315 Vineyard St · Hot Springs, AR 71913

$117,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1940 0.31 ac lot $98/sqft · at area comps Est $120k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 315 Vineyard St in beautiful Hot Springs! This inviting property offers comfort, convenience, and opportunity all in one. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home features a practical layout and a spacious yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy close proximity to Oaklawn Resort, just a short drive away. Whether you’re looking for your next home or an investment opportunity, this one is worth a look! Selling ''as is''.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $117k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hot Springs School District (urban): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #195 of 238 in AR (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 986 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $809 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,064 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.44%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,602
• List price: $117,000
• Delta: -2.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
290 Woodlawn Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0	1,256 (+5%)	1mo	$70,000	$56	86
302 Jerome St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,193 (-1%)	5mo	$65,000	$54	84
514 Oaklawn St	0.33mi	2/1.0	1,209 (+1%)	10mo	$135,000	$112	76
409 Henderson St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,156 (-4%)	4mo	$155,000	$134	72
200 Jerome St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,273 (+6%)	0mo	$180,000	$141	71
310 Oaklawn St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (-4%)	6mo	$78,000	$67	68
1616 Seventh St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,276 (+6%)	8mo	$63,900	$50	67
400 Henderson St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,302 (+8%)	4mo	$125,000	$96	63
1105 Richard St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (-5%)	4mo	$127,000	$111	55
221 Oaklawn	0.27mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,340 (+12%)	8mo	$65,000	$49	54
101 Hood Pl	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (-9%)	1mo	$149,000	$136	46
109 Hallmark St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,309 (+9%)	7mo	$98,000	$75	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,641
• Equity at exit: $17,445

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $24,250
• Equity at exit: $10,116

Cash invested: $32,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,091 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $608/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $902

Max offer price $117,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,250
• Closing costs: $3,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Alpine St Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	44d	1	0.23mi
600 Higdon Ferry Rd #300 Hot Springs, AR	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,250	$0.90	44d	1	0.27mi
410 Oakwood Ave Hot Springs, AR	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$999	$1.00	44d	6	0.41mi
210 Carl Dr Unit B6 Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	44d	1	0.98mi
150 Sun St Hot Springs National Park, AR	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,150	$1.03	44d	1	1.08mi
104 Selma St Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	1.0	832	$950	$1.14	44d	1	1.12mi
109 Alcorn St Unit A Hot Springs, AR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,295	$1.52	44d	1	1.18mi
1036 Garland Ave Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,150	$0.96	44d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $117,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $117,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $117,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $117,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $117,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $117,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $117,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $117,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $117,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $117,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $117,000 Back on Market 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $117,000 Back on Market 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $117,000 Back on Market 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 676-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    status $117,000 Back on Market 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $117,000 Take Backups 44 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $117,000 Take Backups 43 DOM
19. 2026-05-19
    status Pending 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Welcome to 315 Vineyard St in beautiful Hot Springs! This inviting property offers comfort, convenience, and opportunity all in one. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home features a practical layout and a spacious yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy close proximity to Oaklawn Resort, just a short drive away. Whether you’re looking for your next home or an investment opportunity, this one is worth a look! Selling ''as is''.

20. 2026-05-19
    historical Take Backups 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Welcome to 315 Vineyard St in beautiful Hot Springs! This inviting property offers comfort, convenience, and opportunity all in one. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home features a practical layout and a spacious yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy close proximity to Oaklawn Resort, just a short drive away. Whether you’re looking for your next home or an investment opportunity, this one is worth a look! Selling ''as is''.

21. 2026-05-16
    price $117,000 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Welcome to 315 Vineyard St in beautiful Hot Springs! This inviting property offers comfort, convenience, and opportunity all in one. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home features a practical layout and a spacious yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy close proximity to Oaklawn Resort, just a short drive away. Whether you’re looking for your next home or an investment opportunity, this one is worth a look! Selling ''as is''.

22. 2026-05-16
    price $117,000 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Welcome to 315 Vineyard St in beautiful Hot Springs! This inviting property offers comfort, convenience, and opportunity all in one. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home features a practical layout and a spacious yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy close proximity to Oaklawn Resort, just a short drive away. Whether you’re looking for your next home or an investment opportunity, this one is worth a look! Selling ''as is''.

23. 2026-04-17
    listed $139,800 Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Welcome to 315 Vineyard St in beautiful Hot Springs! This inviting property offers comfort, convenience, and opportunity all in one. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home features a practical layout and a spacious yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy close proximity to Oaklawn Resort, just a short drive away. Whether you’re looking for your next home or an investment opportunity, this one is worth a look! Selling ''as is''.

24. 2026-04-17
    listed $139,800 New Listing 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Welcome to 315 Vineyard St in beautiful Hot Springs! This inviting property offers comfort, convenience, and opportunity all in one. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home features a practical layout and a spacious yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy close proximity to Oaklawn Resort, just a short drive away. Whether you’re looking for your next home or an investment opportunity, this one is worth a look! Selling ''as is''.

25. 2026-02-13
    historical
26. 2026-02-06
    price $149,900
27. 2026-02-05
    price $149,900
28. 2025-12-03
    price $154,900
29. 2025-12-02
    price $154,900
30. 2025-10-07
    price $159,900
31. 2025-10-06
    price $159,900
32. 2025-09-06
    price $164,900
33. 2025-09-05
    price $164,900
34. 2025-08-12
    listed $169,000 Active
35. 2025-08-12
    listed $169,000 New Listing
36. 2023-09-21
    soldstatus $155,000 Closed
37. 2023-09-07
    historical Active Under Contract
38. 2023-08-18
    status Active
39. 2023-08-18
    status Pending
40. 2023-07-19
    listed $159,000 Active
41. 2022-02-28
    soldstatus $163,500
42. 2004-04-09
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $608 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $749 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 23.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,554
• − Property taxes: −$608
• − Insurance: −$585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,047
• − Management: −$1,047
• − Depreciation: −$3,404
• Taxable loss: −$157
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$38
• After-tax cash flow: $1,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507890
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $28,817
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8746
• State rank: #195 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+735.7% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HSBOR
• 2026-05-19 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $117,000 CARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $117,000 HSBOR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $139,800 CARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $139,800 HSBOR
• 2026-02-13 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $149,900 CARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $149,900 HSBOR
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $154,900 CARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $154,900 HSBOR
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $159,900 CARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $159,900 HSBOR
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $164,900 CARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $164,900 HSBOR
• 2025-08-12 Listed $169,000 CARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $169,000 HSBOR
• 2023-09-21 Sold (MLS) $155,000 HSBOR
• 2023-09-07 Contingent — HSBOR
• 2023-08-18 Relisted — HSBOR
• 2023-08-18 Pending — HSBOR
• 2023-07-19 Listed $159,000 HSBOR
• 2022-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $163,500 Public Records
• 2004-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $608 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.