4053 Southern Trace Dr · College Station, TX 77845

$275,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 324 Days on market

Built 2006 6,577 sqft lot $175/sqft · 5% below area Est $291k · 5% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 4-Bedroom Home in Southern Trace – Minutes from Texas A&M! This well-maintained 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home is located in the desirable Southern Trace neighborhood, just 13 minutes from Texas A&M University and close to Tower Point shopping and dining. The spacious open-concept layout includes a large kitchen with granite countertops, a generous living and dining area, and newer carpet and paint throughout. Downstairs features a large bedroom and full bath, while upstairs offers a private primary suite, plus two additional bedrooms with walk-in closets and a shared bathroom. The fenced backyard offers privacy with convenient back-door access and a concrete parking pad that fits up to four vehicles. All appliances, blinds, and curtains convey, and the HOA handles front yard and common area maintenance. With a stocked community pond and low-maintenance living, this home is perfect as a primary residence or a great rental investment. Call today to schedule a showing!

Key facts

• Large kitchen
• Community pond
• Granite countertops

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FENCED BACKYARD
• CONCRETE PARKING PAD
• COMMUNITY POND
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in College Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in TX, #994 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-.
• College Station ISD (urban): math 58% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #113 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 324 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 91% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,742 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 324 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.35%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,688
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -5.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4028 Southern Trace Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0	1,568 (0%)	12mo	$275,000	$175	85
152 Walcourt Loop	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (+0%)	13mo	$295,000	$188	58
3920 Latinne Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (+2%)	9mo	$319,000	$200	54
103 Walcourt Loop	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (+6%)	14mo	$329,000	$199	50
3802 Dresden Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,716 (+9%)	12mo	$315,000	$184	49
305 Triumph	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,671 (+7%)	8mo	$325,900	$195	46
14107 Renee Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,745 (+11%)	5mo	$309,900	$178	41
3750 Essen Loop	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,547 (-1%)	20mo	$289,000	$187	40
14105 Renee Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,745 (+11%)	0mo	$380,000	$218	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-57,792
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-66,123
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77845

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 1168
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,337 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$462 /mo · $5,550/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,609

Max offer price $237,083

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
144 Roucourt Loop College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,250	$1.35	43d	1	0.30mi
114 Rugen Ln College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1627	$2,200	$1.35	43d	1	0.44mi
2545 Leyla Ln College Station, TX	4.0	3.0	1998	$2,950	$1.48	21d	1	0.55mi
2547 Leyla Ln College Station, TX	3.0	2.5	1718	$2,800	$1.63	21d	1	0.55mi
3709 Oldenburg Ln College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1338	$1,600	$1.20	43d	1	0.57mi
2506 Leyla Ln College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	1660	$2,300	$1.39	44d	1	0.62mi
438 William D Fitch Pkwy College Station, TX	3.0	2.5	1836	$2,900	$1.58	13d	1	0.63mi
2802 Silver Oak Dr College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,950	$1.44	43d	1	0.64mi
3904 Brownway Ct College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,650	$1.52	44d	1	0.65mi
3815 Snowdance Ct College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,100	$1.27	43d	1	0.81mi
1002 Crested Point Dr College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$2,200	$1.74	43d	1	0.81mi
3824 Springfield Dr Unit 1328078P College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1711	$5,011	$2.93	13d	1	0.86mi
916 Crested Point Dr College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1183	$2,000	$1.69	21d	1	0.88mi
156 Sunset Trl College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,999	$1.36	21d	1	0.89mi
1001 Fallbrook Loop College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,000	$1.41	43d	1	0.90mi
913 Delrey Dr College Station, TX	4.0	2.5	2103	$2,700	$1.28	13d	1	0.95mi
1029 Fallbrook Loop College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,000	$1.52	13d	1	1.00mi
1027 Fallbrook Loop College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,000	$1.28	44d	1	1.00mi
2515 Warkworth Ln College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1973	$720	$0.36	13d	1	1.07mi
117 Ridge Loop College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,499	$1.29	43d	1	1.08mi
2301 Norham Dr College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,250	$1.59	13d	1	1.12mi
903 Crepe Myrtle St College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1335	$1,800	$1.35	21d	1	1.20mi
193 Ridge Walk College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,199	$1.47	21d	1	1.33mi
136 Oak Leaf College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	1474	$2,499	$1.70	43d	1	1.39mi
922 Turtle Dove Trl College Station, TX	4.0	3.0	1764	$2,200	$1.25	43d	1	1.40mi
3211 Sergeant Dr College Station, TX	4.0	4.0	1618	$2,400	$1.48	44d	1	1.40mi
1202 Harrisonburg Ln College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	1915	$2,500	$1.31	43d	1	1.40mi
3608 Glenna Ct Unit 3610 College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,300	$0.94	21d	1	1.40mi
1001 Emerald Dove Ave College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	2180	$2,380	$1.09	43d	1	1.42mi
127 Oak Run College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	1685	$2,299	$1.36	43d	1	1.42mi
193 Oak Run College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,899	$1.50	21d	1	1.44mi
3210 Neuburg Ct College Station, TX	5.0	4.5	2186	$800	$0.37	43d	1	1.47mi
1407 Front Royal Dr College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$2,000	$1.35	43d	1	1.50mi
3314 Papa Bear Dr College Station, TX	3.0	3.5	1753	$1,800	$1.03	43d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 324 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 323 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 322 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 321 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 319 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 318 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 316 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 315 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 314 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 310 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 308 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 307 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 306 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 305 DOM
15. 2026-03-09
    historical $2,000
16. 2025-07-29
    listed $275,000 Active 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Beautiful 4-Bedroom Home in Southern Trace – Minutes from Texas A&M! This well-maintained 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home is located in the desirable Southern Trace neighborhood, just 13 minutes from Texas A&M University and close to Tower Point shopping and dining. The spacious open-concept layout includes a large kitchen with granite countertops, a generous living and dining area, and newer carpet and paint throughout. Downstairs features a large bedroom and full bath, while upstairs offers a private primary suite, plus two additional bedrooms with walk-in closets and a shared bathroom. The fenced backyard offers privacy with convenient back-door access and a concrete parking pad that fits up to four vehicles. All appliances, blinds, and curtains convey, and the HOA handles front yard and common area maintenance. With a stocked community pond and low-maintenance living, this home is perfect as a primary residence or a great rental investment. Call today to schedule a showing!

