18312 Crestwind Ln · Elgin, TX 78621

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2006 6,655 sqft lot Est $280k · 8% under $167/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

7/14/2021 -No more showings. Beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home with formal dining, living area. It is a must see, including the back yard with large 40' trees. This corner lot home has recent flooring in all rooms, 2021 roof, both full bathrooms updated, fencing being installed by end of month, appliances 3-4 years old, outside AC unit less than 10 years old, facia boards being replaced. This is the perfect home for YOU. Washer/Dryer and Refrigerator DO NOT convey. Please remove your shoes or wear shoe covers inside the house and a mask. The family thanks you in advance for that. Please wait for a response from the Seller before showing. Thank you.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Generous cabinetry
• Large gas stove

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• EPOXY COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE GAS STOVE
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• GENEROUS CABINETRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Westwind), association fee applies; Community amenities include dog park, playground, and park

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; Garage (2 covered spaces), total 5 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Public sewer (connected); Electricity available and connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property; Faces east; Entry on main level
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built per public records
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; No exterior steps; Wood backyard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Electric range; Free-standing electric oven; Free-standing refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Three main level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: In-law floorplan; Main level primary bedroom; No interior steps; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Smart thermostat / programmable thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; In-unit laundry; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-458 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (31.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,168 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.57%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,140
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13605 Barn Chime St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,610 (0%)	2mo	$289,990	$180	93
13500 Barn Chime St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+2%)	3mo	$274,990	$167	89
13420 Barn Chime St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+2%)	3mo	$284,990	$173	88
13609 Barn Chime St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+2%)	4mo	$299,990	$182	87
13512 Muny Pkwy	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+2%)	3mo	$289,990	$176	87
18309 Rock Sage Cv	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,766 (+10%)	2mo	$279,900	$158	76
13708 Sierra Wind Ln	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,833 (+14%)	1mo	$254,999	$139	71
25641 Flora Bella Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+4%)	2mo	$299,999	$179	61
13520 Knights Branch Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-1%)	2mo	$230,000	$144	61
13701 Scarlett Song Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,721 (+7%)	1mo	$299,999	$174	58
13601 Hamilton Hart Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,840 (+14%)	1mo	$329,890	$179	50
17813 Boardtree Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,684 (+5%)	3mo	$232,990	$138	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $112,426
• Equity at exit: $233,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $355,021
• Equity at exit: $503,180

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,139 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$514 /mo · $6,168/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$167
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,718

Max offer price $178,168

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-311	-5% $-384	+0% $-458	+5% $-531	+10% $-604
Rent	-10% $-627	-5% $-542	+0% $-458	+5% $-373	+10% $-289
Rate	-1.0pp $-327	-0.5pp $-392	base $-458	+0.5pp $-525	+1.0pp $-593

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	20d	1	0.12mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	5d	1	0.25mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	5d	1	0.47mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	24d	1	0.47mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	5d	1	0.62mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	18d	1	0.64mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	24d	1	0.64mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	24d	1	0.71mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	3d	1	0.74mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	17d	1	0.85mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	17d	1	0.87mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	24d	1	0.87mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	44d	1	0.87mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	15d	1	0.88mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	44d	1	0.97mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	44d	1	0.99mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	2d	6	1.20mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	18d	1	1.22mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	5d	1	1.24mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	24d	1	1.24mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	18d	1	1.27mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	2d	1	1.30mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	44d	1	1.32mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	24d	1	1.34mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	44d	1	1.34mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	5d	1	1.36mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	5d	1	1.39mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	44d	1	1.40mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	24d	1	1.42mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	44d	1	1.45mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $167 · $2,004/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 687-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $259,000 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,168 · $514/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,168 · $514/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$6,168
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,053
• − Management: −$2,053
• − HOA: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$9,952
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,388
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2021-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-13 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2021-08-01 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2021-07-14 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2021-07-09 Listed $249,900 Unlock MLS
• 2006-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,168 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.