5214 Sour Dough Rd · Snowflake, AZ 85937

$299,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,801 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 252 Days on market

Built 2007 19 ac lot $167/sqft · 35% below area Est $465k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Embrace peaceful rural living on nearly 20 acres with direct access to State Land, perfect for endless riding, hiking, and exploring. This charming home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a dedicated office space (easily a small third bedroom), and a spacious mudroom that flows directly into the laundry room, ideal for the country lifestyle. Outside, you'll find a large detached garage, outbuilding, barn, and corral, ready for horses, livestock, or your favorite outdoor hobbies. Whether you're seeking a full-time homestead, a weekend escape, or an investment in wide-open space, this one-of-a-kind property offers exceptional value and unmatched potential. Seller is a Licensed Real Estate Agent in Arizona.

Key facts

• Outbuilding
• Barn
• Spacious mudroom

Tags

• DIRECT ACCESS TO STATE LAND
• DEDICATED OFFICE SPACE
• SPACIOUS MUDROOM
• LARGE DETACHED GARAGE
• OUTBUILDING
• BARN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-380 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (40.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (40.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.9% in Snowflake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#46 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Snowflake Unified District (4391) (town): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #36 of 249 in AZ (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $300k implies a 2900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $177,854 (40.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.43%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $465,000
• List price: $299,995
• Delta: -35.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $139,017
• Equity at exit: $270,259

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $428,128
• Equity at exit: $582,824

Cash invested: $83,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85937

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,045/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,260

Max offer price $232,822

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,999
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,995 Active 252 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,995 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,995 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,995 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,995 Active 247 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,995 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,995 Active 244 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,995 Active 243 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,995 Active 242 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,995 Active 241 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,995 Active 238 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,995 Active 237 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,995 Active 236 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,995 Active 235 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,995 Active 234 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,995 Active 233 DOM
17. 2026-01-09
    price $299,995 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    Embrace peaceful rural living on nearly 20 acres with direct access to State Land, perfect for endless riding, hiking, and exploring. This charming site-built home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a dedicated office space (easily a small third bedroom), and a spacious mudroom that flows directly into the laundry room, ideal for the country lifestyle. Outside, you'll find a large detached garage, outbuilding, barn, and corral, ready for horses, livestock, or your favorite outdoor hobbies. Whether you're seeking a full-time homestead, a weekend escape, or an investment in wide-open space, this one-of-a-kind property offers exceptional value and unmatched potential. Seller is a Licensed Real Estate Agent in Arizona.

18. 2026-01-09
    price $299,995 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    Embrace peaceful rural living on nearly 20 acres with direct access to State Land, perfect for endless riding, hiking, and exploring. This charming site-built home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a dedicated office space (easily a small third bedroom), and a spacious mudroom that flows directly into the laundry room, ideal for the country lifestyle. Outside, you'll find a large detached garage, outbuilding, barn, and corral, ready for horses, livestock, or your favorite outdoor hobbies. Whether you're seeking a full-time homestead, a weekend escape, or an investment in wide-open space, this one-of-a-kind property offers exceptional value and unmatched potential. Seller is a Licensed Real Estate Agent in Arizona.

19. 2025-12-17
    price $309,995 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    Embrace peaceful rural living on nearly 20 acres with direct access to State Land, perfect for endless riding, hiking, and exploring. This charming site-built home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a dedicated office space (easily a small third bedroom), and a spacious mudroom that flows directly into the laundry room, ideal for the country lifestyle. Outside, you'll find a large detached garage, outbuilding, barn, and corral, ready for horses, livestock, or your favorite outdoor hobbies. Whether you're seeking a full-time homestead, a weekend escape, or an investment in wide-open space, this one-of-a-kind property offers exceptional value and unmatched potential. Seller is a Licensed Real Estate Agent in Arizona.

