17516 W Pershing St · Surprise, AZ 85388

$425,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 165 Days on market

Built 2011 8,283 sqft lot $202/sqft · 12% below area Est $482k · 12% under $93/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on a desirable corner lot with ideal North and South exposure, this thoughtfully designed 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with a den offers comfort and style throughout. Vaulted ceilings and a bright great room enhance the open floorplan, while luxury vinyl flooring adds a modern touch. The kitchen features a breakfast bar and island, perfect for gathering. Outside, enjoy the charm of a mature pomegranate tree, completing a home that blends functionality with everyday enjoyment.

Key facts

• Bright great room
• Vaulted ceilings
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NORTH AND SOUTH EXPOSURE
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• BRIGHT GREAT ROOM
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• BREAKFAST BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-664 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (41.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (41.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,135 (41.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.69%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $481,503
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -11.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13551 N 175th Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,155 (+2%)	1mo	$420,000	$195	79
17320 W Dahlia Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,138 (+2%)	3mo	$508,837	$238	69
17435 W Evans Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,103 (-0%)	2mo	$485,000	$231	63
17687 W Charter Oak Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	2,155 (+2%)	1mo	$436,000	$202	61
17774 W Dahlia Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5	2,338 (+11%)	0mo	$445,000	$190	61
17455 W Meadow Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,068 (-2%)	2mo	$475,042	$230	58
17443 W Georgia Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,385 (+13%)	0mo	$475,000	$199	58
17744 W Corrine Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	2,302 (+9%)	3mo	$745,000	$324	57
17627 W Evans Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,087 (-1%)	1mo	$425,000	$204	55
17845 W Hearn Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,215 (+5%)	2mo	$425,000	$192	54
17859 W Eugene Ter	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,892 (-10%)	2mo	$409,900	$217	52
17468 W Crocus Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,401 (+14%)	0mo	$425,000	$177	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-56,459
• Equity at exit: $129,483

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-70,215
• Equity at exit: $160,579

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,501 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,690/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$93
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-664

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,341

Max offer price $307,780

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-423	-5% $-543	+0% $-664	+5% $-784	+10% $-904
Rent	-10% $-861	-5% $-762	+0% $-664	+5% $-565	+10% $-466
Rate	-1.0pp $-450	-0.5pp $-555	base $-664	+0.5pp $-774	+1.0pp $-886

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13559 N 174th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2147	$2,200	$1.02	21d	1	0.24mi
17279 W Dahlia Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1972	$3,300	$1.67	13d	1	0.38mi
17775 W Eugene Ter Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2104	$2,279	$1.08	6d	1	0.38mi
17840 W Andora St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2261	$2,195	$0.97	6d	1	0.41mi
12480 N 174th Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2012	$2,600	$1.29	19d	1	0.50mi
17747 W Ventura St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1978	$1,845	$0.93	44d	1	0.55mi
17176 W Corrine Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1685	$2,000	$1.19	22d	1	0.57mi
17863 W Calavar Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,750	$1.08	44d	1	0.60mi
17475 W Spring Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1885	$3,288	$1.74	44d	1	0.80mi
17244 W Vacaville St Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1530	$2,995	$1.96	25d	1	0.84mi
17618 W Mandalay Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,795	$1.14	44d	1	0.87mi
17746 W Banff Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,785	$1.19	44d	1	0.97mi
17730 W Banff Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1839	$2,495	$1.36	25d	1	0.98mi
17395 W Langer Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1902	$1,995	$1.05	25d	1	1.07mi
14945 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1699	$2,099	$1.24	6d	1	1.10mi
15164 N 173rd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2048	$2,495	$1.22	24d	1	1.10mi
17236 W Country Gables Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2291	$2,795	$1.22	44d	1	1.19mi
17168 W Rocklin St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2004	$5,000	$2.50	25d	1	1.20mi
17218 W Country Gables Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,800	$1.20	12d	1	1.20mi
17938 W Port Royale Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1775	$2,149	$1.21	6d	1	1.24mi
11300 N Casa Dega Dr Unit 1033 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1500	$3,200	$2.13	44d	1	1.25mi
17818 W Acapulco Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1930	$2,045	$1.06	44d	1	1.30mi
17440 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2159	$2,300	$1.07	3d	1	1.30mi
17753 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2453	$2,245	$0.92	25d	1	1.30mi
17226 W Edinburg St Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	2001	$3,950	$1.97	15d	1	1.31mi
17923 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,900	$1.18	44d	1	1.31mi
17229 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2291	$2,245	$0.98	5d	1	1.32mi
17912 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2151	$2,155	$1.00	18d	1	1.33mi
17494 W Middlebury St Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.5	2001	$3,200	$1.60	25d	1	1.33mi
17862 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,600	$1.47	19d	1	1.37mi
17932 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2635	$2,195	$0.83	44d	1	1.39mi
15512 N 174th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2147	$3,000	$1.40	44d	1	1.41mi
17141 W Middlebury St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1862	$4,200	$2.26	44d	1	1.41mi
16668 W Sierra St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,150	$0.94	6d	1	1.49mi
17190 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,699	$1.13	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $93 · $1,116/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $425,000 Pending 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 162 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $425,000 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $425,000 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $425,000 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-03-27
    price $425,000 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Set on a desirable corner lot with ideal North and South exposure, this thoughtfully designed 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with a den offers comfort and style throughout. Vaulted ceilings and a bright great room enhance the open floorplan, while luxury vinyl flooring adds a modern touch. The kitchen features a breakfast bar and island, perfect for gathering. Outside, enjoy the charm of a mature pomegranate tree, completing a home that blends functionality with everyday enjoyment.

14. 2026-02-12
    price $435,000 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Set on a desirable corner lot with ideal North and South exposure, this thoughtfully designed 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with a den offers comfort and style throughout. Vaulted ceilings and a bright great room enhance the open floorplan, while luxury vinyl flooring adds a modern touch. The kitchen features a breakfast bar and island, perfect for gathering. Outside, enjoy the charm of a mature pomegranate tree, completing a home that blends functionality with everyday enjoyment.

15. 2026-01-02
    listed $449,900 Active 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Set on a desirable corner lot with ideal North and South exposure, this thoughtfully designed 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with a den offers comfort and style throughout. Vaulted ceilings and a bright great room enhance the open floorplan, while luxury vinyl flooring adds a modern touch. The kitchen features a breakfast bar and island, perfect for gathering. Outside, enjoy the charm of a mature pomegranate tree, completing a home that blends functionality with everyday enjoyment.

16. 2025-12-01
    historical
17. 2025-06-17
    price $471,900
18. 2025-05-08
    listed $479,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,690 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,805 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,116/yr (+$93/mo · 66.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$1,690
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,401
• − Management: −$2,401
• − HOA: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$15,887
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,813
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $425,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $435,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $449,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $471,900 ARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Listed $479,999 ARMLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,690 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.