4855 County Road 146 · The Villages, FL 34785

$39,950

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Other public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1958

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2005 Destiny park model with large addition. Lot 23 at Lake Deaton RV Park. This is a 1+ bedroom 1 bath home. Comes with washer, dryer, fridge, stove, microwave and dishwasher. Addition has a laundry room which also has a work bench. Other part of the addition was used as a second bedroom. Living room also has a divider which can be closed to use as an office or another sleeping area. Large shed as well. Cute fenced in front yard with covered porch. Private access to Lake Deaton. 5 minutes from Brownwood Square. Brand new Walmart across 44. Very quiet and clean park. 21 and older park. Must pass background check and be approved through park. Lot rent is $525 and includes water, trash and se

Key facts

• Work bench
• Covered porch
• Laundry room

Tags

• LARGE ADDITION
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• WORK BENCH
• FENCED IN FRONT YARD
• COVERED PORCH
• PRIVATE ACCESS TO LAKE DEATON

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $764 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.2% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.97%
• DSCR: 4.65
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $42,014
• Equity at exit: $5,957

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.81×
• Total profit: $98,520
• Equity at exit: $3,454

Cash invested: $11,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34785

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $599/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $764

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,950

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $792	-5% $778	+0% $764	+5% $750	+10% $736
Rent	-10% $660	-5% $712	+0% $764	+5% $816	+10% $868
Rate	-1.0pp $784	-0.5pp $774	base $764	+0.5pp $754	+1.0pp $743

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,988
• Closing costs: $1,198
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21204 Sandalwood Dr Unit 21-204 Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,550	$1.40	22d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,950 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,950 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,950 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,950 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,950 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,950 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,950 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,950 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,950 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,950 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-01
    listed $39,950 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,238
• − Property taxes: −$599
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − Depreciation: −$1,162
• Taxable income: $9,073
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,178
• After-tax cash flow: $6,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,568
• Household income: $66,136
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 730.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.14%
• Current HPI: 267.9137
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+121.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $39,950 FSBO.com
• 2005-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $900,000 Public Records
• 1988-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 1983-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1965-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records
• 1962-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,090 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.