18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 83 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$125,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 206 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1976 Good condition $82/sqft · 40% below area Est $210k · 40% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.3

Listing remarks MLS

Live the life you've been waiting for in skyline Ranch Country Club, a sought-after 55+ gated community where comfort meets active living. Surrounded by scenic beauty & thoughtfully designed amenities, this community offers residents a sparkling pool, spa, inviting clubhouse, fitness center and best of all Free golf on a nine-hole executive SCGA golf course perfect for daily play. This beautifully maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bath home has been thoughtfully upgraded with over $30k in improvements over the last couple years. Upgrades include new roof, energy efficient vinyl windows and slider, updated AC system and the home has been recently re-leveled for added peace of mind. One of the home's most exceptional features is it's private access directly to Hole One of the golf course, a rare and coveted benefit for golf enthusiasts. The exquisite backyard setting brings nature right to your porch, creating the perfect space to relax, unwind & entertain. Experience comfort, convenience, and an active lifestyle all in one beautiful home.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fitness center
• Inviting clubhouse

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• INVITING CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER
• NEW ROOF
• ENERGY EFFICIENT VINYL WINDOWS
• UPDATED AC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $126k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $126k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Valley Center Primary (526 students, 48% FRL); Valley Center Middle (math 11% / reading 31%, grade F, #408 of 498 statewide, top 82%, 756 students, 41% FRL); Valley Center High (math 24% / reading 60%, grade F, #472 of 1,170 statewide, top 42%, 1,181 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 218 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $868 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $126k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.05%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,000
• List price: $125,500
• Delta: -40.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #129	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (0%)	2mo	$60,000	$39	99
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 176 Lot 176	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	1mo	$155,000	$108	89
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,536 (0%)	11mo	$267,500	$174	85
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 158	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,660 (+8%)	2mo	$169,000	$102	85
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 121 Lot 121	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-9%)	1mo	$80,000	$57	84
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-0%)	13mo	$149,000	$97	83
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,530 (-0%)	13mo	$115,000	$75	83
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+2%)	15mo	$100,000	$64	80
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 105	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	16mo	$89,500	$62	77
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #144	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	16mo	$170,000	$101	71
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 10	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,306 (-15%)	12mo	$255,000	$195	65
18218 Paradise Mtn Rd #59	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	6mo	$249,900	$149	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $52,531
• Equity at exit: $18,712

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $139,677
• Equity at exit: $10,851

Cash invested: $35,140 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.2 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $177,000 ($121/sqft)
• Median days on market: 145 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,545 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$658
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$157 /mo · $1,882/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $1,143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,098

Max offer price $125,500

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,230	-5% $1,187	+0% $1,143	+5% $1,100	+10% $1,057
Rent	-10% $942	-5% $1,043	+0% $1,143	+5% $1,244	+10% $1,345
Rate	-1.0pp $1,207	-0.5pp $1,175	base $1,143	+0.5pp $1,111	+1.0pp $1,078

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,375
• Closing costs: $3,765
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19286 Paradise Mountain Rd Valley Center, CA	3.0	2.0	1700	$4,145	$2.44	0d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $125,500 Active 206 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $125,500 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $125,500 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $125,500 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $125,500 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $125,500 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $125,500 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $125,500 Active 199 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $125,500 Active 198 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $125,500 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $125,500 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $125,500 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $125,500 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $125,500 Active 188 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $125,500 Active 187 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $125,500 Active 186 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $125,500 Active 183 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $125,500 Active 182 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $125,500 Active 181 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $125,500 Active 180 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $125,500 Active 179 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $125,500 Active 178 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $125,500 Active 177 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $125,500 Active 176 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $125,500 Active 175 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $125,500 Active 174 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $125,500 Active 173 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $125,500 Active 172 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $125,500 Active 171 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $125,500 Active 170 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $125,500 Active 169 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $125,500 Active 168 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $125,500 Active 167 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $125,500 Active 166 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $125,500 Active 165 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $125,500 Active 164 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $125,500 Active 163 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $125,500 Active 162 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $125,500 Active 161 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $125,500 Active 160 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $125,500 Active 158 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $125,500 Active 157 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $125,500 Active 156 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $125,500 Active 155 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $125,500 Active 152 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $125,500 Active 151 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $125,500 Active 150 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $125,500 Active 149 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $125,500 Active 147 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $125,500 Active 145 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,030
• − Property taxes: −$1,882
• − Insurance: −$628
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,443
• − Management: −$2,443
• − Depreciation: −$3,651
• Taxable income: $12,466
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,992
• After-tax cash flow: $10,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,680–$23,040 screening

The home is in good condition with no visible damage or wear. It has been thoughtfully upgraded with over $30k in improvements over the last couple years, including a new roof, energy-efficient windows, and an updated AC system. The home is move-in ready and has a good curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding and repainting the interior walls — Painting can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Updating the flooring in the living areas — Updating the flooring can make the home look more modern and appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with new fixtures and tiles — Upgrading the bathrooms can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can make the home more energy-efficient and comfortable for potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 29/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Valley Center Elementary F CA #1,162/1,571 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Valley Center Middle F CA #408/498 Nat'l #11,464/14,009 High Valley Center High F CA #472/1,170 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 52/100

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,678,185 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

---

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+53.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Listed $134,900 CRMLS
• 2024-09-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-09-07 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-09-05 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-08-07 Listed $222,900 CRMLS
• 2021-02-05 Sold (MLS) $80,000 CRMLS
• 2021-01-08 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-09-16 Listed $87,900 CRMLS