1203 Jade St · Penitas, TX 78576

$219,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1998 0.52 ac lot $103/sqft · 22% below area Est $279k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1203 Jade St in Peñitas, Texas, a spacious property offering comfort, functionality, and room to grow. Situated on a generous half-acre lot, this 2,128 sq ft manufactured home features a well-designed layout with 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms. The recently renovated kitchen serves as the heart of the home, showcasing granite countertops, a large center island, and ample cabinet space, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy the flexibility of two dining areas and two separate living spaces, ideal for a variety of lifestyle needs. Additional highlights include like-new flooring throughout and a layout that provides both privacy and open gathering areas. Conveniently located with quick access to Expressway 83 and nearby shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Schedule your private showing today to explore all this property has to offer.

Key facts

• Two dining areas
• Half-acre lot
• Large center island

Tags

• HALF-ACRE LOT
• RECENTLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• TWO DINING AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-494 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (39.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (39.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#820 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: John F Kennedy El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 683 students, 90% FRL); Cesar Chavez Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 666 students, 90% FRL); La Joya H S (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,775 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 54% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,771 (39.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.66%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,000
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -21.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $36,334
• Equity at exit: $142,475

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $130,473
• Equity at exit: $262,623

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78576

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,329 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,649/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,954

Max offer price $131,771

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-370	-5% $-432	+0% $-494	+5% $-556	+10% $-618
Rent	-10% $-599	-5% $-546	+0% $-494	+5% $-441	+10% $-389
Rate	-1.0pp $-383	-0.5pp $-438	base $-494	+0.5pp $-551	+1.0pp $-608

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $219,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $219,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 70 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 69 DOM
18. 2026-03-22
    listed $225,000 Active 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    Welcome to 1203 Jade St in Peñitas, Texas, a spacious property offering comfort, functionality, and room to grow. Situated on a generous half-acre lot, this 2,128 sq ft manufactured home features a well-designed layout with 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms. The recently renovated kitchen serves as the heart of the home, showcasing granite countertops, a large center island, and ample cabinet space, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy the flexibility of two dining areas and two separate living spaces, ideal for a variety of lifestyle needs. Additional highlights include like-new flooring throughout and a layout that provides both privacy and open gathering areas. Conveniently located with quick access to Expressway 83 and nearby shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Schedule your private showing today to explore all this property has to offer.

19. 2025-02-21
    soldstatus
20. 2024-02-02
    status Pending
21. 2023-10-28
    price $188,000
22. 2023-09-08
    listed $189,000 Active
23. 2023-07-05
    soldstatus
24. 2023-07-03
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2023-07-01
    status Pending
26. 2023-06-25
    historical Option
27. 2023-06-21
    status Active
28. 2023-06-19
    status Pending
29. 2023-06-08
    historical Option
30. 2023-06-05
    listed $125,000 Active
31. 2019-12-12
    soldstatus
32. 2019-12-06
    soldstatus Sold
33. 2019-10-31
    status Pending
34. 2019-10-15
    listed $70,000 Active
35. 2019-10-15
    historical Withdrawn
36. 2019-09-28
    price $70,000
37. 2019-09-28
    status Active
38. 2019-08-21
    status Pending
39. 2019-06-18
    price $75,000
40. 2019-06-18
    status Active
41. 2019-03-29
    status Pending
42. 2019-03-04
    historical Option
43. 2019-02-18
    status Active
44. 2019-01-24
    status Pending
45. 2019-01-23
    historical Option
46. 2018-12-22
    listed $85,000 Active
47. 2004-02-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,649 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,008 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: +$359/yr (+$30/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 95% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,649
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,276
• − Management: −$1,276
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$9,985
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,396
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,529/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Penitas

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #820
• US rank: #14866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Penitas, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,902

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 99% Two or more races 71%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 97%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 4% English-only · Spanish 96%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.35%
• Current HPI: 238.1571
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+164.7% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Listed $225,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-02-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-02-02 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-10-28 Price Changed $188,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-09-08 Listed $189,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-03 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-07-01 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-06-25 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-06-21 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-06-19 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-06-08 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-06-05 Listed $125,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2019-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-06 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-10-31 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-10-15 Delisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-10-15 Listed $70,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2019-09-28 Price Changed $70,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2019-09-28 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-08-21 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-06-18 Price Changed $75,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2019-06-18 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-03-29 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-03-04 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-02-18 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-01-24 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-01-23 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2018-12-22 Listed $85,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2004-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,649 · +33.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.