20. 2025-12-04
    price $309,995 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Embrace peaceful rural living on nearly 20 acres with direct access to State Land, perfect for endless riding, hiking, and exploring. This charming home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a dedicated office space (easily a small third bedroom), and a spacious mudroom that flows directly into the laundry room, ideal for the country lifestyle. Outside, you'll find a large detached garage, outbuilding, barn, and corral, ready for horses, livestock, or your favorite outdoor hobbies. Whether you're seeking a full-time homestead, a weekend escape, or an investment in wide-open space, this one-of-a-kind property offers exceptional value and unmatched potential. Seller is a Licensed Real Estate Agent in Arizona.

21. 2025-10-09
    listed $319,000 Active 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    Embrace peaceful rural living on nearly 20 acres with direct access to State Land, perfect for endless riding, hiking, and exploring. This charming site-built home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a dedicated office space (easily a small third bedroom), and a spacious mudroom that flows directly into the laundry room, ideal for the country lifestyle. Outside, you'll find a large detached garage, outbuilding, barn, and corral, ready for horses, livestock, or your favorite outdoor hobbies. Whether you're seeking a full-time homestead, a weekend escape, or an investment in wide-open space, this one-of-a-kind property offers exceptional value and unmatched potential. Seller is a Licensed Real Estate Agent in Arizona.

22. 2025-10-09
    listed $319,000 Active 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    Embrace peaceful rural living on nearly 20 acres with direct access to State Land, perfect for endless riding, hiking, and exploring. This charming site-built home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a dedicated office space (easily a small third bedroom), and a spacious mudroom that flows directly into the laundry room, ideal for the country lifestyle. Outside, you'll find a large detached garage, outbuilding, barn, and corral, ready for horses, livestock, or your favorite outdoor hobbies. Whether you're seeking a full-time homestead, a weekend escape, or an investment in wide-open space, this one-of-a-kind property offers exceptional value and unmatched potential. Seller is a Licensed Real Estate Agent in Arizona.

23. 2025-06-05
    status Pending
24. 2025-06-05
    historical
25. 2025-05-23
    price $299,000
26. 2025-05-22
    price $299,000
27. 2025-04-02
    price $300,000
28. 2025-04-02
    price $300,000
29. 2025-02-26
    price $315,000
30. 2025-02-26
    price $315,000
31. 2025-01-15
    price $319,000
32. 2025-01-15
    price $319,000
33. 2024-12-24
    price $320,000
34. 2024-12-24
    price $320,000
35. 2024-12-06
    price $325,000
36. 2024-12-06
    price $325,000
37. 2024-11-06
    price $329,000
38. 2024-11-06
    price $329,000
39. 2024-08-29
    price $335,000
40. 2024-08-29
    price $335,000
41. 2024-07-25
    price $339,900
42. 2024-07-25
    price $339,900
43. 2024-07-12
    listed $349,900 Active
44. 1994-12-06
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,045 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,980 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$935/yr (+$78/mo · 89.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$1,045
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,707
• − Management: −$1,707
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$10,149
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,436
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowflake Unified District (4391)
• NCES district ID: 0407820
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,767
• Composite: 45.91/100
• National rank: #2545
• State rank: #36 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Snowflake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #8817

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,975

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.31%
• Current HPI: 480.9577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2900.0% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $299,995 WMMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $299,995 ARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $309,995 ARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $309,995 WMMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $319,000 WMMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $319,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $299,000 WMMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $299,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $300,000 WMMLS
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $300,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $315,000 WMMLS
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $315,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $319,000 WMMLS
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $319,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-24 Price Changed $320,000 WMMLS
• 2024-12-24 Price Changed $320,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-06 Price Changed $325,000 WMMLS
• 2024-12-06 Price Changed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $329,000 WMMLS
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $329,000 ARMLS
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $335,000 WMMLS
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $335,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-25 Price Changed $339,900 WMMLS
• 2024-07-25 Price Changed $339,900 ARMLS
• 2024-07-12 Listed $349,900 ARMLS
• 1994-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,045 · +87.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.