Napali Plan · Saint Cloud, FL 34772

$444,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,546 sqft · SingleFamily · 150 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.3/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Designed for modern lifestyles, this new two-story home features a comfortable main-level owner's suite, providing a private retreat with a full bathroom and a walk-in closet. Another bedroom with an en-suite bathroom can be found just off the foyer, near an open-concept floorplan that creates a welcoming space for everyday living between the kitchen, dining room and family room. A versatile game room anchors the top level, easily accessible from three nearby bedrooms.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 149 days

🏗️ New construction. The $444,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $649,290.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $445k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-28k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (29.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (38.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (38.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 3.6% in Saint Cloud — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hickory Tree Elementary School (math 64% / reading 59%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 795 students, 48% FRL); St. Cloud Middle School (math 52% / reading 50%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,229 students, 60% FRL); Harmony High School (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,822 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1285 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($392k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $274,428 (38.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.31%
• DSCR: 0.32
• GRM: 19.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $649,290
• List price: $444,990
• Delta: -31.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4272 LA Salle Ave	0.96mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,582 (+1%)	6mo	$739,999	$287	50
4454 Mildred Bass Rd	0.66mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,666 (+5%)	28mo	$635,000	$238	36
3924 Crosley Ave	1.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,062 (-19%)	2mo	$410,000	$199	34
4445 Mildred Bass Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,052 (-19%)	2mo	$440,000	$214	33
4266 LA Salle Ave	1.00mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,795 (+10%)	12mo	$775,000	$277	31
4091 Lippman Rd	1.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,218 (-13%)	12mo	$635,000	$286	29
4125 Packard Ave	1.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,242 (-12%)	14mo	$755,000	$337	29
4056 Kaiser Ave	1.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,176 (-14%)	25mo	$500,000	$230	12
4492 Hunting Lodge Dr	1.34mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (-22%)	26mo	$449,995	$227	11
4505 Packard Ave S	1.02mi	6/4.5 (+1)	3,130 (+23%)	35mo	$1,250,000	$399	9

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -46.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-254,797
• Equity at exit: $96,811

10-year hold

• IRR: -91.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.31×
• Total profit: $-419,665
• Equity at exit: $56,139

Cash invested: $181,801 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 12 under contract
• Median asking: $447,240 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 50 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +38.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34772

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 1285
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,744 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,405
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$812 /mo · $9,739/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-2,319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,680

Max offer price $313,710

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,870	-5% $-2,095	+0% $-2,319	+5% $-2,543	+10% $-2,768
Rent	-10% $-2,536	-5% $-2,428	+0% $-2,319	+5% $-2,211	+10% $-2,102
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,992	-0.5pp $-2,154	base $-2,319	+0.5pp $-2,487	+1.0pp $-2,659

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,322
• Closing costs: $19,479
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $477,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Napali)Active listing
• Construction: Living area approximately 2546Built as part of the Napali plan (new construction inventory type: Plan)
• Exterior features: 308 Cypress Fork Trl, Saint Cloud FL 34772

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Napali)New construction plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $444,990 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $444,990 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $444,990 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $444,990 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $444,990 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $444,990 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $444,990 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $444,990 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $444,990 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $444,990 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $444,990 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $444,990 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $444,990 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $444,990 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $441,990 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $441,990 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $441,990 Active 129 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $441,740 Active 126 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $441,490 Active 125 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $441,490 Active 124 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $441,490 Active 123 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $441,490 Active 122 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $441,490 Active 121 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $441,490 Active 120 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $441,490 Active 117 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $441,490 Active 116 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $441,490 Active 115 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $441,490 Active 114 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $441,490 Active 113 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $441,490 Active 112 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $441,490 Active 111 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $441,490 Active 110 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    pricedays on market $441,490 Active 109 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $441,240 Active 108 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $441,240 Active 107 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $441,240 Active 105 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    pricedays on market $441,240 Active 104 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $446,240 Active 103 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $446,240 Active 101 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $446,240 Active 100 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $446,240 Active 99 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $446,240 Active 98 DOM
43. 2026-08-01
    price $446,240 Active 95 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $445,990 Active 95 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $445,990 Active 94 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $445,990 Active 93 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $445,990 Active 92 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $445,990 Active 90 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $445,990 Active 88 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $445,990 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,370
• − Property taxes: −$9,739
• − Insurance: −$3,246
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,635
• − Management: −$2,635
• − Depreciation: −$18,888
• Taxable loss: −$40,582
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,740
• After-tax cash flow: $-18,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern two-story home is in excellent condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a comfortable main-level owner's suite and an open-concept floorplan. The home's curb appeal and interior design can be further enhanced with minor updates to the exterior and interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Modern window treatments can improve the home's aesthetic and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Modern lighting fixtures can improve the home's ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 52/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Canoe Creek K-8 B FL #653/2,144 Nat'l #6,943/41,679 Middle St. Cloud Middle School C FL #237/571 Nat'l #3,276/14,009 High Harmony High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Saint Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 447,624 people
• City population: 106,667
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,390
• Household income: $97,868
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 20% Cuban 2% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 36% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.55%
• Current HPI: 274.6517
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $477,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Napali)Active listing
• Construction: Living area approximately 2546Built as part of the Napali plan (new construction inventory type: Plan)
• Exterior features: 308 Cypress Fork Trl, Saint Cloud FL 34772

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Napali)New construction plan