502 W Paine Ave · Comanche, TX 76442

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 869 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1949 5,619 sqft lot $138/sqft · 13% above area Est $106k · 13% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated 3 bed 1 bath. New hvac, new paint, stainless stove, new water heater, and close to town! Come sit on this cute front porch and relax! Call for a showing!

Key facts

• 5,619 sq ft lot
• Built 1949
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Attached property
• Construction: Built in 1949
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.129 acres); Subdivision: Wrights

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Chandelier; One level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.1% in Comanche — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#763 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Comanche ISD (town): math 39% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #484 of 826 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Comanche El (math 44% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 639 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.47%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,119
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: 12.99%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
503 N Pearl St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	844 (-3%)	15mo	$35,000	$41	61
204 S Williams Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-3%)	14mo	$74,000	$88	56
307 E Grand Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (-10%)	3mo	$134,900	$172	52
600 N Pearl	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	984 (+13%)	14mo	$149,900	$152	42
601 E Walcott Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5	980 (+13%)	4mo	$36,000	$37	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $991
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $27,115
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76442

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,094/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $975

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $129,000 Active 161-char remark
16. 2021-02-03
    soldstatus
17. 2003-06-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,094 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,100/yr (+$92/mo · 100.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,094
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,326
• − Management: −$1,326
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $2,020
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$485
• After-tax cash flow: $3,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comanche ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814760
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,766
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #6024
• State rank: #484 of 826 in TX

Livability — Comanche

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #763
• US rank: #13962

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Comanche, TX
• City population: 7,082
• Population (ZIP): 7,082

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,214 people
• By 2030: 11,531 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 10,132 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 8,724 · -28.6%
• By 2075: 5,684 · -53.5%
• By 2100: 3,649 · -70.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 25% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.0) · D 12.7% · R 86.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.5pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -74.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.0 2020: R+71.0 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+62.3 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.00%
• Current HPI: 216.9759
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $119,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $124,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-04-30 Listed $129,000 NTREIS
• 2022-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,094 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.