2907 S Santa Fe Ave #57 · San Marcos, CA 92069

$279,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 19 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located on a desirable corner lot in an all-ages family community in San Marcos. This move-in ready home features an open floor plan, luxury vinyl flooring, fresh paint, updated bathrooms, and a modern kitchen with white shaker cabinets, subway tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Enjoy a spacious covered porch, storage shed, covered parking, and a large side yard with potential for additional parking. Community amenities include a clubhouse, library, billiards room, game room, and community kitchen. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and freeway access. A great opportunity to own an affordable, turnkey home in San M

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Modern kitchen
• Corner lot

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• CORNER LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETS
• SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot density: 0–1 unit per acre
• Financial info: Assessments: buyer to verify; Manager approval required
• HOA & community: Land lease community; Land lease amount $1,006

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Springdale Estates park
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (12' x 60'); Mobile home remains on site; One story
• Exterior features: Community pool; Street lighting

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: All bedrooms on one level; Single-level home; Porch entry
• Laundry & utility: No laundry in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Recommended offer: $276k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.5% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#80 in CA, #3,074 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• San Marcos Unified (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 115 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,701 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.55%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,720
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
155 Las Flores Dr #36	0.20mi	2/2.0	800 (+11%)	24mo	$309,000	$386	52
1515 E Capalina Rd Spc 4	0.71mi	1/1.0 (-1)	676 (-6%)	10mo	$119,000	$176	39
1515 Capalina Rd Spc 10	0.74mi	2/1.0	818 (+14%)	18mo	$65,000	$79	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-25,275
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-14,870
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92069

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,990 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,198/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $621	-5% $524	+0% $428	+5% $331	+10% $234
Rent	-10% $191	-5% $309	+0% $428	+5% $546	+10% $664
Rate	-1.0pp $568	-0.5pp $499	base $428	+0.5pp $355	+1.0pp $281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
221 Smilax Rd Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$2,799	$3.27	3d	8	0.23mi
1257 Armorlite Dr San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	1226	$4,330	$3.53	0d	21	1.23mi
856 Heatherwood Ln Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$2,950	$3.75	3d	8	1.24mi
1982 Wellington Ln Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$3,044	$3.57	0d	3	1.28mi
1045 Armorlite Dr San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0–3.0	902	$3,398	$3.77	0d	17	1.37mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$4,198
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,870
• − Management: −$2,870
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable income: $717
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$172
• After-tax cash flow: $4,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home features an open floor plan, luxury vinyl flooring, fresh paint, updated bathrooms, and a modern kitchen. It is located in a desirable corner lot in an all-ages family community in San Marcos.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace air conditioning unit — Modernizing HVAC improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and energy savings

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace air conditioning unit — Modernizing HVAC improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and energy savings ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634880
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,752
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #3093
• State rank: #249 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #3074

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 100,940
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 47,335
• Household income: $96,771
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2399.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 36% Two or more races 20% Asian 11% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 32% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -522.69%
• Current HPI: 376.182
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.55%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $279,900 CRMLS