3133 Stafford Dr · Markham, IL 60428

$185,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,597 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1956 3,750 sqft lot Est $214k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Key facts

• 3,750 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1956

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing or immediate
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached concrete garage; 2 total parking spaces (2 garage spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story layout; Fee simple ownership; Rehab completed in 2023; Built between 61-70 years ago; Originally built before 1978
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 30 x 125; Lot under 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen (approx. 10 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level (approx. 12 x 14); Second bedroom on the main level (approx. 12 x 10); Third bedroom on the main level (approx. 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Estimated living area; 8 total rooms; Bonus room on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (approx. 10 x 6); In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#186 in IL, #3,539 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, employment D.
• Bremen Chsd 228 (suburban): math 15% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #468 of 620 in IL (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $185k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $179,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.74%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,998
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16224 Kedzie Ave	0.09mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,476 (-8%)	3mo	$127,000	$86	74
16230 Turner Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,563 (-2%)	8mo	$200,000	$128	73
16428 Turner Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,639 (+3%)	0mo	$242,500	$148	70
16431 Spaulding Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,500 (-6%)	2mo	$75,000	$50	69
16524 Sawyer Ave	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,501 (-6%)	0mo	$192,500	$128	68
16445 Turner Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+0%)	8mo	$230,000	$144	67
16303 Homan Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,694 (+6%)	7mo	$240,000	$142	61
15700 Turner Ave	0.75mi	4/1.0	1,536 (-4%)	3mo	$199,900	$130	56
2751 N Oxford Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,475 (-8%)	7mo	$208,000	$141	54
3417 W 161st St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,413 (-12%)	8mo	$77,500	$55	50
2711 Lancaster Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-6%)	6mo	$215,000	$143	49
16426 Homan Ave	0.40mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,419 (-11%)	6mo	$190,000	$134	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $119,464
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.52×
• Total profit: $337,586
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60428

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,284 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$466 /mo · $5,596/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,916

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $343	+0% $291	+5% $239	+10% $186
Rent	-10% $110	-5% $201	+0% $291	+5% $381	+10% $471
Rate	-1.0pp $384	-0.5pp $338	base $291	+0.5pp $243	+1.0pp $194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3824 168th Pl Country Club Hills, IL	3.0	2.0	1583	$2,400	$1.52	0d	1	1.10mi
16901 Orchard Ridge Ave Hazel Crest, IL	4.0	2.0	1406	$2,700	$1.92	0d	1	1.28mi
16751 Crane Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	0d	1	1.28mi
17306 Holmes Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,195	$1.43	5d	1	1.37mi
3900 171st St Country Club Hills, IL	3.0	1.0	1750	$2,250	$1.29	0d	1	1.44mi
3900 171st St Country Club Hills, IL	3.0	1.0	1750	$2,250	$1.29	9d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    historical
16. 2026-05-08
    listed $185,000 Active
17. 2026-03-26
    listed Active
18. 2023-05-21
    historical
19. 2011-12-31
    historical
20. 2011-07-15
    price Price Change
21. 2011-05-28
    price
22. 2011-05-23
    price Price Change
23. 2011-05-03
    price Price Change
24. 2009-05-04
    price
25. 2009-04-15
    price
26. 2008-08-15
    listed
27. 2008-03-24
    historical
28. 2008-02-17
    listed
29. 2002-03-08
    soldstatus $87,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,596 · $466/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,596 · $466/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$5,596
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,193
• − Management: −$2,193
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $759
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$182
• After-tax cash flow: $3,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bremen Chsd 228
• NCES district ID: 1707050
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 15.32/100
• National rank: #9327
• State rank: #468 of 620 in IL

Livability — Markham

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #186
• US rank: #3539

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Markham, IL
• City population: 10,980
• Population (ZIP): 10,980

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 17% White 11% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.63%
• Current HPI: 302.333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+112.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $185,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-21 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-31 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-15 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-28 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-23 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-03 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-04 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-15 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-15 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-24 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-17 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2023): $5,596 · +190.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.