Tulip Plan · Ranson, WV 25438

$279,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,576 sqft · SingleFamily · 376 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Key facts

• Built-in flex space
• Stunning kitchen
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• BUILT-IN FLEX SPACE
• STUNNING KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LVP FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $289,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Tulip); Located at 54 Sumter Ave, Ranson, WV 25438; Active listing
• Construction: New construction inventory (Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,576

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan is named Tulip (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $315,200.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in Ranson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#100 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jefferson County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #6 of 55 in WV (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: T A Lowery Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #191 of 377 statewide, top 56%, 522 students, 0% FRL); Wildwood Middle School (math 15% / reading 40%, grade F, #70 of 109 statewide, top 65%, 425 students, 0% FRL); Jefferson High School (math 30% / reading 62%, grade D-, #9 of 110 statewide, top 7%, 1,444 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 33% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,162 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 376 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,709 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 376 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.70%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $315,200
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
263 Ellery St	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,520 (-4%)	16mo	$375,000	$247	72
123 Hopkins	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,520 (-4%)	17mo	$350,000	$230	71
252 Ellery St	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,640 (+4%)	18mo	$419,990	$256	68
117 Park Ave E	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,588 (+1%)	20mo	$379,000	$239	63
995 N Mildred St	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (+5%)	10mo	$270,000	$163	62
305 E 11th Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-0%)	12mo	$309,900	$198	55
25 Stayman Dr	0.36mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,638 (+4%)	15mo	$289,000	$176	55
40 Stiles Way	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-15%)	12mo	$300,000	$223	54
44 Orchard Dr	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,651 (+5%)	16mo	$275,000	$167	50
211 E 11th Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-3%)	14mo	$307,000	$200	46
29 Cider Ln	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,360 (-14%)	24mo	$270,000	$199	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $145,021
• Equity at exit: $283,957

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.08×
• Total profit: $448,111
• Equity at exit: $612,364

Cash invested: $88,256 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25438

• Home prices YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,227 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,653
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,728/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,757

Max offer price $254,588

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-201	-5% $-310	+0% $-419	+5% $-528	+10% $-637
Rent	-10% $-595	-5% $-507	+0% $-419	+5% $-331	+10% $-243
Rate	-1.0pp $-260	-0.5pp $-339	base $-419	+0.5pp $-501	+1.0pp $-584

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,800
• Closing costs: $9,456
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
406 Freeman St Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,600	$1.36	5d	1	0.20mi
415 17th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1521	$1,990	$1.31	26d	1	0.53mi
405 17th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1725	$2,150	$1.25	7d	1	0.53mi
1308 Cedar Valley Rd Unit 1308 Ranson, WV	2.0	4.0	1333	$1,899	$1.42	26d	1	0.54mi
1344 Red Clover Ln Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1723	$2,099	$1.22	15d	1	0.55mi
452 18th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1726	$1,895	$1.10	1d	1	0.58mi
1130 Stallion St Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,900	$1.15	7d	1	0.73mi
1247 Mare St Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1985	$2,080	$1.05	26d	1	0.84mi
214 Coolidge Ave Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1387	$1,925	$1.39	20d	1	1.26mi
112 Cecily Way Unit 112 Ranson, WV	3.0	4.0	1905	$2,100	$1.10	7d	1	1.27mi
300 Presidents Pointe Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1731	$2,200	$1.27	20d	1	1.27mi
163 Anthem St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1386	$2,500	$1.80	6d	1	1.29mi
36 Anthem St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1397	$1,800	$1.29	26d	1	1.29mi
99 Anthem St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1387	$2,000	$1.44	26d	1	1.30mi
51 Cecily Way Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1998	$2,000	$1.00	15d	1	1.33mi
34 Coolidge Ave Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1397	$1,850	$1.32	4d	1	1.34mi
495 National St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1330	$1,850	$1.39	26d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,990 Active 376 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 373 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 372 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 371 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 370 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 368 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $279,990 Active 367 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 364 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 363 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,990 Active 362 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 359 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 358 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 357 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 356 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 355 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,656
• − Property taxes: −$4,728
• − Insurance: −$1,576
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,138
• − Management: −$2,138
• − Depreciation: −$9,169
• Taxable loss: −$10,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,563
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400570
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,038
• Composite: 33.98/100
• National rank: #5322
• State rank: #6 of 55 in WV

Livability — Ranson

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #11255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ranson, WV
• County: Jefferson County · 28,403 people
• City population: 7,330
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 7,330
• Household income: $81,875
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,715 people
• By 2030: 64,052 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 67,713 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 69,843 · +13.2%
• By 2075: 72,679 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 71,872 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+15.8) · D 41.0% · R 56.8% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -15.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.8 2020: R+10.5 2016: R+15.3 2012: R+4.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.87%
• Current HPI: 352.707
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0