1435 Ellis St · Greenbackville, VA 23356

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,137 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1935 1.48 ac lot Est $196k · 23% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home located in the quant fishing village of Greenbackville. With a little TLC, this home can be ready for all of your future needs. Includes a kitchen, living room, dining room, utility room, front enclosed porch, three bedrooms, and a bathroom. Located just around the corner from the public boat launch and dock. Close to a local restaurant, churches, and the local fire company. Home is being sold as is, but has lots of potential at an affordable price. Two additional outbuildings and lots of yard space.

Key facts

• Public boat launch
• Lots of yard space
• 1.48 acre lot

Tags

• PUBLIC BOAT LAUNCH
• TWO ADDITIONAL OUTBUILDINGS
• LOTS OF YARD SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $773 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#536 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, health & safety A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 303 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.99%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,564
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39046 Church St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,252 (+10%)	8mo	$215,000	$172	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $53,743
• Equity at exit: $53,014

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $140,437
• Equity at exit: $71,897

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23356

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $602/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $773

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,222

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38040 Davey Jones Blvd Greenbackville, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	13d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    listed $149,900 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Home located in the quant fishing village of Greenbackville. With a little TLC, this home can be ready for all of your future needs. Includes a kitchen, living room, dining room, utility room, front enclosed porch, three bedrooms, and a bathroom. Located just around the corner from the public boat launch and dock. Close to a local restaurant, churches, and the local fire company. Home is being sold as is, but has lots of potential at an affordable price. Two additional outbuildings and lots of yard space.

17. 2026-03-05
    status Active
18. 2025-08-18
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $602 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,229 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$627/yr (+$52/mo · 104.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$602
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $7,269
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,745
• After-tax cash flow: $7,529/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

Livability — Greenbackville

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #536
• US rank: #24776

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greenbackville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 1,738

Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 6% Subsaharan African 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Current HPI: 191.9035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $149,900 ESAR
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — ESAR
• 2025-08-18 Listed $165,000 ESAR

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $602 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.