136 Alameda Dr · Cedar Creek, TX 78612

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Built 1988 0.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on approximately 0.69 acres in Cedar Creek, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers space, privacy, and flexibility with no HOA. The property features an open backyard, covered rear porch, and ample outdoor space for entertaining, gardening, pets, or future improvements. Enjoy country-style living while remaining conveniently located near Bastrop, Austin, shopping, dining, and major commuter routes. A great opportunity for buyers seeking room to spread out without sacrificing accessibility.

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Open backyard
• Covered rear porch

Tags

• OPEN BACKYARD
• COVERED REAR PORCH
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Oversized parking; Total of 8 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Aerobic septic / septic tank; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available; Water connected
• Home design: Faces east; Updated/remodeled; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Shingle roof; Construction details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Deck; Shed(s); Partial fencing; No other exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; See remarks for additional interior and window details; Vinyl flooring; Has fireplace (1) — see remarks for features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($708/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.2% in Cedar Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bastrop ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #670 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 291 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.99%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-37,583
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-27,964
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78612

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,826/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,125

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $131	+0% $59	+5% $-13	+10% $-85
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-28	+0% $59	+5% $146	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $187	-0.5pp $124	base $59	+0.5pp $-7	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
220 Jeffrey Dr Cedar Creek, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,200	$1.46	44d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $255,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $276,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $276,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $276,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $276,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $276,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $276,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    remarks 498-char remark
11. 2026-06-03
    listed $276,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,826 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,666 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,840/yr (+$153/mo · 65.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$2,826
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$3,628
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$871
• After-tax cash flow: $1,578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bastrop ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809570
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,010
• Composite: 23.87/100
• National rank: #7799
• State rank: #670 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cedar Creek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Creek, TX
• City population: 19,830
• Population (ZIP): 19,830

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Two or more races 36% White 31% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 47% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.32%
• Current HPI: 314.1819
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $276,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,826 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.