556 Gotzian St · St. Paul, MN 55106

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1927 4,573 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming stucco are and a half story located in a quiet neighborhood. Features include a large open kitchen, formal dining room, new carpet, and a spacious remodeled lower level.

Key facts

• Curved archways
• Three-quarter bath
• Newer water heater

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CURVED ARCHWAYS
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• THREE-QUARTER BATH
• NEWER WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Standard rental license in place (property has a rental license)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached 1-car garage (15 x 21); Garage approximately 362 sq ft
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; 100 amp electrical service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential property; One-and-a-half story layout; Block foundation
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Light tree coverage on the lot; Road frontage on a city street; public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main floor; 1 three-quarter bathroom in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Kitchen window; Main floor primary bedroom; Natural woodwork; Informal dining area / kitchen-dining combination / living-dining arrangement; Full, partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 34y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $185k implies a 358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $169,269 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.84%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,001
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $32,447
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55106

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $972/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,428

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $185,000 Active
3. 2024-09-07
   historical $1,560
4. 2024-09-01
   listed $1,560
5. 2011-08-10
   soldstatus $40,405 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   Charming stucco are and a half story located in a quiet neighborhood. Features include a large open kitchen, formal dining room, new carpet, and a spacious remodeled lower level.

6. 2011-07-15
   historical 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   Charming stucco are and a half story located in a quiet neighborhood. Features include a large open kitchen, formal dining room, new carpet, and a spacious remodeled lower level.

7. 2011-04-19
   listed $49,900 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   Charming stucco are and a half story located in a quiet neighborhood. Features include a large open kitchen, formal dining room, new carpet, and a spacious remodeled lower level.

8. 1998-04-14
   soldstatus $56,000
9. 1997-12-01
   soldstatus $56,000
10. 1997-08-18
    historical
11. 1997-08-04
    listed $52,000
12. 1997-08-01
    historical
13. 1997-07-01
    listed $58,000
14. 1993-01-08
    historical
15. 1992-08-09
    listed $52,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $972 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,522 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$550/yr (+$46/mo · 56.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$972
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$579
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$139
• After-tax cash flow: $2,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 56,708
• Household income: $70,187
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2046.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 34% White 32% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 27% Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -239.48%
• Current HPI: 288.7205
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.26%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+249.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $185,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-07 Rental Removed $1,560 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-01 Listed for Rent $1,560 APPFOLIO
• 2011-08-10 Sold (MLS) $40,405 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-19 Listed $49,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-01 Sold (MLS) $56,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-08-18 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-08-04 Listed $52,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-08-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-07-01 Listed $58,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-01-08 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-08-09 Listed $52,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $972 · -40.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.