17711 Fuzzy Ln · Happy Valley, CA 96007

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1974

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CASH ONLY - Contractor Special on 4.5 Acres! Private country property tucked away at the end of the road featuring a 2-car garage, barn, and seasonal creek just minutes from town. This fixer-upper sits on approximately 4.5 usable acres and offers endless potential for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to create their dream rural retreat. Home needs significant work and is being sold as-is. Peaceful setting with plenty of space for animals, equipment, or future improvements. Rare opportunity to own acreage with privacy, outbuildings, and natural scenery at an affordable price.

Key facts

• Barn
• Usable acres
• Seasonal creek

Tags

• 4.5 ACRES
• PRIVATE COUNTRY PROPERTY
• 2-CAR GARAGE
• BARN
• SEASONAL CREEK
• USABLE ACRES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; 2-car carport; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home)
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation; Aluminum skirting; Other roof
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Level to rolling topography; County road frontage with asphalt road

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring; Wood-burning stove

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.4% in Happy Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Happy Valley Union Elementary (rural): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #414 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.08%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,528
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $10,081
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96007

• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,483 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,387/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,232

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,387 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,387 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,387
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,424
• − Management: −$1,424
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $499
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$120
• After-tax cash flow: $2,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Happy Valley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0616570
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,093
• Composite: 21.32/100
• National rank: #8375
• State rank: #414 of 517 in CA

Livability — Happy Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Happy Valley, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 24,768
• Household income: $61,357
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 758.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.70%
• Current HPI: 179.6613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $125,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,387 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.