3811 Cedar Spg · Midland, TX 79703

$259,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1953 7,144 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming older home situated on a corner lot! This cozy residence features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, making it ideal for families or those needing extra space. Enjoy the easy maintenance of vinyl flooring throughout, offering a fresh and updated feel. With its classic character and potential for personalization, this home is a must-see. Schedule a viewing today!

Key facts

• 7,144 sq ft lot
• Built 1953
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Disposal, Microwave, Electric Range, Electric Water Heater; Ceiling fan(s); Vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long El (math 36% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 667 students, 80% FRL); Alamo J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 865 students, 62% FRL); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 9896% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,466 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.40%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-43,409
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-56,753
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79703

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,285 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,984/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,177

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $159	+0% $85	+5% $11	+10% $-62
Rent	-10% $-95	-5% $-5	+0% $85	+5% $175	+10% $265
Rate	-1.0pp $216	-0.5pp $151	base $85	+0.5pp $18	+1.0pp $-51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3811 Cedar Spring Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	45d	1	0.02mi
4317 Tanner Dr Unit A Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2220	$2,650	$1.19	23d	1	0.39mi
3607 W Michigan Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,500	$1.63	23d	1	0.52mi
4409 Roosevelt Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,750	$1.42	46d	1	0.54mi
4515 Monty Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	45d	1	0.59mi
4603 Mercedes Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,199	$1.32	23d	1	0.65mi
4313 Storey Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	45d	1	0.74mi
4403 Crockett Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1065	$1,800	$1.69	23d	1	0.81mi
4405 Crockett Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	45d	1	0.82mi
4506 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	15d	1	0.85mi
3401 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,200	$1.44	45d	1	0.90mi
3401 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,200	$1.44	23d	1	0.90mi
4610 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,899	$1.60	23d	1	0.90mi
3105 Barkley Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,350	$1.36	15d	1	0.94mi
3100 Thomas Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,400	$1.85	45d	1	0.94mi
3311 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,700	$1.55	15d	1	0.95mi
2812 Mariana Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.5	1443	$1,750	$1.21	45d	1	1.00mi
2704 Delano Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,900	$1.56	46d	1	1.16mi
3900 Douglas Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1961	$2,800	$1.43	45d	1	1.19mi
5109 Graceland Dr Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,250	$1.65	45d	1	1.24mi
2928 W Louisiana Ave Unit 213 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	45d	1	1.25mi
5205 Blue Haven Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1539	$6,000	$3.90	45d	1	1.29mi
2805 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$2,400	$2.04	23d	1	1.32mi
4600 Andrews Hwy Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$2,590	$2.32	45d	5	1.37mi
909 Beal Pkwy Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,200	$1.32	23d	1	1.43mi
3619 Boyd Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,100	$1.24	15d	1	1.45mi
5202 Ric Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,975	$1.57	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $259,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $259,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 366-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   listed $259,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,984 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,756 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,773/yr (+$148/mo · 59.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$2,984
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,193
• − Management: −$2,193
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$3,373
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$810
• After-tax cash flow: $1,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,419
• Household income: $77,285
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 417.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 34% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.72%
• Current HPI: 224.6222
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed for Rent $2,600 PBBOR
• 2026-06-10 Listed $259,900 PBBOR
• 2026-05-07 Rental Removed $2,600 PBBOR
• 2026-04-21 Listed for Rent $2,600 PBBOR
• 2026-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $149,000 PBBOR
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $159,500 PBBOR
• 1997-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,984 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.