6049 Lake St · Wolcott, NY 14590

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1867 1,742 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FIX ME UP!! Livable 3-bedroom Colonial in need of a cosmetic overhaul. Everything appears to work. Bring your paint brush & tool belt. Great Flip, rental or place to call home! NEWER Metal Roof! Freshly painted exterior! Newer Vinyl windows, except the bay window! Delayed showings begin 06/17 at 4 pm. Delayed negotiations until 06/22 at 1 pm.

Key facts

• Newer vinyl windows
• Newer metal roof
• 1,742 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEWER METAL ROOF
• NEWER VINYL WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: 2-story property; Resale condition; Pitched metal roof
• Construction: Wood siding; Blown-in insulation; Copper plumbing; Crawl space basement; Full basement
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Corner lot; Pie-shaped lot; Residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in galley kitchen
• Bedrooms: Convertible bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Galley kitchen; Storage; Convertible bedroom; Thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $655 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#460 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety D-.
• North Rose-Wolcott Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #514 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $40k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1867 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1867 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.40%
• DSCR: 4.13
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,480
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5934 Williams St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+8%)	8mo	$125,000	$91	64
5955 Jefferson St	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,346 (+5%)	19mo	$80,000	$59	60
12355 Ridge Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-8%)	21mo	$60,000	$51	46
5893 Draper St	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,440 (+12%)	16mo	$150,000	$104	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $35,328
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.58×
• Total profit: $84,716
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14590

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,241 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,187/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $411

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 348-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 343-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $39,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$1,187
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,191
• − Management: −$1,191
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,725
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,854
• After-tax cash flow: $6,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Rose-Wolcott Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616980
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,545
• Composite: 34.7/100
• National rank: #5140
• State rank: #514 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wolcott

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #8010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolcott, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,264

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.24%
• Current HPI: 225.0111
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+99.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $39,900 UNYREIS
• 1997-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,187 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.