2020 S Union Rd · Vineland, NJ 08361

$209,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,734 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1971 0.43 ac lot Est $345k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2020 S Union rd, Vineland! Situated on the corner of South Union Road and Dante Avenue in Vineland, this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath bi-level home offers the ideal combination of peaceful rural living and everyday convenience. Nestled on a spacious corner lot, the property provides plenty of outdoor space to enjoy gardening, entertaining, recreation, or simply relaxing in a quiet country-style setting. Inside, the home features a functional bi-level layout with comfortable living spaces and endless potential to make it your own. With a little updating and personal touch, this home can truly shine and become a wonderful place to call home. Enjoy the tranquility of a private sett

Key facts

• Easy access
• Private setting
• Outdoor space

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE SETTING
• FUNCTIONAL BI-LEVEL LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Front-entry attached garage (1 car); Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Natural gas heating and hot water; Septic system; Well water
• Home design: Detached home; Above-grade finished living space reported
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Lot dimensions approximately 150 x 125

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 half bathroom on a lower level
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.5% in Vineland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#363 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, crime F.
• Vineland Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #418 of 472 in NJ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $210k implies a 483% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,751 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.19%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $345,066
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2189 Berkeley Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,734 (0%)	7mo	$345,000	$199	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-14,614
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $12,470
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08361

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$332 /mo · $3,987/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $422	-5% $363	+0% $303	+5% $244	+10% $185
Rent	-10% $121	-5% $212	+0% $303	+5% $395	+10% $486
Rate	-1.0pp $409	-0.5pp $357	base $303	+0.5pp $249	+1.0pp $194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $209,900 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $209,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $209,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $209,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $209,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-05-20
    listed $209,900 Active
11. 2025-09-09
    listed Under Contract
12. 2025-09-09
    historical
13. 2025-09-01
    listed $214,900
14. 2008-11-20
    historical
15. 2008-10-20
    historical
16. 2008-05-20
    listed $209,950
17. 2008-05-20
    listed $209,950
18. 1984-10-26
    soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,987 · $332/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,607 · $384/mo
• Expected delta: +$620/yr (+$52/mo · 15.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$3,987
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,216
• − Management: −$2,216
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable income: $371
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$89
• After-tax cash flow: $3,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vineland Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416800
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $51,168
• Composite: 19.17/100
• National rank: #8819
• State rank: #418 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vineland

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #12180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vineland, NJ
• City population: 45,038
• Population (ZIP): 18,375

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,743 people
• By 2030: 150,373 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 146,881 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 142,653 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 129,468 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 107,456 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 20% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: D+6.0 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+23.1 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.80%
• Current HPI: 291.3404
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+483.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $209,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed — SJSRMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2025-09-01 Listed $214,900 SJSRMLS
• 2008-11-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-10-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-05-20 Listed $209,950 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-05-20 Listed $209,950 BRIGHT MLS
• 1984-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,987 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.