153 Guidry Dr · Hemphill, TX 75948

$30,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 2012 Fair condition $51/sqft · 65% below area ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HOUSE ONLY FOR SALE. NO LAND. Adorable small cabin, furnished, MUST BE MOVED. Has separate bedroom, one bath, living room/kitchen combo, has bedroom furniture, living room furniture, most everything in cabin remains except washer and dryer. They are for sale. Ready to move in once moved onto your property. Covered porch included. Window units. Seller uses electric fireplace for warmth and atmosphere. Perfect for your very own, cozy residence or for guests, rental or MIL house. You can't build this furnished cottage for this price. SELLER MOTIVATED. PRICE DROPPED TO $30,000.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Separate bedroom
• Electric fireplace

Tags

• SEPARATE BEDROOM
• LIVING ROOM KITCHEN COMBO
• COVERED PORCH
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($737 rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#530 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hemphill ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 237 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sabine County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $27,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.54%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,548
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -65.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $19,022
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $47,348
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75948

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $737 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$155
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $385	+0% $375	+5% $364	+10% $354
Rent	-10% $317	-5% $346	+0% $375	+5% $404	+10% $433
Rate	-1.0pp $390	-0.5pp $382	base $375	+0.5pp $367	+1.0pp $359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $30,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $30,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-04-10
   price $30,000 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   HOUSE ONLY FOR SALE. NO LAND. Adorable small cabin, furnished, MUST BE MOVED. Has separate bedroom, one bath, living room/kitchen combo, has bedroom furniture, living room furniture, most everything in cabin remains except washer and dryer. They are for sale. Ready to move in once moved onto your property. Covered porch included. Window units. Seller uses electric fireplace for warmth and atmosphere. Perfect for your very own, cozy residence or for guests, rental or MIL house. You can't build this furnished cottage for this price. SELLER MOTIVATED. PRICE DROPPED TO $30,000.

4. 2026-02-24
   status Active 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   HOUSE ONLY FOR SALE. NO LAND. Adorable small cabin, furnished, MUST BE MOVED. Has separate bedroom, one bath, living room/kitchen combo, has bedroom furniture, living room furniture, most everything in cabin remains except washer and dryer. They are for sale. Ready to move in once moved onto your property. Covered porch included. Window units. Seller uses electric fireplace for warmth and atmosphere. Perfect for your very own, cozy residence or for guests, rental or MIL house. You can't build this furnished cottage for this price. SELLER MOTIVATED. PRICE DROPPED TO $30,000.

5. 2026-02-23
   price $40,000 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   HOUSE ONLY FOR SALE. NO LAND. Adorable small cabin, furnished, MUST BE MOVED. Has separate bedroom, one bath, living room/kitchen combo, has bedroom furniture, living room furniture, most everything in cabin remains except washer and dryer. They are for sale. Ready to move in once moved onto your property. Covered porch included. Window units. Seller uses electric fireplace for warmth and atmosphere. Perfect for your very own, cozy residence or for guests, rental or MIL house. You can't build this furnished cottage for this price. SELLER MOTIVATED. PRICE DROPPED TO $30,000.

6. 2025-12-02
   listed $50,000 Active 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   HOUSE ONLY FOR SALE. NO LAND. Adorable small cabin, furnished, MUST BE MOVED. Has separate bedroom, one bath, living room/kitchen combo, has bedroom furniture, living room furniture, most everything in cabin remains except washer and dryer. They are for sale. Ready to move in once moved onto your property. Covered porch included. Window units. Seller uses electric fireplace for warmth and atmosphere. Perfect for your very own, cozy residence or for guests, rental or MIL house. You can't build this furnished cottage for this price. SELLER MOTIVATED. PRICE DROPPED TO $30,000.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$707
• − Management: −$707
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $4,275
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,026
• After-tax cash flow: $3,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Painting the interior walls and landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor roof — debris and leaves around
• Minor exterior — siding appears aged
• Minor interior walls — paint appears worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting interior walls — enhances appearance and value
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and value
• Both roof repair — prevents further damage and enhances value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · debris and leaves around	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior · siding appears aged	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · paint appears worn	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting interior walls — enhances appearance and value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both roof repair — prevents further damage and enhances value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemphill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822890
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,330
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5821
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hemphill

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #530
• US rank: #10376

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,218

Population outlook (Sabine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,354 people
• By 2030: 8,806 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 7,871 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 7,224 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 6,351 · -32.1%
• By 2100: 5,465 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Vietnamese 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sabine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+78.5) · D 10.6% · R 89.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -54.8pp · 2024: -78.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+78.5 2020: R+75.0 2016: R+72.8 2012: R+63.9 2008: R+54.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.26%
• Current HPI: 159.0093
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $30,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $40,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $50,000 Deep East Texas MLS