33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 4, Wk 36 · Pacific City, OR 97135

$45,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 985 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Built 2007 Excellent condition $46/sqft · 25% below area Est $60k · 25% under $399/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Incredible ocean front cottage in Pacific City is the perfect fractional ownership home for you. This lower unit is steps from the ocean with a wonderful patio that showcases what ocean front living is all about. Enjoy your morning coffee while watching the waves crash over the Cape Kiwanda, whales frolic by Haystack Rock and Dory fisherman heading out for the day's catch. Nothing beats watching the sunset behind Haystack Rock at the end of a day full of adventures. The bedrooms and two bathrooms are just enough space to bring the family or friends. The Primary Suite features a spa tub and King bed with ocean view, second bedroom has queen bed. Each unit has its own washer and dryer. Gourmet kitchen, leather furniture and locally sourced art makes for stylish and comfortable living. The property manager takes care of everything including housekeeping, paying the bills and all the maintenance so all you have to worry about is how far you want to walk on the beach. This Cottage is gorgeous, relaxing and all yours for three weeks a year.

Key facts

• Ocean view
• Washer and dryer
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• OCEAN FRONT COTTAGE
• OCEAN VIEW
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WASHER AND DRYER
• PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $953 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.7% vs local median 1.9% in Pacific City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#173 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment B, housing B; Watch: commute D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Nestucca Valley SD 101J (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #101 of 183 in OR (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $639 of equity ($311 loan paydown + $328 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.80%
• DSCR: 5.04
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,714
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -24.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 10 Wk 29	0.08mi	2/2.0	985 (0%)	12mo	$45,916	$47	87
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 3WK29	0.09mi	2/2.0	985 (0%)	11mo	$47,000	$48	87
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 3 Wk 29	0.10mi	2/2.0	985 (0%)	13mo	$47,000	$48	84
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	985 (0%)	22mo	$53,500	$54	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 93.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $61,251
• Equity at exit: $14,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.7%
• Equity multiple: 12.14×
• Total profit: $140,384
• Equity at exit: $19,098

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97135

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$399
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $953

Break-even live

Break-even rent $899

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $399 · $4,788/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-02-14
    listed $45,000 Active 1060-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1060 chars)

    Incredible ocean front cottage in Pacific City is the perfect fractional ownership home for you. This lower unit is steps from the ocean with a wonderful patio that showcases what ocean front living is all about. Enjoy your morning coffee while watching the waves crash over the Cape Kiwanda, whales frolic by Haystack Rock and Dory fisherman heading out for the day's catch. Nothing beats watching the sunset behind Haystack Rock at the end of a day full of adventures. The bedrooms and two bathrooms are just enough space to bring the family or friends. The Primary Suite features a spa tub and King bed with ocean view, second bedroom has queen bed. Each unit has its own washer and dryer. Gourmet kitchen, leather furniture and locally sourced art makes for stylish and comfortable living. The property manager takes care of everything including housekeeping, paying the bills and all the maintenance so all you have to worry about is how far you want to walk on the beach. This Cottage is gorgeous, relaxing and all yours for three weeks a year.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,021
• − Management: −$2,021
• − HOA: −$4,788
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $11,707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,810
• After-tax cash flow: $8,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This stunning oceanfront cottage is move-in ready with excellent condition and a prime location. Upgrades in lighting, automation, and security would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures in bedrooms and living room — Modernize and improve ambiance
• Both Install smart home automation system — Enhance convenience and energy efficiency
• Both Add smart thermostat — Improve energy efficiency and comfort
• Both Install smart security system — Enhance safety and convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures in bedrooms and living room — Modernize and improve ambiance ↑
• Both Install smart home automation system — Enhance convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Improve energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Both Install smart security system — Enhance safety and convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nestucca Valley SD 101J
• NCES district ID: 4108700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,958
• Composite: 37.3/100
• National rank: #8956
• State rank: #101 of 183 in OR

Livability — Pacific City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #10340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pacific City, OR
• City population: 1,505
• Population (ZIP): 1,505

Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Italian 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Current HPI: 197.7747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Listed $45,000 OCMLS