207 E Aero Dr · Payson, AZ 85541

$309,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,455 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1966 10,325 sqft lot $212/sqft · 27% below area Est $422k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated seller, Nice 4-bedroom 2-bath site-built home in Payson. Large lot. 24 acre, with a large, fenced back yard. There is a pellet stove in the family room and a fireplace in the living room. laminate and tile flooring. large utility shed on a slab in the backyard, separated garden area with the metal shed as well with a little TLC. This would make a great starter home.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Utility shed
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• FENCED BACK YARD
• PELLET STOVE
• FIREPLACE
• UTILITY SHED
• SEPARATED GARDEN AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-819/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Payson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#44 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, health & safety F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Julia Randall Elementary School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #586 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 576 students, 58% FRL); Rim Country Middle School (math 21% / reading 31%, grade F, #100 of 218 statewide, top 47%, 493 students, 53% FRL); Payson High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #141 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 790 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 710 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; list at $309k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,992 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $421,981
• List price: $309,000
• Delta: -26.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1017 S Ponderosa St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,462 (+0%)	4mo	$375,000	$256	81
214 E Aero Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-11%)	5mo	$295,000	$228	71
1019 S Ponderosa St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (+13%)	0mo	$530,000	$321	62
207 E Phoenix St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+10%)	10mo	$475,000	$297	61
609 E Phoenix St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+0%)	18mo	$380,000	$261	60
414 W Frontier St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,412 (-3%)	11mo	$275,000	$195	57
604 E Amarillo Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,515 (+4%)	9mo	$475,000	$314	54
913 S Coronado Way	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+9%)	8mo	$520,000	$329	44
912 S Coronado Way	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-12%)	11mo	$475,000	$371	38
917 S Palomino Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,242 (-15%)	1mo	$459,000	$370	36
212 S Goodnow Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (-14%)	4mo	$470,000	$376	34
707 E Cherry St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+10%)	16mo	$474,900	$297	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-54,564
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-53,698
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,158/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,336

Max offer price $296,939

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $19	+0% $-68	+5% $-156	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-157	+0% $-68	+5% $21	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $10	base $-68	+0.5pp $-148	+1.0pp $-230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1015 S Goodfellow Rd Payson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$2,000	$1.83	23d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $309,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $309,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $309,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $309,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $309,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $309,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $309,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $309,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,000 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,000 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,000 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,000 Active 103 DOM
18. 2026-04-01
    price $314,000 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Nice 4-bedroom 2-bath site-built home in Payson. Large lot.24 acre, with a large, fenced back yard. There is a pellet stove in the family room and a fireplace in the living room. laminate and tile flooring. large utility shed on a slab in the backyard, separated garden area with the metal shed as well with a little TLC. This would make a great starter home. Motivated seller

19. 2026-04-01
    price $314,000 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Nice 4-bedroom 2-bath site-built home in Payson. Large lot.24 acre, with a large, fenced back yard. There is a pellet stove in the family room and a fireplace in the living room. laminate and tile flooring. large utility shed on a slab in the backyard, separated garden area with the metal shed as well with a little TLC. This would make a great starter home. Motivated seller

20. 2026-02-16
    listed $319,000 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Nice 4-bedroom 2-bath site-built home in Payson. Large lot.24 acre, with a large, fenced back yard. There is a pellet stove in the family room and a fireplace in the living room. laminate and tile flooring. large utility shed on a slab in the backyard, separated garden area with the metal shed as well with a little TLC. This would make a great starter home. Motivated seller

21. 2026-02-15
    listed $319,000 Active 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    Motivated seller, Nice 4-bedroom 2-bath site-built home in Payson. Large lot. 24 acre, with a large, fenced back yard. There is a pellet stove in the family room and a fireplace in the living room. laminate and tile flooring. large utility shed on a slab in the backyard, separated garden area with the metal shed as well with a little TLC. This would make a great starter home.

22. 2020-05-04
    soldstatus $195,000
23. 2020-05-04
    soldstatus $195,000
24. 2019-08-26
    listed $190,000
25. 2019-07-05
    soldstatus $155,000
26. 2019-07-05
    soldstatus $155,000
27. 2018-07-17
    listed $159,000
28. 2018-07-17
    listed $159,000
29. 2017-11-01
    historical
30. 2017-10-05
    listed $160,000
31. 2017-09-30
    historical
32. 2016-12-27
    listed $160,000
33. 2010-01-02
    historical
34. 2009-07-03
    listed $154,900
35. 2003-04-11
    soldstatus $109,500
36. 1996-05-30
    soldstatus $69,000
37. 1990-03-09
    soldstatus $51,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,158 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,039 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$881/yr (+$73/mo · 76.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$1,158
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$6,322
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,517
• After-tax cash flow: $698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Payson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8740

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Payson, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• City population: 23,382
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+505.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $314,000 CAAR
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $314,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $319,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed $319,000 CAAR
• 2020-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-04 Sold (MLS) $195,000 CAAR
• 2019-08-26 Listed $190,000 CAAR
• 2019-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-05 Sold (MLS) $155,000 CAAR
• 2018-07-17 Listed $159,000 ARMLS
• 2018-07-17 Listed $159,000 CAAR
• 2017-11-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2017-10-05 Listed $160,000 ARMLS
• 2017-09-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2016-12-27 Listed $160,000 ARMLS
• 2010-01-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-07-03 Listed $154,900 ARMLS
• 2003-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $109,500 Public Records
• 1996-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 1990-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $51,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,158 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.