Creekside Plan · Freeport, FL 32439

$357,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,107 sqft · SingleFamily · 169 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Creekside floorplan, at Ashton Park Phase III, our new home community in Freeport, Florida. Featuring 2,107 square feet, this beautiful single-story home offers 5-bedrooms with 3-bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and a seamless open layout. When entering the home, you will have easy access from the entry hall to the first two bedrooms and guest bathroom. Continuing through the hallway you will find a large open concept living area. The great room blends seamlessly into the kitchen, dining space, and living room.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Creekside floorplan
• Open layout

Tags

• CREEKSIDE FLOORPLAN
• OPEN LAYOUT
• LARGE OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• ABUNDANT STORAGE SPACE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $357,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $392,309.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $358k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $524 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $358k).
• Recommended offer: $315k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.9% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#520 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Emerald Coast Middle School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade A-, #77 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 24% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 1545 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,095/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,952 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.72%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,309
• List price: $357,900
• Delta: -8.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41 Foxtrail Run	0.08mi	5/3.0	2,107 (0%)	2mo	$341,404	$162	95
69 Foxtrail Run	0.11mi	5/3.0	2,107 (0%)	2mo	$347,000	$165	93
50 Foxtrail Run	0.05mi	5/3.0	2,167 (+3%)	1mo	$337,457	$156	92
68 Foxtrail Run	0.09mi	5/3.0	2,167 (+3%)	0mo	$362,900	$167	91
16 Foxtrail Run	0.12mi	5/3.0	2,167 (+3%)	3mo	$382,106	$176	87
59 Foxtrail Run	0.12mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,109 (+0%)	1mo	$330,317	$157	84
24 Foxtrail Run	0.11mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,415 (+15%)	1mo	$355,359	$147	64
37 Free Point Cir Unit Homesite B4	0.68mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,142 (+2%)	1mo	$375,000	$175	59
57 Village Ct	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,928 (-8%)	2mo	$518,000	$269	59
18 Free Point Cir Unit Homesite B8	0.63mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-5%)	2mo	$339,990	$170	51
223 Partridge Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,928 (-8%)	2mo	$390,000	$202	46
187 Bent Oak Dr Unit Homesite A11	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,845 (-12%)	2mo	$334,985	$182	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-36,632
• Equity at exit: $58,495

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-14,468
• Equity at exit: $33,920

Cash invested: $109,847 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.7 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $357,900 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 121 d
• This list price: 48% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32439

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 1545
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,057
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$490 /mo · $5,885/yr
• Insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$860
• Net cashflow: $524

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,432

Max offer price $392,309

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $795	-5% $659	+0% $524	+5% $388	+10% $253
Rent	-10% $200	-5% $362	+0% $524	+5% $686	+10% $847
Rate	-1.0pp $721	-0.5pp $624	base $524	+0.5pp $422	+1.0pp $319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,077
• Closing costs: $11,769
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
157 Bent Oak Dr Freeport, FL	5.0	3.0	2142	$4,500	$2.10	10d	1	0.65mi
157 Bent Oak Dr Freeport, FL	5.0	3.0	2142	$4,500	$2.10	51d	1	0.65mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address listed as Creekside Plan, Freeport, FL 32439Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $379,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garageSpace for 2 vehicles total
• Home design: Creekside plan (new construction plan)Single-family home (plan-based)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,107

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-based)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $357,900 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $357,900 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $357,900 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $357,900 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $357,900 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $357,900 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $357,900 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $357,900 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $357,900 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $357,900 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $357,900 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $357,900 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $357,900 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $357,900 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $357,900 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    price $357,900 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $370,900 Active 153 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $370,900 Active 152 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $370,900 Active 151 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $370,900 Active 150 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $370,900 Active 149 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $370,900 Active 148 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $370,900 Active 147 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $370,900 Active 146 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $370,900 Active 145 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $370,900 Active 144 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    pricedays on market $370,900 Active 143 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $367,900 Active 142 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $367,900 Active 141 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $367,900 Active 140 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $367,900 Active 139 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $367,900 Active 138 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $367,900 Active 137 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $367,900 Active 136 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $367,900 Active 135 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $367,900 Active 134 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $367,900 Active 133 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $367,900 Active 132 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $367,900 Active 131 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $367,900 Active 130 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $367,900 Active 129 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $367,900 Active 127 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $367,900 Active 126 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    price $367,900 Active 125 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $364,900 Active 125 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $364,900 Active 124 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $364,900 Active 123 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $364,900 Active 122 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $364,900 Active 121 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $364,900 Active 120 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,975
• − Property taxes: −$5,885
• − Insurance: −$1,962
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,931
• − Management: −$3,931
• − Depreciation: −$11,413
• Taxable income: $43
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10
• After-tax cash flow: $6,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 15 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,535–$31,605 screening

This single-story home in Freeport, Florida, is in good condition with a modern design and ample space. It's move-in ready with minor updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Landscaping front yard — Improves curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen faucet — Modernizes kitchen ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Freeport Elementary School C FL #949/2,144 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Freeport Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High South Walton High School B FL #69/667 Nat'l #2,514/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Freeport

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #9579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freeport, FL
• County: Walton County · 80,014 people
• City population: 15,328
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,328
• Household income: $83,227
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Native American 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.18%
• Current HPI: 350.4692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address listed as Creekside Plan, Freeport, FL 32439Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $379,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garageSpace for 2 vehicles total
• Home design: Creekside plan (new construction plan)Single-family home (plan-based)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,107

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-based)