153 Phillips Rd 362 · Poplar Grove, AR 72374

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2002 0.41 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 1,800 square feet of living space on a generous 0.41-acre lot. Built in 2002, this property features a functional layout with large living areas, a dedicated dining space with chandelier, spacious kitchen with abundant cabinet storage, and a split-bedroom design that provides flexibility for a variety of living needs. The oversized primary suite offers plenty of room to unwind, while additional bedrooms can easily accommodate family, guests, or a home office setup. Outside, you will find a large yard with room to enjoy outdoor living, gardening, or future improvements. This home does need some updating and c

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Large yard
• Split-bedroom design

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• DEDICATED DINING SPACE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM DESIGN
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• ABUNDANT CABINET STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pads
• Utilities: Public water; Septic
• Home design: Metal/vinyl siding
• Construction: Composition roof; Crawl space foundation; Metal/vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Level lot; Gravel road access; No area amenities listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator stays
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central cooling
• Interior features: Carpet, wood, and tile floors; Microwave; Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator stays; Central heat; Central cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marvell School District (rural): math 14% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #243 of 245 in AR (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 94% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Phillips County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Phillips County population projected at -45% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,664 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.13%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $15,970
• Equity at exit: $46,027

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $55,352
• Equity at exit: $62,735

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72374

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,207 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $463/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $973

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $257	-5% $221	+0% $184	+5% $148	+10% $111
Rent	-10% $89	-5% $137	+0% $184	+5% $232	+10% $280
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $217	base $184	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $129,000 New Listing 978-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $463 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $826 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$362/yr (+$30/mo · 78.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$463
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,158
• − Management: −$1,158
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $76
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18
• After-tax cash flow: $2,195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marvell School District
• NCES district ID: 0509510
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $30,534
• Composite: 13.79/100
• National rank: #14475
• State rank: #243 of 245 in AR

Livability — Poplar Grove

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poplar Grove, AR
• Population (ZIP): 614

Population outlook (Phillips County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,786 people
• By 2030: 14,028 · -11.1%
• By 2040: 11,019 · -30.2%
• By 2050: 8,684 · -45.0%
• By 2075: 5,074 · -67.9%
• By 2100: 3,053 · -80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 18% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Phillips

• 2024 margin: D (+13.3) · D 55.8% · R 42.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: 29.0pp · 2024: 13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.3 2020: D+19.3 2016: D+26.8 2012: D+32.8 2008: D+29.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.29%
• Current HPI: 93.7603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $129,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $463 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.