15212 Lima Ln · Fort Worth, TX 76052

$297,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,937 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $351k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Cottage is a collection of new single-family homes for sale at the Rancho Canyon masterplan in Fort Worth, TX. The community includes fantastic on-site amenities including a relaxed swimming pool and playground. Residents will have access to large homesites and convenient access to parks and major highways for convenient shopping and entertainment. Receive a Battery Backup included with Base Power REP election upon selecting.

Key facts

• Access to parks
• Large homesites
• Swimming pool

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• LARGE HOMESITES
• ACCESS TO PARKS
• ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $297,999; Address: 15212 Lima Ln, Haslet, TX 76052

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property; Active status

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home — Morrow plan; Living area approximately 1,937

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sendera Ranch El (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 693 students, 31% FRL); Truett Wilson Middle (math 51% / reading 45%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,414 students, 30% FRL); V R Eaton H S (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 3,273 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1100 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,067 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $350,597
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1428 Mustang Canyon Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,877 (-3%)	1mo	$356,090	$190	81
15029 Hierba Mora Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,877 (-3%)	1mo	$343,190	$183	79
15064 Cactus Blossom Blvd	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,131 (+10%)	1mo	$372,990	$175	75
1456 Companero St	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-7%)	1mo	$344,990	$192	73
15009 Horseshoe Post Rd	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,738 (-10%)	1mo	$343,870	$198	72
1213 Hondo Canyon Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,062 (+6%)	1mo	$348,249	$169	67
1341 Buckaroo Blvd	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-11%)	1mo	$295,999	$172	65
1329 Buckaroo Blvd	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-11%)	1mo	$310,999	$181	65
1864 Mensa Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,813 (-6%)	0mo	$325,000	$179	58
1217 Hondo Canyon Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,177 (+12%)	1mo	$356,999	$164	57
1808 Eridanus Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,813 (-6%)	0mo	$338,000	$186	56
1628 Suncatcher Way	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,060 (+6%)	2mo	$370,000	$180	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,302
• Equity at exit: $44,433

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-78,227
• Equity at exit: $25,766

Cash invested: $83,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76052

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1100
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,481 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,470/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,607

Max offer price $283,577

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $3	+0% $-100	+5% $-203	+10% $-306
Rent	-10% $-296	-5% $-198	+0% $-100	+5% $-2	+10% $96
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $-24	base $-100	+0.5pp $-177	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,500
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15009 Cactus Blossom Blvd Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1981	$2,600	$1.31	46d	1	0.13mi
1413 Mustang Canyon Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,125	$1.22	6d	1	0.21mi
1416 Mustang Canyon Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1877	$2,400	$1.28	46d	1	0.23mi
1349 Buckaroo Blvd Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,100	$1.42	26d	1	0.23mi
15229 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,049	$1.41	46d	1	0.31mi
15029 Hierba Mora Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1877	$2,599	$1.38	17d	1	0.31mi
1340 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,089	$1.43	26d	1	0.31mi
1340 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,089	$1.43	46d	1	0.31mi
15241 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,099	$1.45	46d	1	0.32mi
15245 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,249	$1.31	46d	1	0.32mi
15249 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,089	$1.43	26d	1	0.33mi
15249 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,089	$1.43	46d	1	0.33mi
1328 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,099	$1.45	46d	1	0.33mi
1324 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,249	$1.31	9d	1	0.34mi
1324 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,249	$1.31	7d	1	0.34mi
15240 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,099	$1.45	9d	1	0.35mi
15244 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,119	$1.39	9d	1	0.35mi
1320 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,089	$1.43	17d	1	0.35mi
15248 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,059	$1.42	9d	1	0.35mi
1316 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,069	$1.36	7d	1	0.36mi
15241 Rangeland Rd Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,099	$1.45	9d	1	0.37mi
1312 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,099	$1.45	17d	1	0.37mi
15245 Rangeland Rd Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,089	$1.43	9d	1	0.37mi
15249 Rangeland Rd Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,099	$1.45	9d	1	0.37mi
1304 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,099	$1.45	9d	1	0.38mi
15016 Reyes Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,099	$1.44	3d	1	0.50mi
14628 Bootes Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	2099	$2,500	$1.19	46d	1	0.62mi
14933 Tejano St Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,300	$1.58	23d	1	0.62mi
15133 Hacienda Post Trl Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,999	$1.54	24d	1	0.65mi
14617 Wagon Train Trl Haslet, TX	5.0	3.0	2428	$3,200	$1.32	5d	1	0.65mi
14525 Bootes Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1659	$2,300	$1.39	4d	1	0.71mi
14532 Caelum Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	2189	$2,495	$1.14	46d	1	0.73mi
15021 Red Sands Trl Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$2,045	$1.56	46d	1	0.75mi
15024 Red Sands Trl Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1725	$2,200	$1.28	15d	1	0.78mi
14420 Bootes Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1659	$2,395	$1.44	21d	1	0.79mi
952 Dustwood Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,470	$1.34	26d	1	0.95mi
14144 Rabbit Brush Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,199	$1.18	1d	1	1.01mi
14144 Rabbit Brush Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,299	$1.24	14d	1	1.01mi
1241 Kachina Ln Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	2121	$2,200	$1.04	1d	1	1.02mi
917 Dustwood Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1996	$2,395	$1.20	46d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $297,999 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $297,999 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $297,999 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $297,999 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $297,999 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $297,999 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,999 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $297,999 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $297,999 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $297,999 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $297,999 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 433-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $297,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,693
• − Property taxes: −$4,470
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,381
• − Management: −$2,381
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$6,316
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,516
• After-tax cash flow: $320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,249
• Household income: $143,555
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 358.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Black 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.77%
• Current HPI: 235.7417
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B