2154 Bravos Manor Ln · Fresno, TX 77545

$319,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,338 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2018 7,100 sqft lot Est $313k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 2256 Floor Plan, Elevation "A" by D. R. Horton Homes! New Gorgeous two story home showcases 4 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms, upgraded extended covered front porch entry, rounded corners, soaring ceilings, 2"blinds & tile floors throughout! Elegant formal dining room! Gourmet Kitchen w/ granite counters, tile back-splash, tall cabinets, large island, working station breakfast bar, stainless steel appliances & walk-in pantry which flows gracefully into huge living room with high vaulted ceilings! Master downstairs with Huge luxurious master bathroom with dual sink vanity, huge glass shower, built for two & walk-in-closet! Upstairs you will find huge game room, 3 Large secondary bedrooms & 1 full bath with dual sinks & more! Covered rear patio! Amazing Standard energy features include HERS Energy Rated & Tank-less Water Heater & more! Wonderful Amenity Center with Pool, Splash Pad, Lakes & Walking Trails! NO FLOODING IN SUBDIVISION!

Key facts

• Two-story home
• Primary suite
• Granite countertops

Tags

• TWO-STORY HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• GAS RANGE
• PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Concrete road surface
• HOA & community: Post Oak Property association; Annual association fee of $650; Community has curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Security gate; Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Built in 2018; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Fully fenced backyard; Fence; Paved driveway; Patio; Deck; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 10
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Bath in primary bedroom; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Vanity; Walk-in pantry; Window treatments; Kitchen/dining combo; Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rosa Parks El (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 651 students, 76% FRL); Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,336 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $313,292
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3007 Acacia Fair Ln	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,351 (+1%)	2mo	$310,000	$132	83
2543 Tucker Creek Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,323 (-1%)	1mo	$300,000	$129	81
2403 Tall Sequoia Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,340 (+0%)	1mo	$332,500	$142	79
2611 Cottage Step Trl Trl	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,392 (+2%)	2mo	$295,000	$123	75
1931 Acorn Glen Trl	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,480 (+6%)	1mo	$279,900	$113	74
2406 Grove View Trl	0.18mi	4/2.0	2,165 (-7%)	2mo	$297,500	$137	74
1927 Vermillion View St	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,215 (-5%)	1mo	$277,500	$125	74
3111 Cambridge Falls Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,352 (+1%)	3mo	$315,000	$134	72
2923 Vales Point Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	2,079 (-11%)	1mo	$306,900	$148	69
2050 Bravos Manor Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,658 (+14%)	3mo	$369,990	$139	67
2022 Wellfleet Xing	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,098 (-10%)	0mo	$290,000	$138	67
2531 Tucker Crk	0.35mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,626 (+12%)	3mo	$319,900	$122	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-55,476
• Equity at exit: $62,434

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-79,919
• Equity at exit: $53,628

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,913 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$579 /mo · $6,950/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,094

Max offer price $294,734

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-52	+0% $-143	+5% $-234	+10% $-324
Rent	-10% $-373	-5% $-258	+0% $-143	+5% $-28	+10% $87
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-62	base $-143	+0.5pp $-226	+1.0pp $-310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2123 Witham Park Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	4.0	3026	$2,850	$0.94	45d	1	0.48mi
3526 Cambridge Falls Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	3.0	3136	$2,624	$0.84	22d	1	0.52mi
2642 Sunlit Meadow Trl Fresno, TX	5.0	3.5	2785	$4,000	$1.44	45d	1	0.59mi
3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$4,200	$1.62	45d	1	1.07mi
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	7d	1	1.09mi
3932 Teal Run Place Ct Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	1914	$2,150	$1.12	45d	1	1.18mi
3806 Teal Maple Ct Fresno, TX	4.0	3.5	2318	$2,146	$0.93	4d	1	1.18mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2278	$2,395	$1.05	21d	1	1.20mi
3211 Breckinridge Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2920	$2,550	$0.87	22d	1	1.25mi
2709 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	22d	1	1.37mi
2707 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	3d	1	1.37mi
3212 Aldridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,650	$1.06	22d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,999 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,999 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $319,999 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,999 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,999 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,999 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,999 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,999 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 693-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    listed $324,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,950 · $579/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,950 · $579/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$6,950
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,797
• − Management: −$2,797
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$7,065
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,696
• After-tax cash flow: $-21/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 360.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+28.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $324,999 HARMLS
• 2018-11-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-10-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-09-12 Price Changed $248,990 HARMLS
• 2018-08-15 Price Changed $252,115 HARMLS
• 2018-08-15 Price Changed $250,990 HARMLS
• 2018-06-06 Listed $252,115 HARMLS

Property tax history

+44.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,950 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.