Barlow Plan · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$325,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,279 sqft · SingleFamily · 412 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 411 days

🏗️ New construction. The $325,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $351,822.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $326k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.1% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 412 days — a 12% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $286,871 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 412 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,822
• List price: $325,990
• Delta: -7.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2526 Green Jasper Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,339 (+3%)	1mo	$373,900	$160	86
8830 Ice Quartz Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,339 (+3%)	5mo	$349,900	$150	85
8934 Ice Quartz Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,339 (+3%)	5mo	$349,900	$150	83
8326 Holly Blue Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,393 (+5%)	1mo	$430,990	$180	68
2707 Jasper Oaks Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	2,009 (-12%)	3mo	$388,306	$193	65
8314 Holly Blue Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,393 (+5%)	3mo	$438,540	$183	64
8315 Holly Blue Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (-8%)	3mo	$421,240	$201	55
8227 Holly Blue Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (-8%)	5mo	$423,240	$202	51
8215 Holly Blue Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (-8%)	5mo	$421,240	$201	49
8211 Holly Blue Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,517 (+10%)	1mo	$374,990	$149	48
8219 Holly Blue Dr	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,548 (+12%)	4mo	$453,990	$178	47
9207 Coleridge Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,033 (-11%)	1mo	$288,000	$142	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-72,515
• Equity at exit: $52,458

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-102,096
• Equity at exit: $30,419

Cash invested: $98,510 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.4 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $376,109 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 383 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1445
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,914 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,845
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$440 /mo · $5,277/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,078

Max offer price $333,125

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $-8	+0% $-129	+5% $-251	+10% $-372
Rent	-10% $-359	-5% $-244	+0% $-129	+5% $-14	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $-40	base $-129	+0.5pp $-220	+1.0pp $-313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,956
• Closing costs: $10,555
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,950	$1.59	16d	1	0.12mi
9207 Penfield Dr Arcola, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,121	$1.14	0d	1	0.80mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,836	$1.15	21d	1	0.90mi
9314 Eckert Rd Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	2309	$2,999	$1.30	38d	1	0.94mi
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2605	$2,276	$0.87	48d	1	1.18mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,726	$1.57	30d	1	1.25mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	92d	1	1.33mi
3543 Whitman Dr Iowa Colony, TX	4.0	3.0	2991	$3,299	$1.10	4d	1	1.38mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	92d	1	1.45mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	92d	1	1.46mi
8043 House Bank Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,550	$1.02	68d	1	1.48mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	0d	8	1.49mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	92d	7	1.49mi

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-08-03
   days on market $325,990 Active 412 DOM
2. 2026-07-31
   days on market $325,990 Active 409 DOM
3. 2026-07-30
   days on market $325,990 Active 407 DOM
4. 2026-07-28
   days on market $325,990 Active 406 DOM
5. 2026-07-26
   days on market $325,990 Active 404 DOM
6. 2026-07-24
   days on market $325,990 Active 402 DOM
7. 2026-07-23
   days on market $325,990 Active 401 DOM
8. 2026-07-22
   days on market $325,990 Active 400 DOM
9. 2026-07-21
   days on market $325,990 Active 399 DOM
10. 2026-07-20
    days on market $325,990 Active 398 DOM
11. 2026-07-18
    days on market $325,990 Active 396 DOM
12. 2026-07-18
    days on market $325,990 Active 395 DOM
13. 2026-07-16
    days on market $325,990 Active 394 DOM
14. 2026-07-15
    days on market $325,990 Active 393 DOM
15. 2026-07-13
    days on market $325,990 Active 391 DOM
16. 2026-07-13
    days on market $325,990 Active 390 DOM
17. 2026-07-11
    days on market $325,990 Active 389 DOM
18. 2026-07-10
    days on market $325,990 Active 388 DOM
19. 2026-07-09
    days on market $325,990 Active 387 DOM
20. 2026-07-07
    days on market $325,990 Active 385 DOM
21. 2026-07-06
    days on market $325,990 Active 384 DOM
22. 2026-07-06
    days on market $325,990 Active 383 DOM
23. 2026-07-05
    days on market $325,990 Active 382 DOM
24. 2026-07-03
    days on market $325,990 Active 381 DOM
25. 2026-07-02
    days on market $325,990 Active 380 DOM
26. 2026-07-01
    days on market $325,990 Active 379 DOM
27. 2026-06-30
    days on market $325,990 Active 378 DOM
28. 2026-06-29
    days on market $325,990 Active 377 DOM
29. 2026-06-28
    days on market $325,990 Active 376 DOM
30. 2026-06-27
    days on market $325,990 Active 375 DOM
31. 2026-06-26
    days on market $325,990 Active 374 DOM
32. 2026-06-24
    days on market $325,990 Active 372 DOM
33. 2026-06-22
    days on market $325,990 Active 370 DOM
34. 2026-06-21
    days on market $325,990 Active 369 DOM
35. 2026-06-18
    days on market $325,990 Active 366 DOM
36. 2026-06-17
    days on market $325,990 Active 365 DOM
37. 2026-06-16
    days on market $325,990 Active 364 DOM
38. 2026-06-15
    days on market $325,990 Active 363 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    days on market $325,990 Active 361 DOM
40. 2026-06-13
    days on market $325,990 Active 360 DOM
41. 2026-06-09
    days on market $325,990 Active 357 DOM
42. 2026-06-08
    days on market $325,990 Active 356 DOM
43. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,990 Active 355 DOM
44. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,990 Active 352 DOM
45. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,990 Active 351 DOM
46. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,990 Active 350 DOM
47. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,990 Active 349 DOM
48. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,990 Active 348 DOM
49. 2025-06-18
    listed $325,990 Active 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,708
• − Property taxes: −$5,277
• − Insurance: −$1,759
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,798
• − Management: −$2,798
• − Depreciation: −$10,235
• Taxable loss: −$7,604
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,825
• After-tax cash flow: $275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and appearance ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

---

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-18 Listed $325,990 Zillow