3735 Shetland Ln · Arcata, CA 95521

$121,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured · 26 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This very nice 2 bedroom 1 bath modular has been tastefully updated by Lawrence Construction. This home features custom maple cabinets, granite counters and tile backsplash, new dishwasher, new range, microwave, Shaw luxury waterproof laminate flooring, new carpet and new windows, new blinds, new doors. Beautiful tile shower. Led lighting throughout. Fresh paint inside and out. This is a must see. This is a 55 and older park.

Key facts

• Led lighting
• Newer appliances
• Custom tile shower

Tags

• CUSTOM MAPLE CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM TILE SHOWER
• LED LIGHTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected or available; 220V in laundry
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Wood siding; Concrete construction; Other roof type; Manufactured home make: Lamplighter; Located in Lazy J Ranch park
• Exterior features: Deck; Level lot; Asphalt/Concrete/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $121k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $254 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $121k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 1.9% in Arcata — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#275 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: housing C-, crime D-, commute F.
• Pacific Union Elementary (town): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #560 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $837 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,185 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.35%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,380
• Equity at exit: $18,041

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $60,132
• Equity at exit: $10,462

Cash invested: $33,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95521

• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$635
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$151 /mo · $1,815/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,143

Max offer price $121,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $338	-5% $296	+0% $254	+5% $212	+10% $171
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $196	+0% $254	+5% $312	+10% $370
Rate	-1.0pp $315	-0.5pp $285	base $254	+0.5pp $223	+1.0pp $191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,250
• Closing costs: $3,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $121,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $121,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $121,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $121,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   remarks 653-char remark
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $121,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $121,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $121,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $121,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $121,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $121,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $121,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $121,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $121,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $121,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $121,000 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $121,000 Active 6 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $121,000 Active 5 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $121,000 Active 4 DOM
20. 2026-05-26
    listed $121,000 Active
21. 2026-03-12
    listed $125,000 Active
22. 2025-08-07
    soldstatus $119,900 Closed 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    This very nice 2 bedroom 1 bath modular has been tastefully updated by Lawrence Construction. This home features custom maple cabinets, granite counters and tile backsplash, new dishwasher, new range, microwave, Shaw luxury waterproof laminate flooring, new carpet and new windows, new blinds, new doors. Beautiful tile shower. Led lighting throughout. Fresh paint inside and out. This is a must see. This is a 55 and older park.

23. 2025-06-17
    price $119,900 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    This very nice 2 bedroom 1 bath modular has been tastefully updated by Lawrence Construction. This home features custom maple cabinets, granite counters and tile backsplash, new dishwasher, new range, microwave, Shaw luxury waterproof laminate flooring, new carpet and new windows, new blinds, new doors. Beautiful tile shower. Led lighting throughout. Fresh paint inside and out. This is a must see. This is a 55 and older park.

24. 2025-05-27
    price $129,900 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    This very nice 2 bedroom 1 bath modular has been tastefully updated by Lawrence Construction. This home features custom maple cabinets, granite counters and tile backsplash, new dishwasher, new range, microwave, Shaw luxury waterproof laminate flooring, new carpet and new windows, new blinds, new doors. Beautiful tile shower. Led lighting throughout. Fresh paint inside and out. This is a must see. This is a 55 and older park.

25. 2025-04-29
    price $139,900 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    This very nice 2 bedroom 1 bath modular has been tastefully updated by Lawrence Construction. This home features custom maple cabinets, granite counters and tile backsplash, new dishwasher, new range, microwave, Shaw luxury waterproof laminate flooring, new carpet and new windows, new blinds, new doors. Beautiful tile shower. Led lighting throughout. Fresh paint inside and out. This is a must see. This is a 55 and older park.

26. 2025-04-17
    listed $149,900 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    This very nice 2 bedroom 1 bath modular has been tastefully updated by Lawrence Construction. This home features custom maple cabinets, granite counters and tile backsplash, new dishwasher, new range, microwave, Shaw luxury waterproof laminate flooring, new carpet and new windows, new blinds, new doors. Beautiful tile shower. Led lighting throughout. Fresh paint inside and out. This is a must see. This is a 55 and older park.

27. 2014-10-17
    soldstatus $15,000
28. 2014-09-16
    listed $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥72°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,778
• − Property taxes: −$1,815
• − Insurance: −$1,402
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,406
• − Management: −$1,406
• − Depreciation: −$3,520
• Taxable income: $1,245
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$299
• After-tax cash flow: $2,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully updated and remodeled 2-bedroom, 1-bath modular home is move-in ready and meticulously refreshed from top to bottom. The home features custom maple cabinets, granite countertops, tile backsplash, and newer appliances. The exterior is well-maintained with fresh landscaping and curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pacific Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629430
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,146
• Composite: 41.08/100
• National rank: #7442
• State rank: #560 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Arcata

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #9258

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment F Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arcata, CA
• County: Humboldt County · 88,652 people
• City population: 21,980
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,980
• Household income: $53,114
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2139.0

Population outlook (Humboldt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,550 people
• By 2030: 134,798 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 132,222 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 130,850 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 128,656 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 120,238 · -11.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Russian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Humboldt

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 62.0% · R 33.6% · Other 4.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+33.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+26.2 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -373.51%
• Current HPI: 208.5938
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.08%
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+706.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $121,000 HAR
• 2026-03-12 Listed $125,000 HAR
• 2025-08-07 Sold (MLS) $119,900 HAR
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $119,900 HAR
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $129,900 HAR
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $139,900 HAR
• 2025-04-17 Listed $149,900 HAR
• 2014-10-17 Sold (MLS) $15,000 HAR
• 2014-09-16 Listed $15,000 HAR