669 Holly Trail East 304q Trl · Holly Lake Ranch, TX 75765

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,438 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1979 $129/sqft · 31% below area Est $269k · 31% under $182/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Priced to sell, well below market value means built-in equity AND seller will pay $7,500 initiation fee!!! A rarity and a real beauty at an unbelievable price . Chic best describes this townhome. Fully and elegantly furnished, this fabulously remodeled unit is move-in ready. From linens, pots and pans to paper products you need only to bring your personal possessions! Top to bottom, inside and out the entire home has been remodeled and updated. Enter and be prepared to be stunned. Open floor plan with hardwood floors in living and dining rooms. Kitchen quartz countertops set against metallic silver tile wall with glass shelf and stainless-steel sink, and faucet makes for a striking kitchen

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Quartz countertops
• Remodeled unit

Tags

• REMODELED UNIT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN MASTER SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $182 monthly fee; Gated community; Community golf course; Community pool; Tennis courts

Exterior

• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Townhouse; 2 stories
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Barbecue; Covered patio/porch; Lakefront on Greenbriar Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; Gas log fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-421/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Holly Lake Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Harmony ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #224 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 313 students, 62% FRL); Harmony J H (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 258 students, 46% FRL); Harmony H S (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 282 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $171,661 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,210
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -31.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
467 Bent Horseshoe Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,383 (-4%)	22mo	$219,500	$159	53
264 Peaceful Valley Trl	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,648 (+15%)	18mo	$219,000	$133	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $21,093
• Equity at exit: $84,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $77,211
• Equity at exit: $130,536

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,943/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$182
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,761

Max offer price $178,803

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $182 · $2,184/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 1681-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $185,000 Active 1681-char remark
3. 2025-09-24
   soldstatus
4. 2022-04-25
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,943 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,442/yr (+$120/mo · 74.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,943
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,648
• − Management: −$1,648
• − HOA: −$2,184
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,494
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$838
• After-tax cash flow: $418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harmony ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822560
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,303
• Composite: 40.47/100
• National rank: #3721
• State rank: #224 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holly Lake Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly Lake Ranch, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,195

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2026-05-18 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-05-11 Listed $185,000 GTAR
• 2025-09-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,943 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.