54% FRL); Fletcher Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%); Tonawanda Middle/High School (math 49% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,023 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 1,011 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 34% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $169,478 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,874
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Joseph Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0	1,096 (-0%)	3mo	$295,000	$269	75
30 Bannard Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,032 (-6%)	2mo	$220,000	$213	68
53 Winkler Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,060 (-4%)	2mo	$210,000	$198	66
299 Newell Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,103 (+0%)	2mo	$255,299	$231	65
157 Newell Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,131 (+3%)	8mo	$269,900	$239	64
20 Nicholas Dr N	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,108 (+1%)	5mo	$160,000	$144	62
128 Bannard Ave	0.44mi	2/1.5	972 (-12%)	6mo	$168,500	$173	53
23 Winkler Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,060 (-4%)	17mo	$215,000	$203	52
81 Winkler Dr	0.41mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,212 (+10%)	6mo	$257,500	$212	51
205 Bannard Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	999 (-9%)	8mo	$186,500	$187	49
346 Maldiner Ave	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	999 (-9%)	9mo	$280,000	$280	44
236 Newell Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	999 (-9%)	16mo	$237,000	$237	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-30,623
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,461
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,695 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,417/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,759

Max offer price $200,932

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $68	-5% $9	+0% $-51	+5% $-110	+10% $-170
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-118	+0% $-51	+5% $16	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $3	base $-51	+0.5pp $-105	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	13d	1	0.44mi
4-18 Concord Ct Tonawanda, NY	1.0	1.0	730	$1,395	$1.91	5d	1	0.78mi
285 Crestmount Ave Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,905	$2.63	0d	9	0.78mi
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	5d	1	0.79mi
184 Sweeney St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	0d	1	1.19mi
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,775	$1.65	0d	1	1.23mi
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	19d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $209,900 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   remarks 696-char remark
8. 2026-06-05
   listed $209,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,417 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,982 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: +$565/yr (+$47/mo · 23.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$2,417
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$4,247
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,019
• After-tax cash flow: $410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $209,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,417 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.