5037 NW Ashwick Ln · Port Saint Lucie, FL 34987

$279,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,466 sqft · Townhouse · 25 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $191/sqft · 22% below area Est $360k · 22% under $200/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Piper blends efficient space with effortless style. A warm, open layout welcomes you into the great room, enhanced by hard-surface flooring and modern LED lighting. The adjoining gourmet kitchen features a central island, upgraded white-linen cabinets, and quartz countertops for a polished look. Upstairs, two spacious bedrooms offer comfortable retreats, while the grand owner's suite stands out with a dual-vanity bath and expansive walk-in closet. This move-in-ready home includes upgraded designer finishes, a fully finished garage, and all appliances. You'll also enjoy an extended rear patio with the option to privately fence your outdoor space-perfect for relaxation or entertaining.

Key facts

• Central island
• Quartz countertops
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• DUAL-VANITY BATH
• EXPANSIVE WALK-IN CLOSET
• EXTENDED REAR PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.1% in Port Saint Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1817 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,911 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.15%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,000
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -22.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14038 SW Safi Ter	2.11mi	3/2.0	1,657 (+13%)	1mo	$500,000	$302	41
10015 SW Torquay Dr	1.61mi	3/2.5	1,674 (+14%)	2mo	$357,020	$213	40
10007 SW Torquay Dr	1.61mi	3/2.5	1,751 (+19%)	2mo	$360,000	$206	38
9999 SW Torquay Dr	1.61mi	3/2.5	1,751 (+19%)	2mo	$372,880	$213	38
14294 SW Artesia Dr	2.10mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+30%)	2mo	$490,000	$257	37
14468 SW Urbane Way	1.61mi	3/2.0	1,894 (+29%)	2mo	$413,900	$219	36
10559 SW Orana Dr	1.91mi	3/2.0	1,894 (+29%)	4mo	$415,000	$219	34
14449 SW Ellison Dr	1.66mi	3/2.0	1,894 (+29%)	6mo	$420,000	$222	33
14132 SW Enzi Way	1.99mi	3/2.0	1,894 (+29%)	7mo	$425,000	$224	32
14198 SW Harker St	1.91mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,894 (+29%)	4mo	$485,000	$256	30
—	1.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (+21%)	8mo	$400,634	$225	26
—	1.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,886 (+29%)	8mo	$470,149	$249	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-32,860
• Equity at exit: $41,747

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-14,126
• Equity at exit: $24,208

Cash invested: $78,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active
• Median asking: $327,490 ($199/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +23.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34987

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1817
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,729 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,986/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,469

Max offer price $279,990

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $364	-5% $285	+0% $206	+5% $126	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $-10	-5% $98	+0% $206	+5% $313	+10% $421
Rate	-1.0pp $347	-0.5pp $277	base $206	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,998
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10644 NW Wilgrove LN St Lucie West, FL	2.0	2.5	1720	$2,400	$1.40	155d	1	0.01mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-07-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-07-12
   days on market $279,990 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-07-11
   days on market $279,990 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-07-10
   days on market $279,990 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-07-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-07-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-07-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-07-06
   days on market $279,990 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-07-05
   days on market $279,990 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-07-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-07-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-07-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-07-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-30
    days on market $279,990 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-29
    days on market $279,990 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-06-28
    days on market $279,990 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-06-28
    days on market $279,990 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-06-27
    days on market $279,990 Active 8 DOM
19. 2026-06-25
    days on market $279,990 Active 6 DOM
20. 2026-06-23
    days on market $279,990 Active 4 DOM
21. 2026-06-21
    days on market $279,990 Active 3 DOM
22. 2026-06-18
    remarks 699-char remark
23. 2026-06-18
    listed $279,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,986 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,324 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$338/yr (+$28/mo · 17.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,749
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,986
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,620
• − Management: −$2,620
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$2,106
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$505
• After-tax cash flow: $2,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,330–$21,990 screening

This move-in-ready townhouse is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and interior updates, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior updates (e.g., new flooring, paint) — Fresh updates can make the interior more appealing and increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Weatherbee Elementary School F FL #1,797/2,144 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Dan Mccarty Middle School F FL #542/571 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High St. Lucie West Centennial High F FL #351/667 Nat'l #9,347/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port Saint Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 338,016 people
• City population: 251,124
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $90,201
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 23% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.23%
• Current HPI: 269.222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B