17. 2025-06-18
    price $2,000
18. 2025-03-09
    listed $2,200
19. 2024-07-05
    historical $2,200
20. 2024-06-06
    listed $2,200
21. 2023-04-03
    soldstatus Closed 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    ATTN: INVESTORS. Fully leased property until July 2024. Fantastic 4/3! Granite countertops in the kitchen, large rooms, newer carpet and paint. Wonderful neighborhood with lovely community pond, fully stocked for fishing. Thirteen minute drive to Texas A & M. Downstairs is a large bedroom and bath. Upstairs are 3 additional bedrooms, one with it's own bath and the other two share a large bath between both rooms. Fenced backyard and plenty of parking. Call today to view this great rental!

22. 2023-04-03
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    ATTN: INVESTORS. Fully leased property until July 2024. Fantastic 4/3! Granite countertops in the kitchen, large rooms, newer carpet and paint. Wonderful neighborhood with lovely community pond, fully stocked for fishing. Thirteen minute drive to Texas A & M. Downstairs is a large bedroom and bath. Upstairs are 3 additional bedrooms, one with it's own bath and the other two share a large bath between both rooms. Fenced backyard and plenty of parking. Call today to view this great rental!

23. 2023-03-17
    status Pending 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    ATTN: INVESTORS. Fully leased property until July 2024. Fantastic 4/3! Granite countertops in the kitchen, large rooms, newer carpet and paint. Wonderful neighborhood with lovely community pond, fully stocked for fishing. Thirteen minute drive to Texas A & M. Downstairs is a large bedroom and bath. Upstairs are 3 additional bedrooms, one with it's own bath and the other two share a large bath between both rooms. Fenced backyard and plenty of parking. Call today to view this great rental!

24. 2023-03-15
    listed $240,000 Active 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    ATTN: INVESTORS. Fully leased property until July 2024. Fantastic 4/3! Granite countertops in the kitchen, large rooms, newer carpet and paint. Wonderful neighborhood with lovely community pond, fully stocked for fishing. Thirteen minute drive to Texas A & M. Downstairs is a large bedroom and bath. Upstairs are 3 additional bedrooms, one with it's own bath and the other two share a large bath between both rooms. Fenced backyard and plenty of parking. Call today to view this great rental!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,550 · $462/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,550 · $462/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 91% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$5,550
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,244
• − Management: −$2,244
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$7,272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,745
• After-tax cash flow: $-830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: College Station ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807350
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,991
• Composite: 46.54/100
• National rank: #2428
• State rank: #113 of 826 in TX

Livability — College Station

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #994

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: College Station, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 131,628
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 76,764
• Household income: $88,851
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3329.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Asian 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.31%
• Current HPI: 175.9669
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Rental Removed $2,000 BCSRMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $2,000 BCSRMLS
• 2025-03-09 Listed for Rent $2,200 BCSRMLS
• 2024-07-05 Rental Removed $2,200 BCSRMLS
• 2024-06-06 Listed for Rent $2,200 BCSRMLS
• 2023-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-03 Sold (MLS) — BCSRMLS
• 2023-03-17 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2023-03-15 Listed $240,000 BCSRMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,550 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.