Eagle Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$350,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,271 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The two-story Eagle floor plan offers 2,271 square feet of thoughtfully designed, open-concept living space featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a versatile loft, and a 2-car garage. On the first floor, you'll find a welcoming foyer that flows into a spacious great room, dining area, and modern kitchen, plus a convenient half bath. Upstairs, enjoy a flexible loft space, three secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and laundry room. Your private primary suite is also located upstairs and includes a spacious bathroom with dual vanity sinks, a walk-in shower, and a generous walk-in closet. To top it off, the home includes a relaxing patio for seamless indoor/outdoor living-perfect for soaking up

Key facts

• Relaxing patio
• Modern kitchen
• Versatile loft

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• VERSATILE LOFT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• RELAXING PATIO
• INDOOR OUTDOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $350,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (total 2 parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property (plan-based new construction); Address: Parrish, FL 34219
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,271

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan: Eagle (new construction)

🏗️ New construction. The $350,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $515,063.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $351k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $312k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $311,522 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.14%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $515,063
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13239 Commons Ave	0.11mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,287 (+1%)	1mo	$385,999	$169	86
13215 Commons Ave	0.09mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,287 (+1%)	4mo	$379,999	$166	84
13427 Camelot Ct	0.08mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,516 (+11%)	0mo	$377,999	$150	69
13210 Rowhouse Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,400 (+6%)	2mo	$587,079	$245	68
13114 Empress Jewel Trl	0.40mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,215 (-2%)	10mo	$368,800	$167	64
13411 Commons Ave	0.19mi	4/3.5	2,582 (+14%)	3mo	$445,414	$173	62
13130 Empress Jewel Trl	0.40mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,389 (+5%)	10mo	$373,700	$156	60
13209 Sunset Sapphire Cir	0.53mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,389 (+5%)	4mo	$346,000	$145	58
14270 Sawmill St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (-10%)	6mo	$454,999	$221	53
14266 Sawmill St	0.42mi	4/3.5	2,600 (+14%)	3mo	$526,049	$202	50
12965 Shining Blue Nile Ln	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,584 (+14%)	9mo	$351,900	$136	42
13608 Sunset Sapphire Ct	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,935 (-15%)	9mo	$325,000	$168	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-162,506
• Equity at exit: $76,798

10-year hold

• IRR: -71.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.85×
• Total profit: $-266,685
• Equity at exit: $44,533

Cash invested: $144,218 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$644 /mo · $7,726/yr
• Insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $-1,098

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,506

Max offer price $356,114

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-743	-5% $-920	+0% $-1,098	+5% $-1,276	+10% $-1,454
Rent	-10% $-1,345	-5% $-1,222	+0% $-1,098	+5% $-975	+10% $-852
Rate	-1.0pp $-839	-0.5pp $-967	base $-1,098	+0.5pp $-1,232	+1.0pp $-1,368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $128,766
• Closing costs: $15,452
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	5d	1	0.29mi
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,800	$1.30	5d	1	0.32mi
12227 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	3326	$3,500	$1.05	5d	1	0.68mi
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2584	$3,000	$1.16	18d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $350,999 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,999 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,999 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,999 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,999 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,999 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,999 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $350,999 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,999 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $350,999 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $350,999 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,999 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,999 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,999 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,999 Active 85 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,852
• − Property taxes: −$7,726
• − Insurance: −$2,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,991
• − Management: −$2,991
• − Depreciation: −$14,984
• Taxable loss: −$22,735
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,456
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,725/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value through exterior painting and smart home updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value
• Resale Update flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale Update flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B